I can’t bring myself to tip Essendon, either; you can usually expect the team at the centre of week-long media scrutiny to improve their intensity and endeavour considerably, but I’m not sure how they’ll stop Port Adelaide’s array of marking forwards even with Jordan Ridley back in the frame. You surely can’t tip a team that just leaked 161 points, either.

Friday night is another hard one – Carlton’s disastrous start to the year masks that they were very competitive against an excellent Hawthorn, and a still-depleted Bulldogs remain ripe for the picking. Charlie Curnow, however underdone he is, surely can’t have a second off night in a row… right?

It’s on Saturday where I expect the upsets will lie: I still don’t trust Gold Coast as far as I can throw them, and at the MCG I’m expecting Melbourne to channel a week’s worth of frustration into a vastly improved performance. It’ll be low-scoring, most likely, but Max Gawn has plenty of reason to show Jarrod Witts why he remains the best ruckman in the game.

Slightly more controversially, I’m going against the reigning premiers on Saturday night; Brisbane got out of jail against West Coast last week while Geelong narrowly missed out on doing the same against St Kilda, but with wet conditions forecast and Bailey Smith likely back, I think the Cats have the midfield now to drown the Lions out. Plus, they knocked over the Lions in the wet at the Gabba this time 12 months ago.

Christian Petracca. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Dem Panopoulos

Essendon, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Geelong, Adelaide, Fremantle

It was a successful weekend that last one – good footy, exciting results and almost perfect weather all round.

We’re facing a bit of a fizzer in the Thursday night fixture this week, although the results for both teams went exactly as expected in Round 2. Jordan Ridley’s return is huge for the structure of the Bombers; their efforts were poor last week, but teams can easily apply themselves better.

While Port loves playing at Marvel, they’re depleted and I really like this matchup for the hosts given the big inclusion. Expect overreactions galore out of this one either way.

The Bulldogs will fancy their chances against the Blues, who are in dire need of a victory. Michael Voss really isn’t doing himself any favours tactically and Luke Beveridge is adjusting to suit the current game and the squad available to him. That’s good enough for me.

I think Gold Coast plays finals this season, which means it’s a huge game on Saturday. Melbourne have had an up-and-down start to the season but they’re still a stern test. We have no evidence of the Suns being trustworthy over their history, yet we can still believe.

The Saints should knock the Tigers off a couple of hours later.

Hawthorn haven’t yet strung together four full quarters of quality footy, yet they’re always a step ahead of the opposition and feel in control. GWS is a challenge – they should have plenty of inclusions, but perhaps at the cost of tactical volatility.

Inclement conditions in Brisbane feels appropriate given this is the rescheduled game from Opening Round. I actually like Geelong’s mobility in the wet – it should be a high-quality game on hand regardless of the rain.

Not to be too repetitive, but I’m holding all judgements and adjustments on those teams playing Sunday until after a month’s worth of footy. Adelaide’s eye-catching, offensive footy is offset by playing depleted opposition. They should be too good for North, but the visiting team’s structure really holds strong against these sorts of teams. It’s why they beat Melbourne, why they should have beaten the Bulldogs and why they’ll make this a closer game than many anticipate.

Finally, it’s the Derby – it’s rare that Fremantle and West Coast are occupying the bottom two spots on the ladder. Both have had patches of great play and had disappointment in others, but Fremantle’s first win looms large. 

Patrick Cripps of the Blues celebrates his teams win on the final siren during the round two AFL match between the Western Bulldogs and the Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium on March 24, 2022 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Darrian Traynor / Getty Images)

Liam Salter

Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Brisbane, Adelaide, Fremantle

There’s times I’d say ‘let’s get the easy ones out of the way first’, but, uh, not this week. There’s not a game over Round 3 that’s a certainty, which usually means chaos for tips. Woohoo!

It’s difficult to back a team that kicked triple figures and still lost by 10 goals at the best of times. But Essendon now run into an under-pressure Port (nope, a routine win over the Tigers at Adelaide Oval doesn’t impress me), and with recency bias, I suspect the Power are strong enough here.

Friday is perhaps the most difficult tip of the week. Ask a Carlton fan (I’ve asked multiple), and they’re nervous. Ask a Doggies fan (ditto), and they’re petrified.

If you’re a statistics fiend, here’s a fun one: the Blues have never beaten the Dogs at Marvel while listed as the ‘home team’. Can’t argue with that. 

Speedrunning through Saturday’s games, the MCG’s Demons-Suns encounter is sneakily an enticing one, with the Dees needing to bounce back and the Suns wanting to go 2-0 away from home (and in the season so far). Let’s go, Queensland!

Up next, and if the Saints play anything remotely like last week, they win their clash with Richmond – can you trust ’em too, though? I’m relying on it. 

The Hawks are stupid good, but I can’t drop the feeling they’re a little overrated. A good test are the Giants, with Tassie’s setting leaning me towards Sam Mitchell’s men.

At the same time, the cyclone-delayed Lions-Cats clash may be affected by heavy rain. Hah. At home, I’m leaning to the Lions. 

Sunday’s clashes are, genuinely, really interesting. I absolutely loved North’s win last week – yes, the Dees were below their best, and yes, the Kangaroos need to back it up. But a (maybe) very good Adelaide is a perfect barometer to measure how ‘back’ North is. This will be the Crows’ to lose, easily, but I’m lowkey keen to watch this – expect some fun footy.

And the game I don’t want to talk about, let alone think about: the Derby. With respect, this isn’t about the Eagles – this game is about Freo. Lose this, and discourse about Justin Longmuir’s future will grow unbearable. Win this – by any margin – and relief will be palpable.

I’m tipping the Dockers – we (unbiasedly) remain a stronger team, with more to lose – but I’m scared. 

Round 3	Tim	Dem	Liam	Crowd
ESS vs PA	PA	ESS	PA	?
CAR vs WB	WB	WB	WB	?
MEL vs GCS	MEL	GCS	GCS	?
STK vs RCH	STK	STK	STK	?
HAW vs GWS	HAW	HAW	HAW	?
BL vs GEE	GEE	GEE	BL	?
ADE vs NM	ADE	ADE	ADE	?
WCE vs FRE	FRE	FRE	FRE	?
LAST WEEK	5	6	5	5
ROLLING TOTAL	12	14	11	14