We came across a bullish thesis on Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) on Substack by Jimmy Investor. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BKNG. Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)’s share was trading at $4573.31 as of April 17th. BKNG’s trailing and forward P/E were 26.48 and 21.79 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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The travel industry is undergoing a powerful rebound, with global tourism approaching pre-pandemic levels and leisure travel leading the resurgence. Despite persistent macroeconomic concerns like inflation, consumers remain committed to spending on travel experiences. A major shift in consumer behavior is fueling this recovery—specifically, how people book their trips. Online travel agencies (OTAs) have now become the dominant force, driven by mobile-first platforms, embedded fintech, and dynamic pricing. This transformation is expected to push the OTA market to $1.5 trillion by 2030, growing at nearly 10% annually. Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:BKNG) is ideally positioned to benefit from this structural shift, serving as the travel industry’s operating system. Its suite of brands—Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, Rentalcars.com, and OpenTable—span the entire spectrum of travel services and geographies. The platform covers over 2.7 million properties, offers flights in 54 markets, and rental cars across 52,000+ locations. With its recent strategic evolution toward a balanced merchant/agency model, Booking has gained tighter control over payments, pricing, and margins, enhancing its profitability.
The company’s competitive edge lies in its unmatched global reach, diverse offerings, and heavy investment in AI-powered personalization. Booking’s brand portfolio enables it to target a wide range of travelers while increasing cross-sell opportunities and customer retention. In 2024, it posted $23.7 billion in revenue and $5.8 billion in net income, reflecting a strong 25% margin. Its $7.8 billion in free cash flow—up 12.8% year-over-year—shows the business’s resilience and efficiency. Booking has also initiated a quarterly dividend of $8.75 per share, complementing its ongoing share repurchase strategy. These financial results demonstrate not just current strength but the ability to deliver sustainable shareholder returns.
While the business is subject to cyclical risks like geopolitical shocks or economic downturns, its dominant position insulates it from many competitive threats. Competitors such as Expedia and Airbnb continue to pose challenges, but Booking’s entrenched market leadership, technological innovation, and global brand power position it ahead of the pack. At around $4,200 per share, the stock trades at just 18x projected 2026 earnings—a compelling multiple for a high-quality business growing at 10% annually with industry-leading margins. Investors are looking at a structurally advantaged, cash-generative company that is well-aligned with the future of travel. As Booking continues to deepen its engagement through AI and expand its global footprint, the market may soon recognize its full potential, making the current valuation an attractive entry point with strong upside.
