Despite a downward revision for the global growth forecast and an uptick in geopolitical risk, the Indian economy has stayed “largely resilient”, stated SBI in its latest report. It said the sharp global downward revision on account of trade upheavals and policy uncertainties seem to have little weathering effects on the domestic growth. The report pointed out that India seems to have embraced the volatility at the drop of a hat despite geopolitical risks driven by trade tariffs and other barriers.
“Assuming there are no major revisions in Q1 to Q3 estimates in the upcoming data release by NSO, we expect FY25 GDP to stand at 6.3%,” the SBI report said. The report forecast GDP growth for Q4 FY25 at 6.4-6.5 per cent.
The FY25 GDP is slightly lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s estimates in the April Monetary Policy Committee meeting announcements. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that the apex bank expected growth to be 6.5 per cent for FY25. Before that the second advance estimates of national income also expected the economy to grow by 6.5% in FY25.
The SBI report stated that rural agriculture wage growth has shown signs of moderation. It said India Meteorological Department’s first stage long-range forecast of pre-arrival of the Southwest monsoon and above average rainfall predictions during monsoon season could boost a bumper crop prospects for the Kharif season. India is targeting 354.64 million tonnes of food grain production in the 2025-26 crop year starting July on the forecast of better monsoon rains, it said.
The SBI report added that around 1,200 listed companies reported revenue growth of 6 per cent while EBITDA and profit after tax (PAT) grew by around 10 per cent and 14 per cent respectively in Q4FY25 as compared to Q4FY24.
