With Donald Trump threatening fresh tariffs and China poised to flood global markets with cheap exports, Zoho founder Sridhar Vembu has issued a stark warning: “We will face an onslaught of Chinese goods… navigating this will be a huge challenge.”
In a seven-point note posted on X, Vembu laid out what he calls a survival blueprint for India amid a fracturing world order. From food and energy self-reliance to factory sprints and rupee-based trade, his message is urgent: India must act decisively—not just to protect itself, but to lead where others may falter.
1. Food security comes first
“Thankfully India is self-sufficient in food and we must safeguard our food security,” he says. But self-reliance isn’t enough. As poorer nations face rising stress, India, he argues, must grow more to help those sliding into food crises. “That is our dharma as Bharat.”
He points to the country’s vaccine diplomacy during Covid as proof of what such outreach can accomplish.
2. Link energy to food—and go sustainable
“Energy is food,” Vembu notes, highlighting how modern agriculture depends on fossil-fuel-derived fertilizers and machinery. While India currently benefits from healthy ties with petroleum-exporting nations, he calls for long-term investments in sustainable farming.
That means R&D in water management, livestock and plant ecosystems, electric-powered farm machines—and critically, private model farms and training centres.
3. Brace for China’s overcapacity shock
China, he warns, is not engaging in commercial aggression out of strength, but “desperation in the face of massive overcapacity.” The result? A global glut of everything from steel to EVs.
He suggests one counter-strategy:
“Negotiating to pay for Chinese imports in rupees may be a good starting point… That may also push their companies to buy from us.”
More broadly, renegotiating external debt repayments in rupees could boost India’s export appeal. “The world will likely be more receptive now,” he adds.
4. A 3–5 year sprint to build factories
“We need a 3-5 year sprint to build factories everywhere,” Vembu writes. Importers and distributors of foreign goods must be pushed to manufacture locally, with government incentives sweetening the shift.
His proposal: allow full first-year write-offs for factories set up in backward districts, and a 50% write-off elsewhere to fast-track investments.
5. Import capital goods, not consumer goods
India should prioritize importing machinery and equipment that enables production, not end-user consumer goods. “And negotiate to pay for those capital goods in rupees,” he adds—tying back to his broader push for local currency leverage in trade.
6. Make private R&D the next revolution
India must raise its R&D-to-GDP ratio to 3% within the next 5–10 years, driven primarily by the private sector. Vembu suggests a “CSR-like obligation” to fund R&D, along with quick write-offs for R&D-related capital spending.
7. Share knowledge, don’t hoard it
As India invests in innovation, it must also uplift others, Vembu urges. “They do not have the vast human resources to invent that we do,” he writes.
“When we start inventing, we must share rather than hoard. That is the only way to a more just and more stable global order. That is our dharma as Bharat.”
