After that strange week of qualifying finals, where the Chiefs got rolled with almost no consequence, we’re back to the brutal reality of knockout footy in Super Rugby pacific.

The Roar’s rugby editor Christy Doran has a two-point lead atop our standings. Surely he can’t blow it from here?

SUPER RUGBY SEMI-FINAL TEAMS

Christy Doran

Crusaders, Chiefs

I’ve got to say, I’m being worn down at the top. My lead is being chipped away. Will there be an upset or two to allow my challengers an opening?

The Blues lived to fight another day last week. It was a heck of a performance built on staying in the fight and taking their chances. Can they do it again? I’m not sure. Their backline is potent and Beauden Barrett is brilliant. If there’s an opening, Barrett will take it. But on the back of the Crusaders’ tight five and back five backs, I’m tipping Rob Penney’s side to go 31-0 in finals and make the big dance. It’s a huge game for James O’Connor off the bench. The Wallabies hopeful needs a match-winning performance to remind Joe Schmidt of his ability.

James O’Connor of the Crusaders celebrates with his team after kicking the winning penalty during the round 10 Super Rugby Pacific match between Crusaders and Blues at Apollo Projects Stadium, on April 18, 2025, in Christchurch, New Zealand. (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

Although the Blues showed that the Chiefs are fallible, I don’t think their last-minute loss will help the Brumbies’ cause. If anything, the Chiefs have been delivered a timely wake-up call. Their set-piece fell apart last week, and Clayton McMillan will have been livid in his final year at the club before moving to Munster.

The Brumbies can win, but they’ll have to be perfect. They’ll have to be lethal and accurate at the breakdown and they’ll need to be as efficient in the attacking 22 as they were last week to win. But given the Chiefs will bring back Quinn Tupaea and Luke Jacobson, I’m thinking the Chiefs will win by a couple of tries. I hope I’m wrong. 

Nick Wasiliev

Blues, Brumbies

You know what? I’m not gonna win, so why not?

 Blues are playing really well right now – they’ve been back to their best ever since their loss to the Reds in Round 11 – bar the Moana Pasifika loss. Defeating the Chiefs in Hamilton is a big statement, and given it took a James O’Connor penalty to sink them in Christchurch I can see them springing a second upset. With Tamaiti Williams also out, that tips the scales as well in the forward pack.

Yep, on Saturday, I’m going pure heart. Yes, I know the Brumbies lost here earlier in the year, and the whole 20 losses on the bounce for Aussie sides – but like previous years, I genuinely believe the side is a shot here. A near full-strength squad for the men from Canberra, the Chiefs are getting Quinn Tupaea back but losing Simon Parker and Josh Lord from the pack. They only beat the Chiefs in Hamilton back in 2022. Let’s dream. They have the cattle to do it. This could mean a final in the Australian capital. Don’t say a word, Doran and Bidwell! Let me believe! 

Ben Pobjie

Blues, Chiefs

Crusaders v Blues: Why the hell not, let’s tip the more interesting result. The Blues don’t deserve to be there but now they are they have the whiff of destiny about them. An ineffable hunch says the Crusaders may be about to trip.

Chiefs v Brumbies: Chiefs, but let’s not go nuts. Well done, Brumbies, but their failure to secure the top two spot that was there for the taking, and a history that this year’s team doesn’t look like a shining exception to, tells me it’s the same old same old.

Hamish Bidwell

Blues, Chiefs
I remain to be convinced the Crusaders won’t fumble and bumble their way out of the competition. On that basis I have no option but to pick the Blues.

I don’t see the Chiefs being too anxious about the Brumbies match up. Could be a 20-pointer in their favour.