When the North Queensland team takes the field, the footy gods flip a coin.

Cowboys fan EvolutionUber summarised the situation on the NRL subreddit on Saturday night: “We could win the next game by 50 or lose by 50 … win the grand final or not make the 8 … this team is ADHD, it’s an enigma.”

After 11 rounds, they are poised on a knife edge. They have had four wins, five losses, one bye and a nail-biting draw with the Panthers.

The results reflect a team whose form has been so fickle. There’s not even a home game advantage; they’ve won as many at home as they have on the road.

The Cowboys play as if they are coached on alternating weeks by Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde. Some of their performances are so horrific they should be rated MA15+ to keep children from seeing.

The team resemble 13 random young men pulled from Flinders Street the night before and pushed onto the park to play together. No cohesion, no cooperation, and no hope of stopping or scoring a try.

On other days, they play like men possessed. Every pass hits the mark, every kick is inch-perfect and their defence turns southern attackers away like a reverse Hadrian’s Wall.

This unpredictable streak is present on a micro and macro level. Since coach Todd Payten’s tenure began in 2021, they’ve finished 15th, then third, 11th and then 5th in 2024. There’s been more swings and roundabouts than a trapeze show in Lismore.

Sometimes they can even switch gears mid-game. In Round 8 against the Titans, they’d made eight errors in the first 40 minutes and were behind by six points at the break, only to turn around and score seven unanswered tries in the second half.

It’s lucky Payten doesn’t have any more hair to lose at this point. How the stress has not driven him to puff on one of Kevin Proctor’s leftover strawberry vapes in the coaches box is beyond me.

The Cowboys had 66 put on them by the Tigers in 2023, before thrashing them 74-0 five weeks later. At times it feels like totally different teams run out week to week, or even half to half.

Tom Dearden (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

Their fullback exemplifies the issue. The expression “Rocks and Diamonds” doesn’t do justice to the sheer range of Scott Drinkwater’s output. He can produce the jewels in St Edward’s Crown one minute, week-old crusted cowpatty the next.

Last week, Drinkwater kicked a curving sideline conversion to tie up the scores and send the game to extra time. Not even 10 minutes later, he fired off a field goal attempt worse than Brock Lamb’s shank against the Bulldogs in 2017. The club is sponsored by the famously reliable Toyota, but Drinkwater played more like a Jaguar against the Panthers.

He has been a major factor driving the Cowboys’ rebuild after their doldrum seasons between 2018-2020. He provides spark, speed and danger, a gap-seeking missile that can break through defence with ease.

Take another golden point match against Penrith from 2023, where he scored the winning try after an 88-minute arm wrestle. When it comes to the clutch, he can pull victory from the jaws of defeat.

The man himself reflected on his penchant for Hail Mary plays in an interview with Fox League in 2024, and while he has some spectacular highlights as a result, the low-percentage plays don’t always come up trumps.

On the other hand, one player to which you can set your watch is the flame-headed and fire-blooded Tom Dearden. He hits holes harder than an Indy Jones boulder and isn’t afraid to cop a whack for digging into the line. His defence is sharp and he axes even the biggest ball-runners in half like he’s chopping wood at your local showday.

Dearden is the bedrock of the team, a cornerstone on which the structure rests. Digging into their big brother’s bin and dusting him off back in 2021 has paid massive dividends.

He has grown into a commanding presence as halfback and co-captain of the squad. He was the best in a beaten Queensland team in the Origin III loss last year, and you could bet your family home he will be in the mix on May 28 as a bench utility.

Dearden has had a revolving door of halves partners this year. Tom Duffy lasted two rounds, followed by the club’s prodigal son, Jake Clifford, for seven games upon return from surgery.

Round 4 against the Raiders showcased Clifford’s ability to crack open a game. His solo dance and jive to score himself, followed by chasing and catching a Dearden bomb to claim two tries on the stroke of half-time, sent the team into the sheds ahead.

Later, his half-break and pass to John Bateman set them up for a raid on the Raiders. His quick hands to catch a Kaeo Weekes rebound kick and pass for Robert Derby to score gave them enough breathing room to hold off the Green Machine until Dearden barrelled over five minutes from the end.

Payten dropped his own Clifford-style torpedo bomb last week. Despite the team winning four in a row before a close loss in Magic Round, Clifford was sensationally told to sit on the pine to make room for gun centre Jaxon Purdue. Dearden himself moved to the No.7 jersey.

Payten sees Purdue as the future of the club but has had very little to say about Clifford. It remains to be seen who will be pairing Dearden in the halves long term. The decision to drop Clifford is another unexpected twist in the Cowboys’ 2025 tale.

The next few weeks will test the team’s depth and resilience, with both co-captains called up for representative duties. However, in the last three years they have come away with more wins than losses over the Origin period, so don’t write them off just yet.

They have a club legend ready to step up and lead the team in the last 2015 title winner on the roster, Jason Taumalolo, is having something of a renaissance in 2025. If he stays fit, Cowboys fans will be hoping for a season on par with his barnstorming 2017 finals campaign, when the Tongan Tank practically carried the team on his back to the big dance.

The Cowboys need to win the battle through the middle to remain a threat, and their superpowered front row will have to aim up. Thor look-a-like Sam McIntyre brings the thunder from lock and Bateman has somehow played better after being hospitalised with a spider bite (perhaps it was radioactive). Anyone who remembers Coen Hess’ 2017 golden age knows he can wreak more havoc than the Incredible Hulk.

Jake Clifford celebrates after scoring a try against Penrith at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

When put together, the Cowboys have the cattle to be competition heavyweights, but sometimes the whole is less than the sum of its parts.

When they’re singing from the same sheet, the points flow like water. When they get rattled, they deflate and the scoreline blows out.

There’s a place in the NRL Hall of Fame for the person who devises a fool-proof method of guaranteeing good performances, rain hail or shine. Until then, it remains a key role of coaches to bring all the ingredients together and keep the pot boiling.

The 2022 Coach of the Year Payten was feeling the heat earlier this year, with short odds he would be the first coach to get the Ned Stark treatment in 2025. The fact he is in the penultimate season of his contract is another reason for him to sleep with one eye open, gripping his pillow tight.

A few wins have relieved the pressure for now, but if the Cowboys hit another rough patch the seas could turn stormy for Payten very quickly.

This team could become Bali-bound at finals time for an early end-of-season trip or the competition’s Conquerors. It all depends on how the coin falls.

Anything could happen when it comes to the Cowboys.