The margins in a playoff series are ever so small.
The Ottawa Senators found that out the hard way Tuesday night, falling 3-2 in overtime to the Toronto Maple Leafs to go down 2-0 in this first-round series.
“We probably deserved a better fate tonight, but that’s part of playoff hockey,” said coach Travis Green.
The game started off with familiar concerns as the Maple Leafs led 2-0 before the game was 10 minutes old. But the Senators deserve credit for fighting back to force overtime while outplaying the Maple Leafs for the vast majority of the game.
“There’s not one ounce of panic or doubt in this locker room,” said captain Brady Tkachuk of the 2-0 series deficit.
That may be the case, but the Senators certainly have some weaknesses in their game that need to be addressed as the series shifts north.
Despite outshooting and outchancing the Maple Leafs, the Senators lost Game 2 because of some costly plays from two key players, Drake Batherson and Thomas Chabot. So far in this series, those two players have had more bad moments than good.
Entering the season, Chabot and Batherson were regarded more for their offensive skill than defensive know-how, but both showed improvements on that side of the puck this season. Those improvements are starting to unravel in this series and for the second-straight game contributed directly to the Maple Leafs’ opening goal.
William Nylander danced past Chabot while Batherson lost Morgan Rielly on the back post when the Maple Leafs opened the scoring less than four minutes into Game 2. The miscommunication was similar to the breakdown that led to Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s goal in Game 1, when the veteran defenceman skated right down the middle of the slot and fired a puck in.
In Chabot’s case, his play at five-on-five alongside partner Nick Jensen has been declining since January. In Game 2, Chabot and Jensen had an expected goals percentage of 37.9 per cent, which was the worst of the Senators’ three pairs.
Meanwhile, Batherson had a solid Game 1, scoring a goal, but he also took two penalties and made a defensive miscue.
Then on Tuesday, after an incredibly resilient comeback from the Senators to force overtime, Batherson made a careless pass in Toronto’s zone, leading to Max Domi scoring the winner on a shot that Chabot failed to block.
The play exemplified both players’ struggles during the game.
It would be unfair to fully put the blame on Chabot and Batherson for the loss. But it will be much harder for the Senators to come back in the series if the two of them don’t improve their play.
Penalty kill, killing Ottawa’s chances
Four goals allowed shorthanded in 38 seconds. That’s the stat. Through two games, it’s taken Toronto on four power plays that length of time to score four goals. Ottawa’s penalty kill is running at 42 per cent. Awful. Unwinnable.
The diamond zonal formation has not worked all season, and their underlying numbers were worse. When the Senators were shorthanded this season, they had the sixth-worst high-danger chances allowed per 60 minutes, according to Natural Stat Trick. It might be too late now to change the system this season, but it will need to be addressed.
The Maple Leafs haven’t been miles better than the Senators in this series, but the gap in special teams success has been a big difference maker so far.
The slapshot hero or villain — depending on which side of the Battle of Ontario you fall on — Ridly Greig was the main catalyst for the Senators’ surge that began in the second period.
The spark came when Greig and Maple Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz got into a battle early in the second period that ended with both of them getting two minutes for roughing.
Greig didn’t do much to earn his penalty, but the point was he got underneath the goaltender’s skin with his actions.
Stolarz said post-game he didn’t know who he was cross-checking on that play. Whether or not that is true, it was peak playoff shenanigans and only adds to the lore Greig has put together in his short career.
The first chapter, of course, was his slapshot into the empty net last season that ended with a Morgan Rielly five-game suspension for cross-checking Greig in the head. Earlier in the season, Greig spoke to Sportsnet.ca about how that slapshot changed his life because of the backlash he got from Maple Leafs fans.
“I was definitely a little different,” said Greig. “I definitely got a lot of hate for it, but I think from a fan’s perspective, it was entertaining. Whether you hated it or loved it, you probably watched it.”
Greig cultivated his pesting ability during his junior days but now as a pro he’s made himself into an excellent two-way forward. Someone who can score like he did in Game 1 but also provide energy when his team needs to turn a game around.
After Greig’s battle with Stolarz, the Senators flipped the game on its head by outshooting the Maple Leafs 13-3 in the second period and cutting the deficit down to 2-1.
Fellow elite agitator Nick Cousins, who drew into the lineup for Game 2, believes in Greig.
“He’s one of my favourite players to watch. He brings so much energy to our team,” said Cousins. “He’s going to be a big game player for this team for many years to come.”
There are some positives the Senators can lean on as the series switches to the nation’s capital.
The Senators have carried play at five-on-five. And while teams trailing 2-0 have come back to win a series just 13.7 per cent of the time, it can happen when teams play the right way, like the Senators have.
“We controlled a lot of the play, and we’re just doing a lot of little things right, sometimes you don’t get rewarded for it,” said Tkachuk.
The playoffs are the ultimate small sample size theatre, but now it’s time for the Senators to turn process into results.
No matter what happens next, each game of this series is another chance for the Senators players who are just entering their prime to learn what it takes to win in the playoffs.
“It’s just a test of adversity and an opportunity for us to grow and get better and take advantage of all the lessons that we learned,” said Tkachuk.
The next chance to do that comes Thursday night at Canadian Tire Centre.