WINNIPEG — Hockey folk often compare a playoff series to a chess match.

Teams, like chess players, test out what they can and can’t do against the opponent. The playoffs are all about making adjustments based on how your opponent reacts. Coaches become grandmasters, matching lines up like a chess player places a knight to control the most dangerous squares. 

But here’s where chess and playoff hockey differ: Logic determines who wins in chess, while momentum and individual performances are the catalyst in a tight playoff series. 

That’s why, even though the series is tied 2-2, the Winnipeg Jets are hardly on a level playing surface against the St. Louis Blues. 

The Jets lost their mojo in St. Louis during Games 3 and 4, with the Blues flat-out outplaying them and outscoring them 12-3. Winnipeg looked nothing like the defensively sound, five-man unit that it was in the regular season. They were loose defensively, struggling to stay on top of their opponents and blowing coverage assignments. And St. Louis made them pay, capitalizing off the rush and down low in the offensive zone. 

They looked like a shadow of the defensively sound juggernaut that picked up its second straight William M. Jennings Trophy in the regular season.

How do the Jets regain their swagger? It comes down to five things.

Winning the Presidents’ Trophy wasn’t what had many believing these Jets were different from seasons past.

Not the version of No. 37 we’ve seen over these last few playoffs. But the lights-out, workhorse goaltender he was in the regular season, where he pushed his way into the Hart Trophy conversation.

Hellebuyck was nothing short of abysmal over Winnipeg’s last two games, sporting an abysmal .744 save percentage and a 7.13 goals-against average. Eric Comrie came out to relieve Hellebuyck in each game.

Simply put, the two-time Vezina Trophy winner needs to find a way to fight through net front traffic and find pucks. The defenceman in front of him might not be doing him any favours (which we’ll get to shortly), but that doesn’t excuse this bad of a performance. 

“Am I going to be better? I am going to be better,” Hellebuyck told reporters on Monday. “I’ve studied goaltending extremely hard. I’ve probably studied the most out of anyone in this world, so I know what to do and how to get my best game.”

Play harder in front of the net 

The Jets are losing one of the most crucial games within a game — the net front battle. 

Hellebuyck isn’t getting enough help in front of him, with the Jets’ undersized blue line struggling to clear out the traffic in front of him.

Luke Schenn was brought in to clean up those messes, but even he hasn’t been as imposing in front of the net. Winnipeg’s top-four — Josh Morrissey, Dylan DeMelo, Neal Pionk and Dylan Samberg — need to punch above their weight. 

“Box out, give our goalies some looks and try to have sticks there,” DeMelo said on Tuesday when asked about what they can do to improve in front of the net. “A very simple game plan, getting it low to high or slinging it from the sides, getting traffic and getting tips, getting some bounces off some bodies that pucks are going by. They’re going to the net and getting rewarded for it.”

Jets’ top offensive players need to elevate their game 

Mind you, the Jets are 2-17 in games where both Scheifele and Connor are held off the scoresheet. 

The Jets wouldn’t be in this series still if it weren’t for those two, who combined for nine points through Games 1 and 2, and Winnipeg outscored St. Louis 4-0 during five-on-five play.

But Games 3 and 4 were a whole different story. St. Louis smothered Winnipeg’s top offensive duo — Scheifele was on the receiving end of nine hits over the last two games — and outscored them 5-1 during five-on-five play. 

Look up and down the Jets lineup and you’ll find plenty of (useful) meat-and-potato players. But with Nikolaj Ehlers out — and Gabriel Vilardi’s effectiveness in question, given that Game 5 will be his first game in over a month — the offensive onus falls almost entirely on Scheifele and Connor. 

Win the special-teams battle 

For a second straight year, the Jets can’t get any momentum from their special teams. 

Winnipeg finished the regular season with the NHL’s best power play (28.9 per cent) and the 13th best penalty kill (79.4 per cent). 

Thus far into the playoffs, the Jets are converting on just 16.7 per cent of their power plays and converting on just 66.7 per cent of their penalty kills. 

Assuming Hellebuyck bounces back and the Jets sort out the mess in front of him, their penalty kill should rebound just fine. But the power play? It’s looking eerily similar to the passive man-advantage attack they had last year. 

Part of that, of course, has to do with the Jets’ top unit being short both Ehlers and Vilardi. Vilardi is set to return for Game 5, which could be a game-changer. 

“He just becomes another threat, right?” Arniel said after Tuesday’s practice. “(Connor’s) shot is a threat. (Morrissey’s) shot is a threat. (Scheifele’s) playmaking ability, (Cole Perfetti) in the (bumper) is a threat. Now there’s a fifth one there.” 

Generate more secondary scoring

Without Ehlers and Vilardi, the Jets have largely been a one-line team. 

Five of Winnipeg’s 10 goals in these playoffs have come from Scheifele and Connor.

While Ehlers — who remains “week-to-week” with a lower-body injury and skated on his own on Tuesday — is a massive loss in the Jets’ top-six, the return of Vilardi for Game 5 could provide a positive trickle-down effect.

“It pushes people back down to where they usually play,” Arniel said. “And it just helps us balance out some of our lines.”

Kyle Connor – Mark Scheifele – Gabriel Vilardi
Alex Iafallo – Vladislav Namestnikov – Cole Perfetti
Nino Niederreiter – Adam Lowry – Mason Appleton
Brandon Tanev – Morgan Barron – Jaret Anderson-Dolan

Josh Morrissey – Dylan DeMelo 
Dylan Samberg – Neal Pionk
Logan Stanley – Luke Schenn

Connor Hellebuyck 
Eric Comrie