The Toronto Maple Leafs are up 2-0 in a playoff series for the first time in the Core Four era, yet somehow in a city that typically overreacts to every string of good and bad play, the narrative is that the Ottawa Senators are taking it to them. 

Sports are notorious for producing useless stats, and this series has put forth world record amounts of uncritical thinking. The Leafs have been better than the numbers say they’ve been, and Toronto has kept tight to the very plan they laid out before the playoffs.

The numbers I’m referring to are mostly “zone time” and “shot attempts against.” The Leafs won Game 1 by a score of 6-2 on the backs of three power play goals, which led to Sens coach Travis Green lauding his team’s 5-on-5 dominance in the game. Derek Lalonde joined our post-game panel, and he too talked about liking the Sens at 5-on-5. Tim Stutzle said the same thing heading into Game 2. They definitely carried the play there, no doubt about that.

They just needed to stay out of the box, it was implied, and they’d be fine.

In Game 2, the Sens again out-attempted the Leafs 64-41 at even strength, and offensive zone possession time was about 5:33 to 4:23, again in the Sens favour. 

I have written about stats for many years and worked with the Leafs own R&D team when I was with the Marlies, and I am baffled at how out-of-context numbers are being trotted out. The context, of course, has been the score of the hockey games. 

“Score effects” is the term used for something hockey people have intuitively known about forever: teams in the lead tend to stop pushing and taking chances, instead leaving themselves on the defensive side to limit Grade A’s against. This allows the trailing team – which is pushing and taking chances – to have the puck a bit more while forcing them to go through five defensive guys. In soccer you’d say they “park the bus” in front, which is something the Leafs have made their identity. 

If you’ve followed the Leafs this season, you’ve seen them grow into this Berube-encouraged mindset where they want to pour it on, get a lead, and make the smart, safe choices after that. It took time and consistency, but they’ve bought in.

When the score has been close in these two playoff games – like when it’s been tied – the Leafs have put the boots to the Sens. This is not complicated.

Let’s talk about the following table:

The biggest takeaway here is the total time along the bottom row. There’s only been just over three minutes of game play where one of these teams had offensive zone possession in a tie game. Those numbers go up under “Up 1,” and way up under “Up 2+,” which just goes to show how much of the series so far has been played with the Leafs up two. This also explains a lot of the lopsided totals.

A few additional things on these numbers:

• You do have to give Ottawa credit because they at least have a higher level they can get to when they’re pushing. Not every team, down two goals or not, can take the play to their opponent like the Sens have when chasing. 

• The crux of this all is that the Leafs have elite shooters and another gear when it’s time to push for offence (and that extra gear has been extremely responsive thus far). If they only need to push down on the pedal every so often, they’ll continue to be dangerous.

• I also agree with Kevin Bieksa in that the way the Sens have pursued these games — the aggressive forechecking and finishing checks — could pay dividends later in the series. Toronto’s defencemen are a rugged crew, but they have largely been resigned to going back on pucks, taking hits, and flipping pucks out.

• Toronto’s game plan of “parking the bus” also means being asked to block a lot of shots, and every shot you block brings a slight chance of injury. In Game 2, blocked shots were 32-6 for Toronto, which is both a massive disparity and a testament to the Leafs collective will and commitment. If the opposition is going to score, Toronto wants to make them get some incredible tip, like the one Adam Gaudette scored on, where he’s barely even to the inside, and the shot is from distance.

Now that I’ve emphatically made the point about how the numbers aren’t at all telling the story about a series the Leafs have controlled, allow me to put on my coaching hat.

There’s packing it in, and then there’s stopping playing, and for long stretches of both Games 1 and 2 the Leafs operated as if there were two minutes left rather than 32. You can’t pack it in with just a two-goal lead when there’s two-thirds of a game left. Teams are too good and bounces are too random. You have to keep playing.

What I see mostly is that Berube is in these guys’ heads saying “off the glass and out,” “safe play,” and “get it deep.” But the players have to understand those are defaults for last-second decisions and that what the coach means when he says those things, is “We’re looking to avoid turnovers.” What it all really means is that you should still take what’s given to you and try to make the easy plays, but that’s gotten away from the Leafs so far in this series. 

I thought on breakout touches, there were several instances where they’d just bang it up the wall rather than skating the puck until being pressured, at which point you draw someone to you and open up someone else. 

Skate! Skate first, ask questions later.

These unforced turnovers contribute to more defensive zone time, and it happens at the opposing blue line too. Not clean turnovers, but forfeiting possession. Yes, you want to manage the puck and get it deep. But if they give you the blue line, take the blue line and figure it out from there. You’re better off with offensive zone time than forechecking, so don’t dump it unless pressured.

You may ask: Why is there so much emphasis on “taking care of the puck” in the playoffs? Inexperienced players want to do the same things they do in the regular season, but when playing against tighter defensive teams in the playoffs it gets harder to be cute. The Leafs have been on the wrong end of this in years past. In the first two games of this series, Ottawa hasn’t managed the puck well through the middle, and the Leafs have been able to just kinda snatch it away.

That sort of random tidbit aside, the point of all this is that the Leafs have been the best version of themselves until they’ve taken the lead, then they’ve pulled back and barricaded the doors. From there, the stats show the Sens have bombarded the castle walls, but the fortress has held. It’s been like this since the trade deadline, when Brandon Carlo helped solidify Toronto’s defence pairs and became a big part of a corps that’s content to bend but not break. The Leafs can be better when playing with a lead, but overall they’ve started the series well.

Ottawa is too good a team to go quietly into the night, too resilient, too belligerent, too competitive. They could easily hold serve with two wins in their own barn if the Leafs play like they have when holding the lead, but when the game’s tied. Ottawa is still going to need some saves from Linus Ullmark, and they’re going to need to figure out how to hang with Toronto when the score is tied. 

Having the puck and getting shots is good, but winning the game is better. Looking back into the not-so-distant rearview, Leafs fans could tell you all about that.