India often sets its sights on economic giants like Japan and the U.S. But one financial analyst is urging a more grounded comparison — with Brazil and Argentina.

In a recent LinkedIn post, analyst Hardik Joshi pointed out a stark reality: while India talks bullet trains and R&D like Japan, its GDP per capita still trails far behind that of even Latin American nations.

“Before comparing with Japan, India should first catch up with Brazil and Argentina,” Joshi wrote, backing the claim with data. India’s estimated GDP per capita for 2025 stands at about $2,880. Brazil’s is projected at $9,462, Argentina’s between $9,000 and $10,000, and Chile’s at $14,540.

“Potential ≠ parity,” he added. “We’re still far from the global middle class. Before we run the Japan/USA race, we need to win the Brazil/Argentina round first.”

While India boasts a massive economy by total size and is one of the world’s fastest-growing markets, the average Indian’s income remains significantly lower than that of peers in Latin America. GDP per capita — a standard measure of economic well-being — suggests that an average Brazilian or Argentine earns three to four times more than an average Indian.

Still, the comparison isn’t all one-sided. India’s scale gives it global economic weight. Its total GDP ranks fifth worldwide, and its projected growth rate of 6.2% to 6.5% for 2025 far outpaces Brazil and Argentina, whose economies have stagnated or contracted. India’s vast population also means a growing consumer base and expanding middle class, despite persistent inequality and poverty.

But Joshi’s point remains: ambition should be tempered with awareness. Aspiring to match Japan is valid — but first, he suggests, India may need to match Brazil.