With one week to go in Super Rugby Pacific’s regular season, five teams are locked in to play finals, three are out of contention, and three are battling to claim the last spot in the finals series for 2025.

Before we look at what every team’s scenario is on the final day, a bit of housekeeping.

How the finals match ups are decided – and what happens next

In the event of two or more teams being equal on competition points for any position on either the Competition table, either during or at the end of the season, such position will be decided upon using the following steps until the tie is broken:

a) Most wins from all matches;
b) Highest aggregate points difference from all matches;
c) Most tries from all matches;
d) Highest aggregate difference of total tries for versus tries scored against from all matches;
e) Coin toss

After Round 16 – A three-week Finals series: playoff format involving the top six teams on the overall competition table with qualifying finals, semis and final as follows:
Qualifying finals – 1 v 6, 2 v 5, 3 v 4 with the top-ranked team hosting
Semi-Finals – three qualifying winners plus highest ranked loser: Teams re-ranked with 1 v 4 and 2 v 3
Final – top-ranked semi-final winner hosts the other semi-final winner.

For an explanation on how seedings are impacted by first stage losses, check out the short video in the player below.

Final week fixtures

Friday: Highlanders vs Chiefs, 5.05pm; Brumbies vs Crusaders, 7.35pm.

Saturday: Blues vs Waratahs, 2.35pm; Hurricanes vs Moana Pasifika, 5.05pm; Reds vs Fijian Drua 7.35pm.

Current standings

Every team’s finals scenario from last to first as it stands

Highlanders, Fijian Drua and Western Force can’t make the top six and are in contention for the wooden spoon. The Force have the final week bye and both the Drua and Highlanders will go above them with wins.

Waratahs, Blues and Moana Pasifika are in a three-way battle for the final place in the finals with the top five all set to play an extra week.

The big clash is in Auckland where the Tahs (26 points) face the Blues (28 points) in the opening game on Saturday, just before Moana Pasifika (28 points) play the Hurricanes. That result will give Moana Pasifika – who are the front runners based on an extra win compared to Blues this season – a guide on what they must achieve against the Canes.

The Waratahs kept their season alive by beating the Force on Saturday. (Photo by Travis Hayto/Getty Images)

Moana would just need to match the Blues win to progress, or win in any fashion should the Tahs claim victory in Auckland. A Moana loss would put the winner of the Tahs vs Blues clash into the last spot in the final six.

While the top five is set, the order is still fluid, with a top-three place securing a home quarterfinal, and also added security in case of a first match defeat.

The Reds are in fifth but could finish as high as fourth with a win over Drua matched with a Hurricanes loss to Moana Pasifika. In the event of an MP win the Reds could mathematically end sixth with a loss to the Drua but such is the gulf in points difference that won’t happen. If the Reds get a bonus point win, and the Hurricanes win without the bonus, both will finish on 38 points – but with the same number of wins the tiebreak will be points difference – that currently favours the Kiwi team by a 45-point margin.

The Hurricanes will stay in fourth with a win over Moana Pasifika. A loss or draw means they would slip to fifth if the Reds win.

The third-placed Brumbies (43 points) can’t finisher any lower than their current standing, but could go as high as first with a win over the Crusaders (45 points) along with an unlikely loss by the Chiefs (46 points) to the bottom-placed Highlanders. A win over the Crusaders, and a Chiefs win would put the Brumbies in second.

A win by the Chiefs will seal the top spot. A win by the Crusaders will ensure they finish second.

Predicted quarter-finals

Chiefs vs Blues; Crusaders vs Reds; Brumbies vs Hurricanes.