One should always take pre-season results with a grain of salt – but when one team does something that can’t possibly be replicated once the real stuff starts, especially when they do it against the unbackable favourite for the wooden spoon, things become even grainier and saltier.
That’s basically the rub of Collingwood’s big win over Richmond under the watchful eye of the massive Carlton logo at Ikon Park: the Tigers, whose young guns were mostly handled with kiddie gloves – the injured Sam Lalor excepted – were sloppy but had no lack of heart or will; while the Pies basically couldn’t miss all night.
They were 20.1 early in the last quarter – that sole behind a rushed one – before a pair of difficult misses from Dan Houston and Jamie Elliott with less than 10 minutes to go dented the remarkable ledge, and led to a swathe of normalising behinds when it mattered least.
Obviously, that’s unsustainable… right?
Here’s what we learned from the Magpies’ 83-point win over Richmond.
Unpacking Pies’ crazy accuracy
No, Collingwood won’t be kicking 21.6 again anytime soon – but I’d argue it wasn’t quite as unlikely as it appears.
This wasn’t a case of kicking goals out their backsides where every half-attempt at the big sticks miraculously bent through as if willed there by the footy gods themselves – in fact, it probably says more about Richmond, and how other sides will likely attack them.
The Pies were intent on driving the ball right to the toughest spot to defend – the hot spot, 15-20 metres out from goal – and challeging an undersized, inexperienced, Noah Balta-less Tigers backline to stop them.
Tim Membrey, Brody Mihocek and Dan McStay, consequently, looked dangerous every time the ball went near them, while Bobby Hill and Jamie Elliott were damaging either crumbing at their heels or leading up into space caused by the Tigers reflexively flooding that hot spot in anticipation.
Of the goals, maybe a close-to-home soccer from Mihocek and 55m roost from Darcy Cameron were about the unlikeliest kicked by the Pies; the rest you’d back each goalscorer to nail more often than not, with the surprise more that the law of averages didn’t result in at least one or two shots going awry.
It’s the peril of playing a team like Richmond at this point: everything you do, even if it’s executed splendidly, comes with an asterisk.
Daicos to defence a winner
32 disposals and six inside 50s from 59 per cent game time made this a pretty standard Nick Daicos masterclass – but it was his brother, for once, who made for more interesting viewing on Wednesday night.
Moved from his customary wing to half-back, Josh made for a fascinating position change 11 days out from the Pies’ season opener – and together with new recruit Dan Houston, it spoke of a definite push from Craig McRae to double down on a major strength of 2023 that was curbed last season.
The Pies’ electric, slingshot style turning defence into attack was the exhilarating cornerstone of their premiership, but with teams clamping down and Nick Daicos used permanently in midfield, they struggled to find the same fluency, with the result that their scores per game generated from defensive half fell by 10 points per game.
Again, it comes with the asterisk of their opponent being probably the weakest team going around, but you can’t deny the pair were excellent both as distributors coming out of defence and then roaming further afield to impact the scoreboard with a goal apiece.
With 12 score involvements and nearly 900 metres gained between them, the pair made good use of their 27 and 22 touches respectively, and it was clear the Pies were keen to get the ball in their hands wherever possible.
Just as interestingly, the vacant wing position was filled by Patrick Lipinski, who simply racked up the stats with 37 disposals and 14 marks. Not as precise as either Daicos but adept at finding space and good overhead, there’s definitely a spot on that wing with his name on it if Josh Daicos finds a permanent home in defence.
Dan Houston. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Tigers refuse to rush young guns
The Tigers, of course, come into 2025 with six players taken in the top 23 of last year’s draft – Sam Lalor, Josh Smillie, Taj Hotton, Jonty Faull, Luke Trainor and Harry Armstrong, with Thomas Sims not far behind at pick 28.
But if you thought that group was set to be front and centre of everything Richmond in 2025, think again.
Lalor is sidelined with a broken jaw, while Hotton and Faull are dealing with long-term injuries and Smillie didn’t feature against the Pies; of the remaining three, none played more than 49 per cent game time, with Sims not seen until deep into the last quarter and not touching the ball.
Trainor was clearly the standout, and looks certain to debut in Round 1 after an excellent second half with 12 disposals at 91 per cent efficiency.
The reality for Richmond is that they are at ground zero of a rebuild that will take, at a charitable estimate, three years to even begin to bear fruit. For now, at least, it’s the usual suspects that will be leading the way at Tigerland, with Jacob Hopper, Kamdyn McIntosh, Jayden Short, Jack Ross and Toby Nankervis the leading disposal-winners on Wednesday night. Short’s 749 metres gained, 662 to half time, at least suggests the 2020 Jack Dyer Medallist is back to his best after a lean 2024.
Still, there were positive signs from those with more than a single pre-season under their belt.
Jacob Bauer, briefly sighted last season, looks a handy second tall option if Tom Lynch can get his body right, finishing with two goals and showing strong hands and a willingness to crash packs; Jacob Blight offers plenty as an intercepting tall defender even if he’s going to be asked to compete against some of the game’s best key forwards, and was regularly outpointed by one of those in Brody Mihocek (four goals); and Tom Brown’s composure and safe kicking coming out of defence stands out among teammates who notably lack his either.
Kamdyn McIntosh made a brief, almost half-hearted attempt to tag Nick Daicos, but racked up the footy playing as a near-permanent inside midfielder regardless – it’s hard to know what to make of that move given Lalor’s absence and Tim Taranto’s sparing use, but you have to feel for Adem Yze if a 30-year old wingman whose best footy is about five years in the rearview mirror has to be an on-ball stop-gap while miles go into the legs of the youngsters.
To put it simply: this year is going to be a long, hard slog, Tigers fans, with occasional patches of excitement and a smattering of premiership heroes to remind you of the good old days. But you knew that already.
Pies recruits a perfect fit
Sometimes it takes a while for a player to fit into the system at a new club, but that doesn’t appear the case at Collingwood.
All three of the Pies’ major off-season recruits – Dan Houston, Harry Perryman and Tim Membrey – slotted seamlessly into clearly defined roles against the Tigers; and just as importantly, all address the Pies’ most pressing needs.
Houston, as aforementioned, gives Collingwood extra oomph from the back end of the ground, and his penchant to sneak up the ground and shoot at goal from outside 50 with his raking right boot fits right into McRae’s wheelhouse of ultra-aggression from his defenders.
He’s got a licence to go for it, and other clubs had better make sure they’re switched on when any Magpie marks in the 40-70m range from the big sticks.
You can basically lock Perryman in alongside Nick Daicos as a starting centre-bounce midfielder; a tackling machine, his 10 hugs were the most on the ground, and he looks set to be a Josh Dunkley-type defensive mid to enable Daicos to do Daicos things. In short, exactly what they picked him up for, and a boost for a side who was noticeably leakier from stoppages in 2024 compared to the premiership year.
Membrey is honestly just annoying: for St Kilda to simply give up a strong-marking, accurate-kicking, mobile and smart mid-sized forward and let him walk to the club that most badly needed a player exactly like that pretty much sums up both these two clubs’ list management over the years.
An ideal foil for the bigger Brody Mihocek, Membrey fits perfectly into a forward line with plenty of smalls but lacking in marking options. Notably, though, his four goals against the Tigers came without a single mark inside 50, as he proved adept at buttering up from contests and even getting on the end of a stoppage goal instead.
Only three Pies kicked more than 20 goals in 2024, with Bobby Hill’s 30 the highest.
With the quality of service he’ll receive from the Daicoses, Scott Pendlebury, Houston, Steele Sidebottom et.al further afield, you can practically pencil Membrey in to do what he has done in seven of the last nine seasons: kick between 30 and 45 goals.
And that makes Collingwood’s attack look substantially more menacing at a stroke.
