For a second successive year, a major talking point at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix was Max Verstappen’s future, and whether it will be with Red Bull.

Verstappen appeared to be on the brink of exiting the team in March last year amid huge instability and in-fighting among Red Bull’s leadership and the Dutchman’s camp. An extremely rough period passed, and Verstappen went on to win a fourth successive drivers’ title, at least temporarily quieting noise around his future in the process.

The speculation has persisted despite Verstappen being officially contracted to Red Bull until the end of 2028. That’s because his deal contains exit clauses.

The avenue by which he reportedly could have exited last year was a clause stating that if Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko left the team, Verstappen could also depart.

This time around, the speculation has been fuelled by Red Bull’s inconsistent start to the season, with many – including Marko – believing the sport’s premier driver will not for long tolerate a car that doesn’t enable him to compete for more titles.

A more standard clause in his contract is understood to give Verstappen the chance to break the contract at the end of the season if he is outside the top three in the Drivers’ Championship at the summer break.

The likelihood of that becoming reality has been swinging dramatically from week to week, or even session to session, during the opening five rounds of the season, with Verstappen often frustratedly struggling in practice before surging into contention in qualifying and races.

After Red Bull’s worst weekend of the season so far in Bahrain, where Verstappen struggled to sixth a week after shocking the pace-setting McLarens to win in Japan, Marko said he had “great concern” over the 27-year-old’s future with the team.

While that concern should have been calmed by Verstappen claiming pole and finishing second in Jeddah to consolidate his third place in the drivers’ standings, plenty was said over the weekend to provide an intriguing update to the big picture surrounding his future.

Wolff: Mercedes haven’t had conversation with Verstappen

When Red Bull were mired in off-track turmoil this time last year, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff launched a very public pursuit of Verstappen as he sought a replacement for the Ferrari-bound Lewis Hamilton.

Wolff eventually admitted defeat in his attempt to sign Verstappen for 2025 as Mercedes paired Italian teenager Kimi Antonelli with George Russell, but the Austrian suggested that he planned to resume his pursuit in the future.

The latest unrest at Red Bull, combined with the fact that neither Russell nor Antonelli have contracts beyond the end of this season, led many to speculate that Mercedes are quietly trying to recruit Verstappen once more.

While the Silver Arrows have been largely uncompetitive during the current generation of regulations that began in 2022, many are tipping them to start strongly upon the introduction of new engines and chassis next year.

It’s for that reason that they are seen as a highly legitimate contender to sign Verstappen, but Wolff is publicly refusing to confirm his interest this time around.

He told Sky Sports F1 on Saturday in Jeddah that Mercedes “haven’t had a conversation” with Verstappen, and reiterated his previous quip that he won’t “flirt outside if I’m happy in the relationship”, in reference to his contentedness with his current driver line-up.

Despite Wolff’s words, few in the paddock believe he would hesitate to pull the trigger if an opportunity to sign Verstappen presented itself.

Would Alonso step aside at Aston Martin?

The other team that Verstappen has been heavily linked with is Aston Martin, with reports in the Italian media last week claiming that the Silverstone-based squad are ready to offer him £226m over three years.

Aston Martin owner Lawrence Stroll is hellbent on making his team a championship contender and has already put several key elements in place with the building of a brand-new factory and the signing of Verstappen’s former Red Bull colleague Adrian Newey as managing technical partner.

The complicating factor in this case is that Aston Martin already have two drivers contracted for the 2026 season, in Fernando Alonso and the owner’s son, Lance Stroll.

The assumption is that Lance is going nowhere while Lawerence remains in charge of the team, so bringing Verstappen in for 2026 would appear to require bringing the 43-year-old Alonso’s career to an end.

Asked on Thursday in Saudi Arabia whether he sees Verstappen as a threat to his 2026 seat, Alonso said: “I don’t think so, as I have a contract for next year.”

The Spaniard would then add that after getting his hands on Aston Martin’s first Newey-designed car in 2026, he would then be ready to move into a different role with the team to facilitate Verstappen’s potential arrival.

Appearing in the team principals’ press conference in Jeddah on Friday, Aston Martin chief Andy Cowell chose to focus on the facts of his contracted 2026 line-up rather than responding to questions about Verstappen.

“We’re incredibly fortunate to have two experienced drivers signed for the next two years,” Cowell said. “That means I can just focus on improving the business and the art of making a fast race car.”

Could Verstappen take a sabbatical?

There have also been murmurings in the paddock that if Verstappen were to opt out of the rest of his Red Bull contract, he may choose to take a sabbatical in 2026, assess the competitive landscape and pick what he feels is the best option for 2027 and beyond.

It’s tough to imagine a driver at the peak of his powers choosing to step away for a year, but Verstappen has often spoken about the challenges of the sport’s gruelling schedule and how much he enjoys downtime with his family and friends.

It’s worth noting that if Verstappen were to take this route, Ferrari could become another option for him with Hamilton’s contract potentially being up at the end of 2026.

The Dutchman has previously said that Ferrari would be “an amazing team to race for” but also caveated that by saying his priority is always to “be in the fastest car”.

Another option for him would be to opt out of his current Red Bull contract, but then re-sign with his current employers for even more than the reported £50m per year that he earns at the moment.

This route would also give Verstappen the chance to sign a new contract with Red Bull for just 2026, rather than through to 2028, which would see him retain flexibility with his options for 2027.

‘A lot of people talking about, except me!’

When the situation was put to Verstappen on Thursday in Jeddah, he was clearly in no mood to create any headlines.

Asked about the noise surrounding his future, Verstappen said: “A lot of people are talking about it, except me.”

“I just want to focus on my car, work with the people in the team. That’s the only thing that I’m thinking about in F1 at the moment. I’m very relaxed.”

Ultimately, if Red Bull continue to provide Verstappen with the level of performance he possessed in Saudi Arabia, the conversation is going to go away as he’ll be in the thick of a battle for a fifth successive title.

However, the fact that Mercedes and Aston Martin are very clearly not ruling out attempting to sign Verstappen for next season is telling, in that it likely suggests they retain some hope of doing so.

It’s fair to assume that should Red Bull’s form remain inconsistent, all eyes in the paddock will be on where Verstappen sits in the drivers’ standings in a couple of months’ time.

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