Despite the ongoing uncertainty with regards to global trade and the tariff war by the US, India’s growth story is likely to remain intact. Government sources on Friday underlined that the Indian economy continues to be on a robust footing and the predicted slightly above monsoon will help further boost domestic consumption.

“The monthly economic reports, global rating agencies and the IMF are all on the same page on the Indian economy. They are only speculating on the growth in terms of whether it will be 6.3%, 6.5% or 6.7%,” noted an official source.

All economic metrics continue to do well, barring a few particular sectors that may have indicated a marginal drop in sales due to various reasons, they pointed out. The monsoons are also predicted to be slightly above normal, which will be good for crops and will help in a further pick up in rural demand and consumption, they noted. Further, stocks of companies in the consumption sector are also on a high, indicative of the robust state of the economy, they said.

Sources also indicated that for now further consumption boosts to the economy will not be necessary and ruled out any further giveaways in terms of fiscal sops. The Union Budget 2025-26 had already announced income tax benefits worth over Rs 1 lakh crore and this is expected to give a significant push to consumption, especially by the middle class and individual taxpayers.

The RBI has pegged GDP growth for FY26 at 6.5% while the IMF has projected India to be the fastest growing economy in the next two years and expects GDP to grow by 6.2% in 2025 and by 6.3% in 2026.  Official estimates of GDP growth for FY25 will be released on May 30. As per the NSO’s second estimates, the Indian economy is seen to have grown by 6.5%.

A significant concern has been the tariff policies of the US that has cast a shadow on prospects of global trade this year as well as worries of a US recession that could impact global growth prospects as well.