Investor Vijay Kedia believes the recent US tariff hike on Indian goods may be a turning point, not a setback. Reacting to Washington’s move to impose 27 per cent “reciprocal tariffs” on Indian imports, Kedia said this could mark “a new beginning for India.”
“When challenges corner us, transformation begins. The US tariffs may seem like a hurdle — but we’ve seen enough market cycles to know: this could be India’s defining moment,” Kedia wrote on X. He added, “Not just economic but emotional — a renewed faith in our capacity to build, innovate, and lead. As an investor, I’ve always believed in India’s long-term story. This isn’t a setback — it’s the spark of a new era. Adversity doesn’t break us. It builds us. The best is yet to come.”
Kedia had earlier written, “The US’s current stance may seem tough, but it could be a blessing in disguise — driving India toward greater self-reliance and inner strength. In adversity, we often find our true direction.”
His optimistic outlook comes even as others like Kotak Mutual Fund MD Nilesh Shah sounded a more cautionary note on the potential fallout. “President Trump is proving what Sant Tulsidas wrote centuries ago: ‘Samrath ko nahi dosh gosain’. WTO is meant for weak nations. Strong nations can do what they want,” Shah wrote.
Citing historical parallels, Shah warned that past mass tariff impositions — in 1828 and 1930 — had preceded major economic downturns. “There is a high chance that the 2025 mass tariff hike will result in lower growth and higher inflation… For emerging markets, it will be called stagflation, but for the US, it will be called a hard landing.”
India, however, may be better positioned than its Asian peers, he said. “We can bring footwear and garments business from Asian peers if we get our act together. We have to be proactive about Chinese dumping. We should negotiate hard with China to create a win-win situation rather than the usual lose-lose.”
The US has announced a 27 per cent reciprocal tariff on Indian goods starting April 9, citing high existing duties levied by New Delhi. Over 60 countries are impacted by the new regime. While some key sectors like pharma, energy, and semiconductors have been exempted, the move could hit Indian exporters across steel, jewellery, and apparel sectors. India is currently analysing the impact through the commerce ministry.
Despite concerns, analysts and policymakers note that India’s position remains relatively strong. From 2021 to 2024, the US was India’s largest trading partner, and India maintained a healthy trade surplus of over $35 billion in 2023-24.
