Warren Buffett’s Resounding Message to Wall Street, Delivered Over a Number of Years, Couldn’t Be Clearer. And It May Change the Way You Invest Right Now.


Investors look to Warren Buffett for guidance because he’s proven he can weather any market storm. That’s even earned him the nickname the Oracle of Omaha (his hometown), as over time, he’s generally made just the right moves at just the right time. A recent example: Buffett sold positions in S&P 500 index funds in the fourth quarter, locking in gains before the benchmark went on to decline.

This top investor doesn’t look into a crystal ball when planning his moves, but instead considers key elements like valuation. And the index’s shift into one of its most expensive periods ever may have helped prompt him to hit the “sell” button on the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust in the quarter.

Of course, Buffett isn’t one to stand up and comment on the situation with each market movement. But over the years, the billionaire has offered many thoughts on his strategy, the market, and investing in general. For example, we know he appreciates quality companies trading for reasonable prices; we also know he doesn’t go for trends, and favors holding stocks for the long term.

Over the years, Buffett has repeated one particular idea several times, in different ways. This resounding message to Wall Street couldn’t be clearer, and it may change the way you see the market and invest right now. Let’s listen in.

Warren Buffett is seen at an event.
Image source: The Motley Fool.

First, though, let’s take a quick look at the recent investing environment. Stocks soared over the past two years on optimism about a lower-interest-rate environment ahead, and the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to transform how work is done. Lower rates offer companies an easier path to growth — and AI has been seen as a technology that could unlock efficiency, cost savings, and more for companies.

All of this drove stocks to one of their most expensive levels ever as measured by the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, a metric that considers stock price and earnings over a 10-year period to adjust for shifts in the economy. It reached a level of 35, something it’s only done twice before since the S&P 500 launched as a 500-company index in the 1950s.

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio Chart
S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts.

However, stocks have recently retreated on concerns that President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports will hurt companies’ earnings and the general economy. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both slipped into correction territory earlier this month, though the S&P 500 has since exited the correction zone.

Now let’s turn to Buffett’s message to Wall Street, one that he’s repeated over the years. Two quotes in particular express it:

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