The ACT Brumbies’ uncharacteristically volatile start to the season isn’t as bad as it looks, however, nor is it a quick fix, meaning this weekend’s game against the Blues could weigh heavily on how their season plays out.

While their structure and patterns have improved, the men from the Capital Territory have been missing firepower, the big guns, and it’s cost them in the close-quarter melees and ultimately on the ladder.

The absence of Rob Valetini and Tom Hooper, as well as new recruits Tuaina Taii Tualima and David Feliuai, has meant they’ve missed the extra bulk to push their advantage, or to even the odds when they’ve been backed into a corner.

It only takes a quick glance at the stats from the Brumbies games against the Force and Chiefs to see where the battleground will be against the Blues.

(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

Against the Chiefs, the starting forward pack made a total of 22 post-contact metres (PCMs) combined, compared to 195 PCMs against the Force a week earlier.

Both were losing efforts, in both games the Brumbies scored more than 30 points and conceded more than 40 points, but the difference in PCMs is stark.

The reason why PCMs is specifically important this weekend, is because both the Blues and the Chiefs want to own the centre of the field.

They are the two heavyweight packs, hence it’s a gameplan which suits their rosters.

Another reason why PCMs is important is because rugby, fundamentally, is about winning collisions, and PCMs are a good general indicator of who is winning those collisions.

While PCMs can tell a part of the collisions’ story, defensive numbers can tell us another part.

In round 3, the Chiefs tackled at 90 per cent, making three dominant hits, whereas the Blues tackled at 88 per cent making 13 dominant hits against the Hurricanes, highlighting just how confrontational Vern Cotter’s men are in contact.

Something which paints a broader picture of the type of contest the Brumbies are heading into is that the Chiefs and Blues racked-up 53 and 59 PCMs respectively last round, showcasing the level at which all four sides are playing at.

Hence, the centre of the pitch is where the Chiefs, and the Blues want to force opposition attacks and it’s where they want to dominate their opponents when they have ball in hand.

It’s an attritional gameplan, putting opponents in the pressure cooker until they crack, and this weekend the Brumbies cannot afford to do so.

(Photo by Dave Rowland/Getty Images)

However, what’s encouraging for Stephen Larkham and his men, is they run their systems so well and know their detail so precisely that they matched the Chiefs for 40 minutes just based on system and gameplan alone.

However, as the game drew on, that power imbalance became too much, and that’s what the Brumbies must avoid against the Blues.

It’s why players like Feliuai and Hooper are so important this weekend.

To highlight further why PCMs and big ball carriers are so important for the Brumbies against the Blues, we must understand the their gameplan.

In the clip below is the key to how the Brums’ system was able to bait the Chiefs’ melee-oriented defence and in turn score their early tries.

Although the Brumbies’ contacts aren’t dominant in the sense of PCMs, their extremely well-connected ball carrier, cleaner, and sealer were able to offset this with lightning quick ball at the ruck.

No.9 Ryan Lonergan is picking pod runners either side of the ruck, acting as a pendulum to force the Chiefs’ gaze and focus inwards.

This seemingly futile exercised lulled the Chiefs into a false sense of control, even though Luke Reimer can be seen out wide with his arm up calling for the ball, in 15m of space.

When Lonergan finally decided to shift wide, the well-oiled Brumby side created an overlap seemingly out of nothing in one swift sweep of the backs, sending Reimer cannoning deep into the Chiefs 22m zone.

The reason for highlighting this passage of play is that had a Valetini been one of those carriers in tight, he assuredly would get PCMs, and this would suck the Chiefs’ gaze further inwards, making the space on the edges even greater.

Tualima is not in the matchday 23 this week after contracting dengue fever on the Brums’ trip to Fiji, but it’s up to the bigger bodies of Feliuai and Hooper to provide this starch at the weekend.

The Blues won’t be unprepared for this gameplan, they’ll have studied how effectively the Brumbies were able to manipulate the Chiefs’ defence, and how easily Nick Frost and Declan Meredith scored their tries in the corners.

However, having a plan is one thing, executing it is another, and while Cotters’ men are the champs, they have been far from untouchable in the opening stages of this season.

The Brumbies’ attack works as well as it does because everyone knows their role, but bulk is the missing weapon in their arsenal.

Coach Larkham has selected an overall bigger pack this weekend and has shifted some key men to the bench to account for the 80-minute contest at Eden Park.

Losing to the Chiefs, who are currently in a class of their own this early in the season, is one thing, but if Larkham and his men want to stop being the bridesmaids, these are the games they must start winning.