The fed funds rate has been at 4.25%-4.50% since the central bank last eased in December, by a quarter percentage point.
“What the Fed is going to have to try to do next week is encourage the belief that they are able to act without actually promising anything,” said Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management. “If they move rates lower too early before there is evidence that there is weakening in the economy that they can then point to, they raise the risk of actually boosting inflation expectations further.” At its last meeting in May, the central bank said risks of both higher inflation and unemployment had risen. The Fed has a dual mandate to maintain full employment and price stability, and investors will be seeking any signs of whether officials are more concerned about one of those goals and what that means for the path of rates.
One area of focus on Wednesday will be an update to Fed officials’ projections about monetary policy and the economy, which were last published in March.
Larry Werther, chief U.S. economist of Daiwa Capital Markets America, will be watching estimates for unemployment. While the Fed officials’ last projection was for unemployment to end 2025 at 4.4%, Werther is projecting a year-end rate of 4.6%, saying recent data including jobless claims has indicated softening in the labor market.
“If the unemployment rate is expected to move higher, just aligning with what we’ve seen in the labor market, and inflation isn’t expected to move much beyond what the Fed is projecting, then it opens the door to further easing in support of the labor market later this year,” Werther said. Fed funds futures indicate markets expect two rate cuts by the end of this year, with the next one likely in September, according to LSEG data. Such bets were bolstered by benign inflation reports this week. Investors are also focused on Trump’s selection to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with the president regularly urging the central bank to lower rates. Trump earlier this month said a decision on the next chair would be coming soon, although he said on Thursday that he would not fire Powell, whose term ends in May 2026. The release of monthly retail sales on Tuesday will also be in focus. Investors want to see if tariffs are leading to higher prices that pressure consumer spending. Trade developments are likely to continue to keep markets on edge, with a 90-day pause on a wide array of Trump’s tariffs set to end on July 8. A trade truce this week between China and the United States offered hope that the two countries can reach a lasting resolution, but the absence of detailed terms left room for potential future conflict. The S&P 500 is up 1.6% so far this year. But the index has gained 20% since its low for the year on April 8, and is 2.7% off its record high set in February.
“The market has rallied so hard, so fast,” said Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at retirement and wealth services provider Empower. “There is vulnerability to anything that doesn’t support that kind of benign narrative that has been established.”
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