Premiership windows are never easy to locate – in the NRL only a handful of clubs at any given time are in the sweet spot where a title is a genuine possibility.
Most of the time clubs are in denial as their brief premiership window is closing and their chances at a premiership are fading fast or they’re trying to jimmy the damn thing open after years of being on the outside looking in.
Penrith and Melbourne are the only two clubs who could claim their premiership window is wide open in 2025 but there are a few teams who are a puncher’s chance of getting the jump over last year’s grand final combatants.
Manly are one of the few teams who could conceivably end up as the last team standing on the first Sunday in October after rebuilding over the past couple of years after the second coming of Des Hasler led to his abrupt departure amid claims, counter-claims and eventually legal claims.
But the Sea Eagles’ premiership window could only be open for a year or two as their on-field general Daly Cherry-Evans nears retirement and their best player, star fullback Tom Trbojevic, looks to make the most of what should be the best years of his career.
Unfortunately for them, Trbojevic has averaged a mere 12.5 matches over the past six seasons – even when he won the Dally M Medal in 2021, he only played 18 times.
On the upside, he managed 20 appearances in Manly maroon last year for the first time since 2018 although a mid-season hamstring strain and shoulder damage on the eve of the playoffs were as untimely as could be.
When he was on the park last year, Tommy Turbo fired in 17 tries and set up 21 to prove once and for all that he is still up to the demands of playing fullback after the briefest of flirtations at centre.
Anthony Seibold recently rated Trbojevic as one of the best two fullbacks in the game alongside Panthers star Dylan Edwards and it’s a close-run thing between Manly’s No.1 gun and Brisbane’s Reece Walsh for runner-up status – both are match-winners of the highest quality when they’re on song but they are no match for Edwards’ consistent top-class performances in every facet of the role.
Seibold is also at a curious point in his career. He found instant success at the Rabbitohs after taking over from Michael Maguire in 2018, lifting the team from 12th the year before to a preliminary final appearance against the eventual premiers in the Roosters on the way to claiming Dally M Coach of the Year honours at his first attempt.
And when Brisbane made him an offer too good to refuse to replace Wayne Bennett, which turned into a straight swap, which was then brought forward 12 months, his time at the Broncos lurched from under-achievement in his first year when they bombed out of the first round of the playoffs via a 58-0 shellacking to Parramatta before turning to disaster when the NRL’s biggest club was handed the only wooden spoon in its proud history, leading to Seibold’s abrupt exit.
He made mistakes during his costly Broncos misadventure, as most young coaches do, but the club’s fall from grace was largely due to a poorly constructed roster with too many players past their prime in Darius Boyd, Alex Glenn and Matt Gillett coupled with future stars not ready to be the nucleus of a successful team in Payne Haas, David Fifita and Tom Dearden.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Seibold has restored his reputation in his first two years at Manly getting them to the semi-final stage last season but this is also a club that expects success and does not tolerate failure.
His short-term future is as safe as it can be after recently agreeing to a contract extension until the end of 2027 but with Penrith’s dynasty perhaps starting to fray at the edges and the latest version of the Storm yet to show they can get over the hump, the door is slightly ajar for a team like Manly, Cronulla, Canterbury, Brisbane or the Cowboys to crash the grand final party.
Like all the teams on the second tier of premiership betting, Manly pretty much need everything to go their way to be any chance of lifting the trophy for the first time since DCE’s rookie year of 2011.
That means Trbojevic’s notoriously fragile 28-year-old body staying on the field and Cherry-Evans continuing to prove that wisdom comes with age as the oldest and smartest operator in the NRL at getting his team where they need to be.
The other ingredients are there for a title contender – Jake Trbojevic is the leader of a bunch of hard-working forwards with Taniela Paseka providing the size up front and Haumole Olakau’atu bringing the X-factor on the edge.
Luke Brooks found his niche last season as the secondary playmaking option picking and choosing his moments to support Cherry-Evans and when it comes to pace in the outside backs, the quartet of Jason Saab, Tolu Koula, Lehi Hopoate and Reuben Garrick are the quickest in the competition.
Their first-up assignment on Saturday night is to repel one of the teams likely to also be challenging for the top four at season’s end in North Queensland.
The premiership window has finally reopened at Brookvale and even if they only have a genuine shot at the title for a season or two, it’s music to the ears of Manly fans after a measly three playoff wins over the past decade.
