Joe Schmidt and Andy Farrell were watching very different rugby films this weekend. Super Rugby Pacific opened the floodgates; whilst the Six Nations tightened up in Round 3.

Schmidt steered the Wallabies away from a lee shore last year, tacking into strong headwinds, capping his campaign with a shootout win over England, built on repaired rucking, but faltering when Scotland clicked.

A six-win seven-loss year is clearly an improvement over 2023 doom. Lame penalties for dirty cleaning were down, set pieces were less wobbly, and starter plays hummed.

Schmidt knows conceding 30.2 points per match (remarkably, the best defensive performance was against juggernaut Ireland: 22 points given) cannot win a Lions series.

His mind is no doubt locked like a laser beam on winning that series, as he watches the excruciating tales which accompany great old coaches who either hold on too long or are lapped by new ideas: always shown foremost by losses, long or deep.

Australia head coach Joe Schmidt before the Autumn Nations Series match between Ireland and Australia at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. (Photo By David Fitzgerald/Sportsfile via Getty Images)

The rugby world’s attention will be glued to the Farrell-Schmidt duel, apprentice and maestro, and neither man will indulge excuses. Schmidt has to field a team which does not leak four or five tries to what will be a lethal Lions backline, a level above even the Chiefs or Blues.

Round 2 of Super Rugby yielded 97 tries, which initially does not sound like a spike from the 100 of last year’s second round until we factor in two less games: this year 9.7 tries per game versus an already high 8.3 last year, or a 17% increase.

The overall feeling was ebullience. “How good” was the most stated rhetorical question on rugby X.

But is it? The Western Force marched up the pitch, phase after phase, against what has been the stingiest Aussie team for years, on home turf, and without fear of jackal or pilfer or chop or choke or jarring impact, completed the win almost as if preordained. The Reds are seen as the best hope this season, yet let in 36 Moana points: the Pasifika had the worst (-220) differential last year.

Winning 92-point matches did give the 15,000 or so fans at Suncorp ‘stuff to see’ but it will give Schmidt sleepless nights when he imagines Bundee Aki busting holes to set Huw Jones free and flipping to Duhan van der Merwe or James Lowe on a full head of steam.

Ryan Smith of the Reds csatduring the round two Super Rugby Pacific match between Queensland Reds and Moana Pasifika at Suncorp Stadium, on February 21, 2025, in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Fans who thrive mostly on highlights of games they did not watch fully on free to air TV, will also have enjoyed it as they play fantasy league but it is not long till the red jersey horde descends on golden shores to show what Northern attack rugby can do.

In Cardiff, Wales went toe to toe with Grand Slam aspirant Ireland, seeking three crowns in a row, and at 18-18 after an hour, we saw how much a change in tone at the top can do: along with saner selections by an attack coach (a ten at ten, 12 at 12 and the form Premiership 13 in the saddle). Wales developed far more line breaks, busted more tackles, and ran with joy, scoring their best tries in ages. Against Italy, 13 starter plays yielded one metre. Against the world’s second or third-best team: hundreds. Ireland had too much in the tank, but Lions hopeful and spiral expert Sam Prendergast was road kill for the big Welsh runners.

At Twickenham, the vaunted ‘best backline in the world’ did everything except win. Scotland did complete the third pass and when they did, they were off to the races up the left. They did guard their ruck edges, formed their Six Nations best maul and they did not fade in the final chukka. Their third try looked to have sealed it, but 0/3 off tee is doom in Tests; in general, Finn Russell had an off day with his boot.

England did (importantly) kick 35-plus times, and tried to keep the game in the middle, maxing out carries within a few metres of the prior ruck, scrummed to penalty, and found blindside moments.

But, Steve Borthwick will bemoan his tacklers not going high enough to kill Scottish offloads; as well as their defence-in-transition losing their hold-fold shape over five times.

Based on this round, within the larger context of the tournament, but not calling on the distant past or prior Lions tours, who should be in the Lions game day 23?

Loosehead prop: Ellis Genge has led the Six Nations for years in looking scary, flaring his nostrils, and sledge material. But he is backing it up, seeing off all tightheads three weeks in a row: this time most importantly, shunting pencilled-in Lion Zander Fagerson backwards before penalties were given and then milking that ascendancy during a vital phase when England was hanging on by a thread. His carry-clean game is angry rhino-inspired. With Andrew Porter’s technique very much a risk to take into a Lions match against Taniela Tupou and Allan Alaalotoa, hard-carrying, hair-trimmed Pierre Schoeman looks safer each day.

Hooker: Dan Sheehan seemed to be weighed down a bit by captaincy, but is still the best all-skill rake in the North. The two English hookers, Luke Cowan-Dickie and old Jamie George, were both impressive, but George’s pinpoint accuracy at lineout and ability to lead a pack give him the reserve 16 jersey.

Tighthead prop: Will Stuart played four minutes without a boot and still did his job. The big quiet man from Bath is steadily making a claim to be the bedrock of the Lions scrum. He would be a good foil for Angus Bell, with his studious approach to scrummaging. Finlay Bealham has had a good tournament thus far, and when he came on with the game in the balance and Wales on top of the set piece, he turned the tide. As Fagerson struggles, Bealham sets up a poignant return to Australia.

Locks: Eighty-minute captain Maro Itoje is not a strong ball carrier, a fact he admits, but he is still one of the world’s best carrier-destroyers, almost a torpedo morphing into a giant squid of malice. He has been a big part of why England is winning close games they would have found a way to lose last season. Tadgh Beirne sees the game better than almost anyone in packland, showing the referee a pilfer, putting it back down and turning to receive high fives. He can call and steal a lineout, and played more like a classic lock this week, which Ireland needed against the inflamed Daffyd Jenkins and big Will Rowland. Off the bench, posh hard man James Ryan just nips blue-collar Jonny Gray, which is tough on lineout caller Ollie Chessum, who seemed to want to bring the Calcutta Cup home just about more than anyone else.

England’s Maro Itoje runs the ball against Fiji. (Photo by Gaspafotos/MB Media/Getty Images)

Blindside flank: Peter O’Mahony may be past his best nowadays, but he tried to tackle 20 Welshmen and almost did. He is still a wise lineout detective and was in every scuffle. England’s system of loosies make it hard to know if Ben Curry was a six or a seven; but he was damn nearly the man of the match off the bench. However, Jamie Ritchie was superb in all aspects and nips the supernatural Jac Morgan, who is the perfect bench man with his six-seven blend.

Openside flank: Squatbody Tommy Reffell is an old-school Pocockian hedgehog and gave the Irish ruck fits. Tom and Ben Curry look more identical by the day; soon Bongi Mbonambi will have words with Ben, too. Rory Darge never quits; neither does Josh van der Flier. But in all the confusion about numbers and roles, we will reward loud-clapping carry on man Ben Earl who seemed to play to the ball more than usual and carried demonically.

No. 8: Caelan Doris finally missed a Test for Ireland and in steps his Dublin brother Jack Conan for a “triple double” (10 carry 10 tackle 10 pass) game, eclipsing gainline monsters Jack Dempsey, Taulupe Faletau and Tom Willis. This pack would surely not get along very well, but if they took out all their nastiness on the Wallabies, it could be trouble.

Scrumhalf: Jamison Gibson-Park was awarded Player of the Match but when the camera swung to him, a teammate play-gouged him, and shielded his face from view. This is a metaphor for how understated this Māori All Black is, and how good he makes those around him, including a novice playmaker at ten. He surely has the Lions halfback position. Ben White and Alex Mitchell are in a straight shootout for understudy. Even if booed by Twickenham Man, Mitchell’s box kicks were crucial: booming problems for the Scots. White takes it with his superb support line for Duhan van der Merwe to find and his key snipes.

Flyhalf: Finn Russell has shown alarming signs of decline these three rounds but until this weekend his excellent tee work was not part of the plot. Now it is. Meanwhile Fin Smith can do no wrong. Prendergast was not good defensively, and was caught on the loop by the Welsh terriers. Jack Crowley seems made perfectly for that style of match, and Munster fans will be baying for a start against brutalist France. The Northampton Saint was top tackler for England and shows no nerves.

Inside centre: Leinster rushman Garry Ringrose blitzed a face instead of ribs, which would have been a candidate for being sent off in the old old day or a red red in the old days but was merely given a bunker red-20 (but as is the style now, just referred to as a red, implicitly showing you will have go full MMA to get the proper red). On comes Bundee Aki after 20 minutes and changes the shape of the midfield tussle, which Max Llewellyn had ruled prior. Aki is not just a ruck-setting brute; he sees the game well and creates seams for his outside backs. Henry Slade and Ollie Lawrence switch positions quite often; Slade takes up space and whilst Lawrence did break a Russell tackle attempt near the end of the first half, he did the only thing he should not have: a chicken wing out of bounds.

No. 13: Llewellyn should have been in this slot all three rounds but ex-coach Warren Gatland had the blind spot older coaches seem to get, but handsome Huw Jones looks scary every single time he sees ball. He is looking more and more like a nailed on starter for Suncorp.

Wingers: The Afrikaner Android loves to play England: he was unplayable but did not see enough ball with Russell having an off day and Blair Kinghorn a bit of a black hole. James Lowe uses his bum a bit like Charles Barkley, the Round Mound of Rebound, did to box out in the NBA. Nobody seems to be able to manhandle him; and he showed great basketball tipoff skills for a try assist in the sky. Both men are left wings, but Duhan crops up on the right as well, and has never learned to carry the ball in the correct hand. He nips the scatterback Kyle Rowe. Mention for Tommy Freeman for making the referee think he scored, which is in the end, the point of rugby.

Flyhalf: Marcus Smith did not have a good day at the back but most fullbacks struggle to be anything other than a speed bump for van der Merwe in full flight. Kinghorn’s big boot will appeal to Farrell. Both are versatile backline players: vital. With both Irish and Welsh fullbacks just about average on the day. Nobody is bothering Hugo Keenan, but he was dormant.

Lions Team after Round 3:

Ellis Genge (ENG), Dan Sheehan (IRE), Will Stuart (ENG), Maro Itoje (ENG), Tadgh Beirne (IRE), Jamie Ritchie (SCO), Ben Earl (ENG), Jack Conan (IRE), Jamison Gibson-Park (IRE), Fin Smith (ENG), James Lowe (IRE), Bundee Aki (IRE), Huw Jones (SCO), Duhan van der Merwe (SCO), Blair Kinghorn (SCO).

Bench: Jamie George (ENG), Pierre Schoeman (SCO), Finlay Bealham (IRE), James Ryan (IRE), Jac Morgan (WAL), Ben White (SCO), Finn Russell (SCO), Marcus Smith (ENG).