OTTAWA — Comebacks happen all the time in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
But from down 3-1, it happens more than you think.
In fact, of all the instances of a series hitting 3-1 in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the trailing team has rallied to win 9.2 per cent of the time.
And the Senators’ opponents have been on the wrong side of that once already this decade. In 2021, the Toronto Maple Leafs blew a 3-1 lead to the Montreal Canadiens in the opening round.
“We can’t win the series tomorrow,” said Senators forward Nick Cousins heading into Game 5 (Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET/ 4 p.m. PT on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+).
The Senators feel the series has been played at their tempo, despite the scoreline, and believe if they continue to play the right way, they could make this Battle of Ontario more interesting and enticing.
“I think if you asked us at the beginning of the series how we wanted it to look, it would probably look a lot like the way it has,” said coach Travis Green. “And quite easily, it could be two-two.”
Ottawa’s most veteran player, Claude Giroux, still believes. He experienced a 3-0 playoff comeback with the Philadelphia Flyers back in 2010.
“We lost the first three games, but we felt like it could have went either way,” said Giroux.
Can finally winning an overtime game change the outlook of the series?
“Makes us believe a little bit more,” said Giroux.
After four games, the Senators have more shots, more scoring chances and more high-danger scoring chances and yet are down 3-1.
“Sometimes it’s one or two plays that really make the difference,” said Green.
That’s hockey, a game where one bounce can be the difference. So far, Toronto has been capitalizing on those moments with the second-highest shooting percentage in the playoffs (15 per cent). The number will likely come down, like it did in Game 4, when it was nearly cut in half to just eight. No wonder the Senators won.
When the Senators fell behind 3-0, captain Brady Tkachuk alluded to the 2004 Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox, like the Senators, were the little brother who would always lose to their bigger brother in the New York Yankees.
What happened to the Red Sox in 2004?
Boston reversed swept the Yankees, coming back from down 3-0 in the ALCS to win on the way to the team’s first World Series title in 86 years.
There are some parallels to this Battle of Ontario, with the Senators having never defeated the Maple Leafs in a playoff series.
Cousins mapped it out, similar to the way former Red Sox first baseman Kevin Millar spoke his team’s comeback into existence back in 2004.
“Win one game, make them come back to Ottawa,” said Cousins. “And (then) use our crowd to our advantage for Game 6, and then get another one there and then anything can happen in Game 7.”
If the Senators play like they have so far in the playoffs, they will have a shot to win Game 5 and make things extra spicy in this series.
The pathway is clear, but climbing the mountain will be a massive feat for the Senators.
After Cousins “fired” pucks at good friend and Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz during the warmups before Game 3, the league fined the Senators $25,000 and Cousins $2,083.33.
For the first time since the incident, Cousins spoke to the media.
With a wry smile, Cousins gave the expected hockey answer about the fine, “excited to kind of move on past that.”
Cousins was asked if he was surprised by the fine when Stolarz himself admitted he didn’t notice Cousins shooting a puck near him during warmups.
“Was I surprised? Trick question. Is it not?” said Cousins.
Later, Cousins added he was “maybe a little bit” surprised by the fine.
Playoff shenanigans at the highest of levels.
Nevertheless, Cousins says he knows how to get underneath his former teammate’s skin. The two former Florida Panthers talk once a week, but their friendship has been put on hold during the playoffs. Stolarz’s play wobbled a bit in Game 4 and the Senators hope that the warm-up-gate drama can begin to lead to some mind games for Toronto’s netminder.
“I mean, clearly shooting pucks at him isn’t the play, because he’s been lights out for them,” said Cousins.
Kleven steps up in biggest games
The emergence of Tyler Kleven has become one of the leading positive developments for the Senators in this series.
The 23-year-old defenceman, who just completed his first full NHL season, received some tough love from Green earlier in the season but has developed into someone the Senators can count on in the playoffs.
“(Kleven) he’s a guy that I probably treated differently than (Thomas Chabot) and being very demanding of him, whether it was him being late for a meeting or not quite focused in a meeting,” said Green.
Kleven appreciated that teaching style from Green and assistant coach Nolan Baumgartner throughout the season.
“(Baumgartner) worked with me so much. Just let me play my game on the ice and give me a little bit of a leash at times,” said Kleven about the tough coaching he received.
“Your leash can be shortened at times. And I go out there and I try to make the right plays, but at times I don’t always make the right play. And he’s got to get on me for that. It’s all for the right reason.”
Sometimes the hardest thing for coaches to do is to develop a player while also focusing on winning hockey games. That’s what Green and Baumgartner have done with Kleven.
“Making him accountable to his play, yet still playing him,” said Green about his approach to coaching Kleven.
“(Baumgartner) has done a great job, helping him, teaching him, working with him emotionally, making sure he doesn’t lose his confidence, yet still being demanding. (We tried) to fast track him the best way we can, (while) making sure that the player doesn’t lose his confidence.”
In the playoffs, Kleven has progressed like he did in the regular season, earning more ice time each game. In Game 4, Kleven swatted a puck off the goal line and then helped set up Jake Sanderson for the winner.
“(A) big defenceman that can skate and hit hard (is) hard to find,” said Green.
Heading into this series, Kleven and rookie partner Nikolas Matinpalo were deemed to be Ottawa’s weak spot as the two players had never experienced playoff hockey before. Instead, they’ve shined for Ottawa with the best expected goals share of any Senators defensive pairing at 59 per cent.
The mere fact that the pairing isn’t getting caved in is a promising sign for Ottawa. Kleven will need to continue to be a driver of success as the Senators try to extend this series.
Will the hits take a toll on Toronto?
The Ottawa Senators lead the playoffs in hits at 188, 67 more than the Maple Leafs so far.
“It’s a big part of the playoffs”, said Green on the physicality.
The coach has emphasized a physical presence for his team against Toronto.
The longer the series goes on, it could be a difference maker for Ottawa if Toronto starts to wear down under the physical pressure.
A welcome sign at practice on Monday was the return of Zack MacEwen, who took a leave of absence in January after the death of his father.
“I’m sure whenever anyone goes through trying times, you feel for them. I’ve known Zach a long time, and he’s a passionate man,” said Green. “At the end of the day, you want what’s best for your players.”
Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux
Perron-Cozens-Batherson
*Highmore-Pinto-Amadio
Cousins-Gaudette-Zetterlund
MacEwen
Sanderson-Zub
Chabot-Jensen
Kleven-Matinpalo
* Ridly Greig missed practice but is expected to play in Game 5.
