As the AFL approaches the midway point of the season before five rounds of byes, it’s the perfect time for footy fans to sit back and wonder, “Is my team going to be playing footy this September?”

I’m an Eagles supporter, so I don’t have to worry about asking myself that.

At first glance, the AFL ladder seems to make sense. Collingwood sit on top, Brisbane and Gold Coast are flying, and teams like St Kilda and Port Adelaide are scratching their heads, wondering how it’s all slipping away. But when we overlay the fixture difficulty rankings, a different picture emerges. One that reveals who’s been tested and who’s simply coasting.

I’ve risen above gut feelings and angry fan tweets. I’ve done the maths. This is the official, scientific, 100% stats-backed investigation into which AFL team has had the easiest run to the halfway mark of the 2025 season. We can now separate the genuine contenders from the ladder illusions.

So how do we measure “easiest”?, not with vibes. We dig into:
– Opponent Wins – Total number of games your opponents have won.
– Opponent Wins Adjusted – We subtract the wins they got against you. Why? Because otherwise you look tough just for losing.
– Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) – This is the golden stat. It’s the adjusted wins divided by opponent games minus your own game(s) against them. The lower this number, the easier your season has been.

The results are… (in order of hardest fixture to easiest)
1. Geelong (FDR: 5.7)
2. Western Bulldogs (5.5)
3. Sydney (5.5)
4. Collingwood (5.4)
5. North Melbourne (5.2)
6. West Coast (5.0)
7. Port Adelaide (5.0)
8. GWS Giants (5.0)
9. Adelaide (5.0)
10. Brisbane (5.0)
11. St Kilda (4.9)
12. Melbourne (4.9)
13. Hawthorn (4.9)
14. Essendon (4.8)
15. Gold Coast (4.7)
16. Fremantle (4.6)
17. Richmond (4.5)
18. Carlton (4.5)
*NOTE: Order is determined by FDR, followed by opponent wins

THE TOP 5 TOUGHEST FIXTURES SO FAR
1. Geelong (FDR: 5.7, Ladder Position: 5th)
The Cats have done well to sit in the top five, considering they’ve faced the toughest draw of any team. Their fixture has included clashes with six of a possible seven top-eight teams, including Brisbane, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Collingwood, GWS, and the Western Bulldogs. Geelong have a relatively easy remaining draw, and look like an outfit that can do damage come finals.

2. Western Bulldogs (FDR: 5.5, Ladder Position: 7th)
Sitting just inside the eight, the Bulldogs’ form has been patchy, but have shown they can be a real threat come September as they find an easier run home.

3. Sydney (FDR: 5.5, Ladder Position: 13th)
This is a key insight. The Swans have been underperforming this season, failing to respond after their 60 point Grand Final loss last year, but they have faced one of the toughest schedules so far. If their draw softens — and they can find form — a second-half resurgence is very possible. Do not rule out the Swans yet.

Dean Cox. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

4. Collingwood (FDR: 5.4, Ladder Position: 1st)
The Pies sit atop the ladder despite a high difficulty rating. That’s ominous for the rest of the league. They’ve been tested — and have passed with flying colours. They have a well balanced fixture remaining, with many winnable games as well as some tough challenges.

5. North Melbourne (FDR: 5.2, Ladder Position: 17th)
With only two wins and a draw at their halfway point, the fixture hasn’t done the Kanga’s any favours. While North Melbourne have issues, their tough opponent set suggests some of the losses are more understandable. In recent weeks t hey have provided much more of a fight to good quality sides, including a draw to Brisbane in Round 9. A win in Round 10 was much deserved for a football club which have had their fair share of struggles over the last seven years.

SOFTEST FIXTURES SO FAR (LOWEST FDRs)
18. Carlton (FDR: 4.5, Ladder Position: 12th)
Carlton shares the lowest FDR in the league, meaning they’ve had the easiest fixture to date — and yet they sit outside the top 8. The Blues’ 7–4 record flatters them slightly when viewed in light of their draw. They’ve played five of the bottom six sides (West Coast, North Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda, and Sydney), while they’ve avoided five of the top-eight teams. Carlton’s underlying performance has been another year of disappointment for Blue’s fans. Their FDR suggests they’ve had a chance to build a strong win-loss buffer — but haven’t fully capitalised. That makes their second half of the season critical, with their fixture toughing up from here.

17. Richmond (FDR: 4.5, Ladder Position: 16th)
Richmond entered 2025 with modest expectations. Many tipped them for the wooden spoon, and some pundits didn’t expect them to win a game. So with three wins from their first 11 and a batch of competitive performances, they’re arguably ahead of expectations. But context matters — they’ve had the equal-easiest fixture in the league so far. Of all bottom-four sides, none has had a softer draw than Richmond. In contrast, West Coast (FDR: 5.0) and North Melbourne (5.2) have faced significantly stronger oppositions. Richmond isn’t failing — they’re rebuilding. And while their FDR suggests they’ve had chances to notch wins, their priority clearly remains development over results. As the fixture gets tougher from here, don’t be surprised if wins dry up further. But for Tigers fans, it’s less about the ladder and more about seeing growth from their youngsters.

16. Fremantle (FDR: 4.6, Ladder Position: 9th)
The Dockers have quietly built a finals push but on a relatively gentle schedule. They’ve benefited from games against weaker opponents, but have struggled playing in Victoria where they have suffered losses to Geelong, Melbourne, and St Kilda. Still, they’ve done what they needed to do — bank wins. They find themselves just 4% outside the eight.

15. Gold Coast Suns (FDR: 4.7, Ladder Position: 3rd)
While beginning the season with quite possibly the easiest fixture on record, the last few weeks the Suns have been put to the test… and have delivered. With solid victories against the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn in Darwin, the Suns backed themselves up with a victory against St Kilda at Marvel Stadium on Sunday. They should make finals, even a top four spot, if they can continue to win home games and win games on the road.

It’s no surprise to see Geelong, the Western Bulldogs, and Collingwood holding strong given the level of opposition they’ve faced — they’ve done it the hard way. The Fixture Difficulty Ratings show that wins haven’t come cheaply for some clubs — and in a few cases, the ladder doesn’t reflect the effort. As the fixture starts to flip, those who’ve survived the storm might just surge when it matters most. September is still months away, but the foundations are being laid now — and some teams are better built for it than others.