There are not many universally agreed upon pieces of analysis in any sport, but with the NHL, you’d be hard-pressed to find dissent on the ol’ catchphrase “it’s a copycat league.”
That’s because it is, which should be viewed at least partially as disparagement, given it means we’ve accepted that most teams just chase what’s worked in the recent past, rather than anticipating the changes to the game, and getting out ahead of them.
After all, a general manager won’t be harshly judged for acquiring the type of guys who most recently won, even if those guys aren’t what their particular team needs.
Whether the Florida Panthers win it all or not, they’ve now been to three straight Stanley Cup Finals, meaning: I hope you like watching the way they play (and for what it’s worth, I do). Because GMs are salivating watching this Panthers team, saying “that’s the way you have to play to win in today’s NHL.”
But what exactly defines “that” in “that’s the way?” I’m worried they’re going to extract the wrong lessons, and by “worried” I mean the bad GMs definitely will learn the wrong lessons. This is a near 100 per cent certainty.
The reason is, the Panthers are the world’s biggest provider of confirmation bias, in that whatever it is you like in a team and have been saying works, you can find it on the Cats. They’re simultaneously proving everyone right, which is going to lead to some weird doubling down.
You like toughness, well, they led the NHL in penalty minutes this year. You like offence, they’re first in the Stanley Cup Playoffs in goals for and they’ve scored five-plus in eight of their last 11 playoff games. If you like good defence, they lead the playoffs in goals-against per game. You like goaltending, they’re getting it, you like good special teams, they’re getting it, depth, size, leadership, coaching, you name it.
It’s all there. So GMs will see what they’ve always valued win, and they’re going to go hard in on that trait.
But that’s why we’re here talking about this. They’ve been so dominant in the post-season because they’re so solid all the way through, at everything. There’s not one obvious thing for a team to emulate, though that won’t stop some from convincing themselves there is.
The orginial idea for this article was if other teams would try to replicate Florida’s success, and so we’re going to see money thrown at heavy, bigger players, and we’re going to see teams dump and chase again.
That was gonna be the article – “here come the over-large contracts to grunts,” “here comes the rise of simple coaching.”
Upon hearing my pitch, my esteemed editor, Rory Boylen, challenged whether the premise was possible. And he’s 100 per cent right, the plan isn’t for sale on UFA day. Who would you go get, aside from wildly overpaying the Panthers’ own UFAs?
Unfortunately for shoppers, what you’re seeing from their roster is complete buy-in, grown men with experience who know they’ve got each other’s backs and that their plan works. They’re unflappable; the ingredients all just work together. Around the league, 30 other recipes are apparently missing a little something (I’ll exclude the Oilers here, who are not nearly yet beaten), but grabbing good things from other recipes doesn’t necessarily mean you’ve fixed your own dish.
The very idea I mentioned above – “heavy” players and a dump-and-chase style would be prioritized – that’s fine to keep the score close every night.
But it works not because they’ve asked David Kampf-types to play that way, but because it comes from elite skilled players. Pursuing those traits doesn’t take you the distance without the rest of the package.
Matthew Tkachuk has that element of fearlessness GMs will chase, but let’s not forget he has a 109-point season on his resume, just one year removed from his 104-point 2021-22 campaign.
Panthers Captain Aleksander Barkov has a 96-point season to his name and gets Hart Trophy votes every year. Brad Marchand has earned those too, in plenty of seasons, including for his 100-point year. Sam Reinhart got his Hart votes during his 57-goal, 94-point season last year.
I’ll also add that Carter Verhaeghe has 33 goals in 89 career playoff games to go with 74 points. He’s perhaps their most clutch big-game scorer. And finally, none of those guys are Sam Bennett, who’s the favourite to win this year’s Conn Smythe with 14 goals in 20 playoff games to go with lord knows how many injuries he’s doled out.
Remarkably, the only guy on the above list who’s turned 30 is Brad Marchand.
I mentioned buy-in because those are guys who prioritize the team game, not scoring numbers, which seem to come secondary. Four of the six names listed have also received Selke Trophy votes in past seasons, while Anton Lundell and Evan Rodrigues earned Selke votes of their own this season.
That’s half their forward group who can score and are deemed among the game’s best defensive forwards.
The point is, if you’re a GM watching them and thinking “OK, we gotta play more like that,” you have to understand that “that” isn’t neanderthal hockey, as much as they often rely on bully tactics.
“That” is not just offensive talents, it’s because their offensive talents play a 200-foot game.
“That” is not just goons and thuggery, as half the mouthing off and nastiness comes from the above list of players who get nominated for league awards while playing the most minutes for Florida.
Aaron Ekblad – also somehow not yet 30 – embodies this idea on the back end. A hard, nasty player who also has a nearly 60-point season on his resume. They have puck movers back there, but also guys who can throw a hit, and regularly in the same player.
What sounds cartoonish and obvious here is, they’ve got a whack of hockey players, guys who aren’t specialists who can play the game anyway you want and who are competitive to the core.
That’s not to say they can’t be beat, as the Oilers beat them in three straight in the Cup Final last year. But at this point, they’re something teams are about to try to emulate. There’s not just one trait to chase.
Free agency begins July 1st, and watching what lessons teams pull from the Panthers’ success is going to be fascinating. They just need to be careful not to convince themselves of X, or Y, or even Z, because at this point, they look like they’ve got the full alphabet.