market strategy: Chakri Lokapriya expects prolonged earnings pressure despite market optimism


“It looks like the volumes have held up and therefore, it has allowed them to beat the numbers. On back that, clearly would buy TVS Motor, but I would not expand and extrapolate TVS Motor results onto the other two wheeler companies because these set of numbers are really-really strong,” says Chakri Lokapriya, CIO-Equities, LGT Wealth.

So far the way how the earning season has panned, have you been really happy with it or do you think that this only just opens a Pandora box and this will only lead to further downgrades?
Chakri Lokapriya: The way the quarter has been panning out is there have been earnings cuts in general and that trend is likely to continue. So, if this trend continues, then Nifty might have an earnings cut anywhere between 3% to 5% that would bring down the overall growth, let us say year-over-year growth to about 8% to 10%.

But I guess the market was kind of anticipating it with Trump tariff wars, all the uncertainties. But now with the interest rate cuts and hopefully there is some kind of stability also, both on the border as well and if all those things happen, then in the second half hopefully with lower interest rates the market will start moving the earnings upwards.

Let me get your view on TVS Motor, what a spectacular number if you look at it on year-on-year basis and if you compare it to what the street was anticipating, they have beaten those estimates. The reported operating margins have come in to around 14% versus 11.3% on year-on-year basis. How should one gauge these numbers and do you think that this would set the benchmark for two wheelers?
Chakri Lokapriya: I am just looking at the numbers on your screen and they seem to be very good, excellent numbers, and they have beaten estimates and the expectation itself was a very strong number. So, on the back of that, TVS Motors is doing an excellent job in execution.

So, it looks like the volumes have held up and therefore, it has allowed them to beat the numbers. On back that, clearly would buy TVS Motor, but I would not expand and extrapolate TVS Motor results onto the other two wheeler companies because these set of numbers are really-really strong.


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