By early Friday morning, when Saudi Arabia play Bahrain at the Bahrain National Stadium, they will know the precise mathematics required to qualify briskly for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

North America 2026 looms ever closer, and as the Third Round of Asian qualification reaches a climactic point, Saudi Arabia has its eyes on second spot in the group that the Socceroos currently hold. The Aussies are three points clear with two matches to play, the last of those against Saudi Arabia next Wednesday morning.

What happens this Thursday evening in Perth, when the Socceroos face old foe Japan, will instruct the Saudis as to how to approach both the Bahrain clash, as well as the potential blockbuster deciding fixture they will host against the Aussies next week.

A Japanese win will make things mighty difficult for the Australians should Bahrain not be able to hold Saudi to a point or less. That would send the teams level into the final match, with the Socceroos still holding a comfortable goal difference advantage as long as something bizarre does not occur in the penultimate matches.

Even a single point for Saudi gives them a strong position heading into the home fixture against Australia, with a win getting them through should the teams enter it level on points.

Unless of course, the Socceroos can pull off an unlikely win against the Japanese, which could make their final game a dead rubber depending on the result in Bahrain.

I know, I know, there are a lot of if’s and but’s in there, yet with six points still on the table and multiple possibilities, the question of how to approach the contests becomes key.

Playing a few hours later, Saudi have the advantage in the fifth of the six Third Round matches. Should Australia slip badly against Japan, an opportunity will present itself.

Should it be pounced upon and with home field advantage calling for the final game, the Socceroos will look like shot ducks and headed for what is effectively an Asian Confederation repechage.

Nishan Velupillay has been key for the Socceroos in qualifying but is absent for the final two matches of Round 3. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

How the Aussies approach the match with Japan is crucial. In front of a healthy home crowd, to attack or not to attack is the question.

A point could be incredibly handy for the Socceroos and potentially sends them to the World Cup. Yet an overly attacking mindset that exposes the team at the back would be what Japan relishes.

More likely is a stodgy approach from Australian coach Tony Popovic, who does have a strong history of pragmatism. This moment calls for more of the same and there is simply no need for the Socceroos to do anything more than hold firm, establish a block and soak up the expected waves of Japanese attack.

Negative, I hear you say, and not what we want our national team to think heading into matches against strong opponents that we need to beat consistently to remain a powerhouse in Asia.

Poppycock, I say, playing the situation in football is always more important than being pretty or playing in an aesthetically attractive manner to please the less versed.

Tony Popovic has made a solid start to his time at the helm of the Socceroos. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Australia’s approach should be clear. Get in the grind early, foray forward when opportunities arise, yet remain defensively minded as a default position. In turn, hope the moment presents itself to take a lead and then rely on communication at the back to prevent what will be a second half blitzkrieg from the visitors.

Sound familiar? It should and all bar the final task of the five above was completed well by Popovic’s team in Saitama back in October. Whilst there was plenty to like about the Socceroo performance on that night, the absence of shots on target and Japan’s dominance in possession is a reminder of just how difficult this edition of the rivalry will be.

With Saudi lurking in the background, a multiple goal loss for the Aussies gives them a sniff of blood in the water and the welcome mat will not be laid out for the trip there next week.

It is squeaky bum time for the Socceroos and also for Saudi Arabia, with more twists in tale certain in the Third Round of qualifying.

Join Stuart for a live blog of all the action on Thursday night at 9.10pm (AEST)