As airlines warn about travel demand, Royal Caribbean surprises investors with upbeat outlook


While much of corporate America has pulled or cut guidance this earnings season, Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) surprised investors by raising its profit forecast.

The cruise operator lifted its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year to a range of $14.55 to $15.55, beating analysts’ estimates of $14.78 per share.

The company said better-than-expected revenue performance in the first quarter, currency exchange rates, and lower fuel costs drove the hike in earnings expectations for the remainder of the year.

Royal Caribbean stock initially jumped 3% following the results but then pared gains to trade roughly flat. Cruise line peers Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), which reports earnings tomorrow, and Carnival (CCL) also traded lower on Tuesday.

Read more about the latest stock moves and market action.

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RCL CCL NCLH

Travel stocks have had a rough year, but cruise lines might be a bright spot for investors.

The “WAVE season was the best in our company’s history, putting us in a strong book position for the remainder of the year and for 2026,” Royal Caribbean CEO Jason Liberty told investors and analysts on their earnings call this morning. (Wave season refers to when cruise lines offer the best deals for upcoming cruises.)

The upbeat outlook comes after air carriers like JetBlue (JBLU), American Airlines (AAL), and Delta (DAL) told investors they’re bracing for a year of macroeconomic uncertainty. JetBlue was the latest airline to yank its full-year guidance amid softness in demand and consumer confidence.

Credit and debit card data from Bank of America showed monthly cruise spending in March increased 6.4% year over year compared to a 4.5% annual gain in February. Cruise spending grew 15.6% from February, slightly below the 2015-2019 average increase of 20%, while overall travel spending fell 3.5% year over year, with airline spending down 6.6% and hotel spending down 2.6%.

LISBON, PORTUGAL - AUGUST 31: Celebrity Equinox, a 121,878 GT Solstice-class cruise ship owned by Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. and operated by Celebrity Cruises, sails the Tagus River after leaving Lisbon cruise terminal on August 31, 2024, in Lisbon, Portugal. The Port of Lisbon reached a new record in July 2024, with the highest number of cruise passengers ever for this month. A total of 58,141 passengers, meant a 6% increase on the previous record of 2023, with 54,992 passengers, mainly due to the 35% growth in transit cruise passengers, equivalent to a rise from 39,245 to 52,797 tourists in this category between 2023 and 2024. According to an economic impact study promoted by the Port of Lisbon Administration, cruise activity had a direct economic impact on the city of more than 83 million euros, considering the 102,680 passengers who embarked and the 554,324 who were in transit, for an embarked passenger spends an average of 367 euros and a passenger in transit 82 euros. Tourism generated 25 billion euros in Portugal during 2023, the best year ever for the country. (Photo by Horacio Villalobos#Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images)
Royal Caribbean lifted its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year to a range of $14.55 to $15.55, beating analysts’ estimates of $14.78. (Horacio Villalobos#Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images) · Horacio Villalobos via Getty Images

The resilience in cruise spending may stem from travelers trading up in value, as a cruise is “inherently less expensive than an equivalent land-based vacation,” Jefferies managing director David Katz told Yahoo Finance. “Our estimate is that ~1/3 of RCL’s bookings are new to cruise,” Katz added.

The cruise industry held its pricing trends. According to data from Jefferies, pricing trends were slightly favorable: Royal Caribbean’s prices rose 0.7%, Carnival’s increased 0.2%, while Norwegian Cruise Lines’ fell 0.2% compared to the previous month.

However, there is a growing fear that the travel slowdown that has already hit the airlines could soon affect cruises too.



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