The Indian economy has likely put up a resilient front amid the ongoing geopolitical crises and is expected to grow in the range of 6.2-6.4 per cent in the 2024-25 (April-March) year. While the predictions vary, it is almost unanimous that the GDP growth for FY25 would fall a little short of the earlier estimates. 

The Ministry of Statistics will release the GDP growth estimates for 2024-25 and the March-quarter GDP on Friday. The second official estimate by the National Statistical Office had pegged FY25 to grow at 6.5 per cent with an implicit forecast of 7.6 per cent for the fourth quarter of the fiscal. The Reserve Bank of India, in the April Monetary Policy Committee meeting had expected FY25 GDP growth rate to be 6.5 per cent.

According to a SBI report, FY25 GDP growth is likely to be 6.3 per cent, while Q4 is expected to grow at 6.4-6.5 per cent. The report stated that the Indian economy stayed “largely resilient” in the face of a downward global growth forecast and uptick in geopolitical risk. It added that India seems to have embraced the volatility at the drop of a hat. 

ICRA expects Q4 to grow at 6.9 per cent, while CareEdge predicts a growth of 6.8 per cent. ICICI Bank and Union Bank of India have pegged the March 2025 quarter growth at 7 per cent.

Meanwhile, a Reuters report that also carried its poll stated that India’s economic growth had likely accelerated in the January–March quarter, supported by stronger rural demand and increased government spending. However, private firms delayed investments due to global uncertainties. GDP is expected to have grown 6.7 per cent year-on-year in the March quarter, up from 6.2 per cent in the previous quarter, it stated after polling economists.

The GDP growth rate announcement comes at a time when India surpassed Japan to become the fourth largest economy in the world. Citing IMF data, Subrahmanyam confirmed the milestone during a press briefing following the 10th Governing Council meeting of the policy think tank. “We are the fourth largest economy as I speak. We are a $4 trillion economy,” he stated, highlighting India’s upward momentum in the global economic order. Only the United States, China, and Germany now rank ahead. Subrahmanyam attributed India’s rise to favourable geopolitical and economic conditions, and projected that India could climb to the third spot within the next three years. “If we stick to what is being planned and what is being thought through, in 2.5 to 3 years, we will be the third largest economy,” he said.