Melbourne almost had them.
When Kysaiah Pickett brilliantly roved a Bayley Fritsch handball inside 50 and snapped truly with deadly precision, the Demons led Collingwood by a straight kick, and while nearly 13 minutes of game time remained, had all the momentum by virtue of overturning a 20-point Magpie lead midway through the third quarter.
They’d done it despite yet more inefficiency when going inside 50 to spurn multiple chances – and the Pies’ deadly accuracy in front of goal regardless of the slippery conditions at the MCG – and despite clearly coming out on the wrong side of the umpiring throughout the afternoon, with line-ball key decisions repeatedly going against them.
They’d done it via a brilliant Ed Langdon tagging job on Nick Daicos, which reduced the Brownlow Medal favourite to just seven disposals in the first half and forced the Pies to take drastic, team-wide action to try and free him up; via a clearance domination led by Clayton Oliver winding back the clock at the coalface and Max Gawn comprehensively dominating Darcy Cameron for nearly every ruck contest.
They’d done it with Pickett, well held by the Pies for much of the afternoon, still managing to influence the contest with moments no other player on the ground, and perhaps no one in the AFL, would be capable of.
But to do all that means the umpires can be safely removed as a factor in the Dees’ heartbreaking one-point loss – or at least, make them far from the principal contributor.
The only controversial call in those thrilling final stages was a push in the back on Nick Daicos against Langdon – an obvious free kick to anyone with even a limited understanding of the rules, and which is only contentious because of the neverending debate around the quality of the Pies superstar.
No, Melbourne were their own worst enemies in a final ten minutes in which they once again fell victim to Collingwood’s close-game supremacy – not for the first time, a supremacy caused by their opposition’s disposition to spurn golden opportunities, make key mistakes, and drop a match that should have been in their keeping.
It’s nowhere near to the level of Brisbane’s spectacular butcher job against Adelaide on Friday night; but Dees players will be having sleepless nights for weeks contemplating the crucial moments they squandered at the death.
The first missteps have already come: after trying and failing to break away from a Nick Daicos tackle in the centre, Pickett compounds the holding the ball call by letting the footy fall to the turf, giving away a 50m penalty to bring the Magpies star well within scoring range.
It’s a vital six points even then, early in the last quarter, never mind in the context of how the rest of the game unfolded. It’s a major coach-killer in anyone’s book, and though Pickett made amends with his spectacular finish a few minutes later to give the Dees the lead, gifts like this are blunders the Pies make a business of avoiding in tight finishes.
Even worse is Bayley Fritsch, who, freely marking inside 50 with a golden chance to extend the Demons’ lead, fails to notice two things: a fast-approaching Isaac Quaynor, and a free teammate over the top to pass to with an open goal in front of him.
The result? Fritsch, no stranger to being burned in his desire to be the hero, plays on, sensing the open goal in front of him, realises at the last second that Quaynor is bearing down, and hastily scrubs a kick towards goal that dribbles through for a behind.
Disaster.
The next error belongs to Blake Howes; as the Pies steadily attack down the wing with some 11 minutes to go, Tim Membrey’s pass finds a leading Ned Long, with Howes’ desperation to spoil carrying him past the Magpie and failing to even impact his body.
It’s crucial millimetres in a game as tight as this: now unimpeded by a man on the mark, Long turns quickly, gains ten invaluable metres, and is free to blast the footy long inside 50, over three Dees, one of them Steven May, set up for a much shallower entry.
It gives Dan McStay all the opportunity he needs to drag down a vital mark, outreaching Daniel Turner, thus far briliant in defence.
McStay’s goal gives the Magpies a one-point lead. They’d never trail again.
The next error comes from Gawn – no, it’s not THAT final-minute wayward kick, by which point the match had already slipped from Melbourne’s grasp and desperate measures were needed.
That’s very much not the case when Gawn marks a Will Hoskin-Elliott shot in the Magpies’ goalsquare with six and a half minutes left.
With that much time still on the clock, there’s no need for anything rash, especially given three things: one, the Demons have dominated stoppages all day and should back themselves to win a contest if required; two, the Magpies have ruled the skies behind the ball from start to finish, particularly Darcy Cameron zoning a kick ahead of the play; and three, there’s no Gawn to kick to up the line as a bailout.
But no sooner has Gawn marked than he hands the ball off to Turner, who, it must be said, stuff up the play even more severely.
With only one Magpie – Jamie Elliott – converging and three teammates over the top to handball to, one of them the team’s best kick in Christian Salem, the very worst thing Turner can do is bang the ball on his boot as quickly as possible, because not only does he have a plethora of other options, but a Demons outnumber at the footy means the Pies have their numbers elsewhere.
What could have been a chain running into open space down the wing, potentially drawing an overlap once the Pies’ numbers right on the 50 were hit, ends as so many Demons plays have done on the day: with a Cameron mark to steady the black and white ship.
It’s this kick that should be blamed for the Dees’ loss far more than the free against Langdon for pushing Daicos that results from the Pies’ subsequent re-entry.
The next mistake is a team one: for much of the ten-minute period following his go-ahead goal, Pickett has been stuck on the interchange bench, denying the Dees the use of their most dangerous player inside 50 just when they need a goal most.
It comes back to bite them when Koltyn Tholstrup, dreams of glory in his head, kicks from 50 right to the goal line, where Darcys Cameron and Moore combined to get fingers to the ball, but are unable to force it over.
For a crucial split-second, the ball is loose at their feet – but the most likely Demon to make something of the opportunity is stuck on the bench. As a result, there’s no one at ground level wearing red and blue, with Quaynor able to safely concede the behind.
Without the ball, the Demons are still doing everything right: with the Pies trying to maintain possession and wind down the clock, they guard space effectively enough, and deny easy unconsted marks well enough, that eventually, Billy Frampton bites off more than he can chew with a short pass to Moore and forces a boundary throw-in.
Two minutes remain on the clock, and the Demons have their chance.
It’s here where two of their all-time greats each have a moment they’d love back.
From the stoppage, Jake Bowey gathers, spins his way out of a Bobby Hill tackle, and handballs superbly to a running Christian Petracca, who doesn’t need to break stride.
Ahead of him, he has Jacob van Rooyen free for an over-the-top handball of an onrushing Darcy Moore, while if he’s feeling particularly ambitious, there’s a pocket of space in which to pass to Pickett dashing back towards goal with Quaynor hot on his heels.
Instead, he does what nobody, certainly not his teammates, expect: he handballs long and to nobody.
The only thing more shocking than the decision is that it doesn’t immediately defuse the Demons’ attack: Frampton, who has looked jittery in these final minutes, badly fumbles a ball at his feet, letting Jake Melksham slip through to gather the footy and dish to Clayton Oliver.
He, like Petracca, has options: none of them easy, all with risk, but options nonetheless. The most obvious is another handball, again to van Rooyen free over the top, or even to Pickett, who can do plenty in the telephone box of space he would have been afforded. He could even run further, take his steps, steady, and go for goals on the right side of 50 with time and space on his side.
Instead, Oliver makes a hash of it even worse than Petracca: without even stopping to think, he throws the ball on the boot and kicks it for his life. It sails out of bounds on the full.
The comparison of Melbourne’s panic to Collingwood’s calmness is then starkly exposed by how the Magpies defused the Dees’ last crack at it.
From 70 metres out, Harvey Langford gathers, looks for options, finds none, and then does what he must: kicks long, to the hot spot some 20 metres out from goal, and asks the question of the Pies. It’s the perfect kick in that situation.
There’s no one there to take a mark, though, and the Pies are the first to gather on the ground: it’s Moore with the first clean possession, a handball to Harry Perryman, who then dribbles a kick to the space in front of Beau McCreery.
The unsung hero is Steele Sidebottom: as McCreery sprints for the ball, Pickett in hot pursuit, the veteran sprints in to block the Demon’s path, forcing him to jink to avoid him and earning McCreery crucial metres.
It means McCreery can run his full 15 metres before kicking, rather than having to hack straight away: and when he does so, it’s not to an outnumber, or even a contest, but to a free Jamie Elliott on the wing.
He can’t mark, but his decision is even more brilliant: looking inboard, he chips a pass with magnificent poise and even better execution, hitting Scott Pendlebury at 50 without him even needing to break stride.
Pendlebury, too, holds his nerve: rather than quickly rushing on and going for a pass, or even playing on himself, he goes back behind his mark, slows everything down, and chips to Sidebottom sideways instead of driving it long.
It means, even though Gawn marks the kick, only 40 seconds remain, and he needs to do something radical – cue his horror kick inboard, and cue the match being over.
There was so much Melbourne did right on King’s Birthday.
That they fell only marginally short of upsetting the ladder-leaders should give everyone wearing red and blue hope that this season mightn’t be shot just yet – but they should all be ruing one that very much got away.