We came across a bullish thesis on Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) on Substack by Oguz Erkan. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on UBER. Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)’s share was trading at $73.10 as of April 14th. UBER’s trailing and forward P/E were 16.03 and 27.40 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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Uber represents a uniquely positioned services-based business with a powerful structural advantage in today’s macro environment. With a 5-year revenue CAGR of 40%, a net profit margin of 22%, and a forward P/E of 29, Uber operates the largest global mobility network across ride-hailing and delivery. Unlike asset-heavy businesses that rely on fixed inputs, Uber leverages human time and effort as its primary input, enabling flexible supply, low fixed costs, and localized pricing. This adaptability makes Uber resilient in downturns—drivers adjust in real-time to meet demand, without Uber incurring scaling overhead or the need for layoffs. For instance, unlike a Costco that builds a warehouse to serve tens of thousands and risks underutilization, Uber has already built its platform and can scale dynamically without additional cost.
The company’s pricing also flexes with regional economic conditions—what a ride costs in Los Angeles differs from what it costs in Mexico City, adding a layer of insulation against localized recessions. This agility helps Uber maintain strong margins and return on investment (18%) even amid economic shocks. Many investors wrongly assume Uber will suffer in a recession due to reduced volumes, expecting users to shift to public transit. But in cities where public transit is already excellent, people already use it—Uber isn’t replacing the subway; it’s replacing car ownership. And in uncertain times, people defer car purchases, meaning Uber remains a necessary, cost-efficient mobility option.
Management expects free cash flow to grow nearly 50% by 2027, yet the company trades at just 22x FCF—an attractive multiple for a business of Uber’s quality and growth profile. Given its low capital intensity, recession resilience, and scalable global platform, Uber stands out as one of the most compelling investments in the services economy today.
Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) is on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 166 hedge fund portfolios held UBER at the end of the fourth quarter which was 136 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of UBER as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than UBER but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
