Another round is in the book for season 2025 – and are we starting to see a turn of the tide?
As recently as last week, it felt as if the eight was a race between nine teams – and one of those nine, GWS, was falling badly behind the pack.
Now, not only are the Giants back in business courtesy of an upset win over Brisbane, but Carlton and Port Adelaide find themselves nipping at the heels, courtesy of Sunday wins over West Coast and Melbourne respectively. The Blues have a handy run of fixtures to come, while the Power are now humming along quite nicely to silence a few of the doubters (myself among them).
As for the rest, Fremantle avoided disaster against North Melbourne, the Bulldogs did what they needed to do against St Kilda, and Collingwood kicked back with a cold beer and a pizza watching the peasants beneath them jostle for positions 2-18.
Let’s begin.
1. The flag frontrunners aren’t Collingwood
As Collingwood fans enjoy the week off, with their team a win and percentage clear atop the ladder and with a game in hand over everyone else in the top five, it’s pretty hard to dispute their status as premiership favourites.
But that’s exactly what I’m about to do – because it’s the team sitting second, having leapfrogged Brisbane and Adelaide this weekend, who I’m backing to win the flag in September.
Sure, Geelong’s latest dismemberment was only over a badly undermanned Essendon featuring a swathe of first-year players simply outmatched at the MCG; but that 95-point massacre barely scratches the surface of their menacing form.
The Cats are now on a five-match winning streak, along the way claiming the scalps of fellow flag fancies the Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast, while the 76-point hammering they handed Port Adelaide at home was more impressive than reporting of the match made it out to be.
With virtually a full-strength side now available, they lack for very little. Sam De Koning and Jack Henry are pillars in defence, with the latter’s return helping Tom Stewart get back to his very best in recent weeks; the midfield features Bailey Smith and Max Holmes in as dynamic a one-two on-ball punch that you’ll see in the AFL, with Ollie Dempsey hovering on the outside as the most dangerous wingman going around too.
Up forward, there’s Jeremy Cameron, plus an imposing second in command in Shannon Neale who looks bigger and better with every passing week, and a little-known fella by the name of P. Dangerfield terrorising defences as well. Throw in Tyson Stengle, Gryan Miers, Shaun Mannagh and Brad Close, and at the feet of the talls they have a perfect mix of crafty goalsneaks and pressure smalls that strangled the life out of the Bombers all afternoon.
That’s without even mentioning the critical role players that allow the stars to flourish – Tom Atkins as a tackling machine in the midfield, Mark Blicavs doing jobs all over the field, sometimes at the same time, Connor O’Sullivan taking to life as a key back like a duck to water, the list goes on.
So deep do the Cats bat that they have the luxury of having Mitch Duncan serve as the sub just in case they need his experience and poise late in close games, while Ollie Henry, with 78 goals in the last two years, is having to force his way back in via the VFL after a poor run of form.
As impressive as the Magpies have been, they haven’t been putting sides to the sword with the ruthless efficiency of the Cats – plus they did lose an absolute classic to a more depleted Geelong earlier in the season.
The Cats have an out of sorts Brisbane at GMHBA Stadium up next; from there, they play just one match of seven against a potential finalist following their bye. It’s entirely possible, and even likely, they’ll head to September on a 13-game winning streak.
Not only would that surely be enough to squeeze past the Pies to the top of the ladder; it would bear eerie resemblance to 2022, when they likewise reached the finals off the back of a 13-match unbeaten run.
And that’s a truly scary thought.
The Roar’s own Dem Panopoulos was right on Friday – if you’re sick of seeing Geelong dominate year after year, the rest of this season might not be for you.
Jeremy Cameron celebrates a goal. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/Getty Images)
2. A Tasmanian conspiracy theory
I can’t be the only one whose eyebrows were raised when I realised Hawthorn’s clash with Adelaide on Friday night was slated for Launceston’s UTAS Stadium.
It’s the first time the venue, hosting its 84th Hawks game, had been given the Friday night blockbuster slot, while only the second ever in Tasmania (North Melbourne hosting Richmond at Bellerive Oval in 2016, for those playing at home).
And I smell a rat.
In freezing, slippery conditions with a healthy layer of dew over the surface, the match was a brutally unwatchable slog, with two of the most attacking, dynamic sides in the game reduced to just 91 points between them.
Naturally, the reaction from many was that it was consummate proof that Tasmania does indeed need a roofed stadium for its AFL team if and when they enter the competition – and my suspicion is that that was precisely the point of scheduling the game there in the first place.
You know what else is an amazing coincidence? That the Hawks are now two from two in playing games in Launceston at night this season, after a Saturday night GWS game earlier in the year – while in the previous 24 years of them playing home games at UTAS Stadium, they’d had a grand total of … one night game there.
If the AFL wants to force the Tasmanian government’s hand, and ensure no possibility of negotiation about the stadium, and particularly the prohobitively expensive roof, then all it needs do is whack on a replay of Friday night as all the proof they need.
Here’s the thing, though: is it really mandatory for the Tasmanian team to play its home games on Friday, or indeed Thursday, night – especially in the middle of winter?
Yes, Tassie’s weather is wilder and weirder than on the mainland – plenty of games played in Hobart have seen high kicks nearly travel backwards when caught in the wind – but during the day conditions are good enough to see some excellent football. Why, North Melbourne and Melbourne once piled on 41 goals between them on the apple isle in one of the great shootouts, helped by a breeze conducive to high scoring from one end.
Before some significant stadium upgrades in 2013, Geelong had never before hosted a night match; there’s no real reason why the same can’t be true of Tasmania.
I’d also argue regular Saturday or Sunday afternoon games would be far more popular with locals wanting to go along, and indeed be more convenient for travelling fans. Instead of needing to take a day or two off work to catch a flight down on a Thursday or Friday, they could instead head over later and catch the game on either side of a full day in either Hobart or Launceston to see the sights and spend their money – a sizeable boon to the local economy.
The AFL might think it has proved the necessity of the roofed stadium; but I’m still adamant that it’s only required on their own terms. Tasmania would do fine without it … if the league let them.
Hawthorn players celebrate with Launceston fans after their win over Adelaide. (Photo by James Wiltshire/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
3. Riewoldt’s Petracca critique proves glaring commentary problem
Midway through the second quarter at the Adelaide Oval, Christian Petracca found himself running back with the flight for a high ball kicked out of defence by Port Adelaide, wisely opting not to recklessly run into the oncoming traffic and waiting for the spill.
Or at least, that’s how I saw it; commentating on Seven, Nick Riewoldt questioned whether Petracca, perhaps out of concern over the horrific injuries he suffered on King’s Birthday last year, had pulled out.
“Not committing to the contest,” was how Riewoldt put it. “That was another opportunity to go, to mark the footy.”
This sort of commentary is dangerous, quite frankly. It sets a ridiculous expectation of not just bravery from players, but foolhardiness in contesting the ball.
Petracca was never any hope of marking that footy. Going back with the flight and making a play on the ball would not only have most likely given away a free kick for front on contact, but it may well have done him serious injury – whether a concussion or more internal damage.
It’s time to stop criticising players for not going no matter the circumstances or consequences, and instead offer praise for correctly assessing that there are times when going back with the flight does more harm than good.
Christian Petracca after sustaining serious internal injuries on King’s Birthday in 2024. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
4. Brisbane will be fine
In a fortnight’s time, there’s every chance Brisbane will sit outside the top four.
Their last match before their mid-season break sees the Lions travel to GMHBA Stadium to face a red-hot Geelong, a venue they haven’t won at in 22 years. With Hawthorn and Adelaide off next week but playing North Melbourne and Richmond the week after respectively, the Lions’ two-point gap on those teams will, in all likelihood, be swallowed up.
But you know what? The reigning premiers will be absolutely fine for it.
Every great team, even the premiership-winning ones, has a lull at some point in the season – it’s simply impossible to maintain the rage from March through to September.
The Lions this year, unlike last year, have the luxury of points in the bank, and not need to be all but perfect in the run home to book themselves a finals berth, let alone the double chance.
Their run home, to be sure, is a tough one, especially compared to the teams sitting around them: they face Collingwood, Gold Coast and Fremantle on the road, plus the Hawks and Bulldogs at a Gabba fortress suddenly looking decidedly pregnable.
Doing that all without Jack Payne looms as a task too great for most teams.
But the Lions have overcome worse odds before – they were seven goals down in a semi final last year and won the flag, after all. And perhaps the need to shuffle things around to solve their Payne problem in defence, and adequately replace the enormous hole Joe Daniher has left behind in the forward line, will be exactly the challenge Chris Fagan needs to reinvigorate a team that hasn’t really reached their best thus far in their premiership defence.
Brisbane will be fine. And if they aren’t, does it matter? You can’t win the flag every year.
Finn Callaghan breaks away from Lachie Neale. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
5. North’s WA deal is fine
There has been a bit of criticism come North Melbourne’s way for their decision to sell two ‘home’ games to Western Australia, and in the process gift West Coast and Fremantle an extra match in their native state.
In particular, Matthew Richardson questioned whether the move compromises the fixture and makes the Dockers’ path to September easier.
“What I don’t like about it is it has gifted Freo a home game, basically – gifting a home game in an already compromised competition,” he said on 3AW.
Personally, I think it’s fine.
It very nearly yielded them two wins, courtesy of a titanic last-quarter comeback against Fremantle, and it nearly hit them with two losses, having been largely outplayed by an inaccurate West Coast last week.
North fans will tell you, not without cause, that their recent win rate in Perth is significantly better than it is anywhere else, owing to the Eagles’ miserable run over the last three years and an upset victory over the Dockers in early 2023.
But the main reason for the selling is, as the Kangaroos have regularly said since it was announced, that they found themselves frequently playing both Western Australian teams anyway with every year, so they may as well make some coin out of it.
Does it make things harder for them? I would argue that they were no more likely to beat the Dockers in Melbourne than they would have been in Perth – indeed, the slippery conditions at Optus Stadium on Saturday night arguably brought North Melbourne back into the game, given Freo weren’t able to move the ball with their usual vigour and the Kangaroos’ pressure was exemplary all evening.
The Roos have two more years of their current deal with the WA government: let’s reassess if, in one of those years, a narrow loss in one or both of their games across the Nullarbor ends up costing them a place in the eight.
6. Let’s talk about Caroline Wilson
There are times when footy media becomes quite frustrating to consume – an endless cycle of outlandish talking points, endless discussion on inane issues, and the all-consuming trade chat that is now a year-round experience. Take Marcus Bontempelli fielding questions after the Bulldogs’ win on Thursday night about the state of his contract discussions, for instance.
Naturally, that means there’s very little sympathy from the public when breaking stories land, particularly those that tell stories us fans don’t want to hear.
This week, that story was Caroline Wilson’s report that Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is reluctant to be traded to Adelaide should he request a trade from St Kilda, owing to Taylor Walker’s infamous racism incident four years ago.
Within an hour of the story breaking, Wanganeen-Milera’s manager hotly refuted the allegations, while the young Saint himself reportedly called Walker during the week to deny it.
That, of course, led to heated criticism of Wilson, and calls for her to be held accountable for spreading false stories, and even stripped of her AFL accreditation.
It’s the same, albeit on a greater scale, than what Mitch Cleary faced over his reporting earlier in the season that Luke Jackson was interested in a return to Melbourne, which seemed vindicated a few weeks ago when multiple outlets reported the same thing.
Here’s the thing, though: player agents are not compelled to tell the truth. In this case, Wanganeen-Milera’s trade value would be impacted if it was confirmed he wouldn’t head to the Crows under any circumstances, and potentially make a deal more difficult. Add to that the scrutiny hanging over his head from such a major story, and there was no benefit to having it out in the air.
It’s important to consider this: it is far more beneficial for Wanganeen-Milera and his agent, and indeed all AFL footballers and their associated parties, to lie in cases such as this, than it is for the journalist to report it.
Wilson is one of the most decorated AFL journalists going around, has decades of experience, multiple jobs in the industry, and a spot on a footy talk show by the main free-to-air broadcaster. There’s literally no reason for her to make up a story such as this – but there’s absolutely a reason for Wanganeen-Milera and his team to say it’s not true.
The problem is that we’ll probably never know whether it was true or not, because the likeliest place Wanganeen-Milera will end up is Port Adelaide, given his close ties and public recent catch-up with Jason Horne-Francis and Jase Burgoyne. Or he stays at the Saints.
Either way, the only way Wilson is proved to be wrong is if Wanganeen-Milera does indeed sign up with Adelaide. And if he does that, I will be the first to issue a very public apology, and question Caro on exactly where she got her story from.
Random thoughts
– I’ve never seen Esava Ratugolea play even half as well as he did on Sunday.
– The West Coast fans’ reactions when Tom McCarthy doesn’t get the Rising Star nod this week for 31 disposals on debut because some Victorian kid gets it on ‘body of work’ will be something to behold.
– It’s getting harder and harder to leave Ben Keays out of my All-Australian team.
– Speaking of All-Australian teams, Rory Lobb should be in more of them.
– If Kozzie Pickett’s kicking goals like this then that nine-year deal is honestly unders.
