Just one more week to go, footy fans, and we’ll be finally back to a full nine-game round! Huzzah!

First, though, we’ve got to navigate a deceptively easy Round 16 to tip on paper – which surely means plenty of upsets are lurking in the shadows.

Round 15 was a banana-skin round for many, with some rewarded for taking risks – North Melbourne beating Carlton – while others paid the price – tipping Gold Coast to knock over GWS, for instance – and some, well, balancing each other out by going one or the other.

Here’s who our experts are backing this weekend.

AFL tipping is BACK on The Roar for 2025! Get your tips in here.

Tim Miller

Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Adelaide, Fremantle

Well, last week featured a bit of good (trusting my gut and tipping North Melbourne to beat Carlton), a bit of bad (Gold Coast blowing a five-goal start and losing to GWS), and some ugly too (not even considering Sydney as a chance to beat Port Adelaide). The end result is I’m equal last on our expert tipping leaderboard and a long way behind anyone having a half-reasonable year.

This is a round that starts tough and flattens out considerably as the weekend goes on. Let’s speed through the easiest first: Hawthorn, Collingwood, Adelaide and Fremantle should all be comfortably besting North Melbourne, West Coast, Richmond and St Kilda respectively, with the Kangaroos the only ones I’d even give a puncher’s chance at an upset.

The Freo tip is slightly dicey given the Saints murdered them in Melbourne only a few weeks ago, but that was a different time, this is a different Dockers, and at Optus Stadium, I’m expecting the result to be reversed.

Gold Coast have come off the boil a bit in recent weeks, and a home clash against Melbourne might no longer be the slam-dunk it seemed even a fortnight ago, especially given the Dees have an excellent record at People First Stadium. Even so, there’s a big gap between the Top 9 and the rest, and even though it would benefit everyone else in that main group (particularly my Bulldogs) I can’t see the Suns dropping a fourth game in a row to leave their maiden finals campaign hopes in proper jeopardy.

That leaves two games in the worst sort of tipping limbo – where there’s a clear favourite, but a justifiable reason to pick the underdog. Odds are, too, that one will get up.

Carlton’s trip to Adelaide to face the Power is exactly the game they might just pinch – fresh off a week of intense scrutiny to light a fire under the playing group, with a mercurial team capable of hitting the switch and absolutely dominating, if only for a quarter, against a Port Adelaide opponent with their own litany of problems that got knocked over by Sydney last week – this has season-ruining game written all over it for Ken Hinkley.

That being said, just about every time I pick a roughie to win a game away from home, it blows up in my face (case in point: the Suns last week), so I’m sticking with Port and I’ll feel like an idiot if the Blues take the points.

Then, of course, we have Friday night, quite possibly the most important game of the round: a Western Bulldogs team that needs every win it can get to shore up their spot in the top eight, against a Sydney outfit probably in the last-chance saloon.

The good news for the Dogs is they’ve been massacring everyone below them on the ladder for months; the bad news is that the Swans, with Errol Gulden and Tom Papley back in the fold and fresh off dominating the Power on their own deck, might be a finals contender, against whom Luke Beveridge’s team have won just once this season.

Plus, the Dogs are 0-4 in proper away games this year – the Swans aren’t quite Fremantle, Brisbane, Geelong or (maybe) Gold Coast just yet, but with a near full-strength team, this is a serious danger game.

I’m tipping the Bulldogs – but I can tell I’m going to hate every second of this game.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Dem Panopoulos

Carlton, Sydney, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Adelaide, Fremantle

Last week of June marks the last week of the bye rounds – let us rejoice!

Maybe a little lull period in the middle of the season isn’t all that bad, allowing all stakeholders, including the consumer, to reset for an epic final three months.

Lucky we’ve got the floating fixture, the genius idea introduced by the AFL to allow for primetime fixtures to showcase some of the best matchups possible. Anyway, Thursday night is Port Adelaide vs Carlton.

I’ll go from tipping the away team in that fixture, to having to exercise caution with a ripper on Friday night between the Swans and the Bulldogs. It’s a Grand Final replay (technically that’s a true statement) and both teams are seeking to create September-related consequences for the opposition. I’m kind of leaning Sydney here – I think it might be the first Sam Darcy stinker in a while.

The Suns’ inability to capitalise on an excellent start last week was worrisome, although there were enough positive signs to indicate September is well and truly on the cards and they’ll beat Melbourne this weekend. Up next on Saturday, North’s performances shouldn’t be shocking anyone, but the belief I’ve got in these Hawks is sky-high and they won’t lose this contest.

Spoiler alert; neither will the Magpies against the Eagles, to go two and a half games clear on top of the ladder. Yikes.

Sunday is a bit of a fizzer too, if we’re honest – maybe it’s the AFL’s way of making us strongly desire full weekends of footy from July onwards, including that other genius idea of Friday double-headers that clash with each other.

Richmond will have a crack against the Crows, and I think this one could be a little closer than many are anticipating given the firepower of the travelling team. Still, I think it’s important for Adelaide to notch up some wins and positive tactics at the MCG for the future.

Finishing off the round, the Saints were valiant but lost last week, while the Dockers were utterly dominant in the middle. Again, you’d think Ross Lyon will cause some headaches out west, but extending this winning form is priority number one for Freo.

Even the biggest haters of the Dockers simply must acknowledge that this team is firing, with some improvement to come in the form of major inclusions in the coming weeks.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Liam Salter

Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Adelaide, Fremantle

Round 16, the final (very stupid) bye round. Let’s go. 

I can understand why the AFL would have assumed Thursday night’s clash could make good television in the premier primetime slot, but to me, it’s more likely to be train-crash TV. Like MAFS. I guess. 

If you’re the Blues, you’d be seeing this as an increasingly final chance to make *something* of a ruinous season. If you’re the Power, you’d be wanting to bounce back after an embarrassing loss to the Swans. I’ll back Port – at home, against the rabble that is Carlton. Surely. 

Somewhat steadying a tumultuous season are the Swans, who – against all odds, and against Joel Amartey’s performance – earned that aforementioned win in Adelaide. But the Doggies are a whole different ball game. Fortunately for the Bulldogs and their rough record against top-eight teams, the Swans aren’t there yet – but they’re bolstered by the returns of Errol Gulden et al. I’ll go the Dogs, but not without hesitation.

The Suns would be frustrated with last week’s loss, and, if you’re listening to the internet punditry, teetering on the edge of what they’ve done every time they’re making a run at finals – fall flat on their face.

They have a very good chance here to earn an important four points, and while the Dees sometimes switch on, this should be the Suns by some margin. If they’re serious. 

There’s a trio of the bottom three teams facing rather good teams. North have the most chance at a win – you’d think playing the Hawks in Tassie will nullify some of the Hawks’ usual advantage in the island state, and it’s a superb chance to garner more respectability, but the Hawks simply have more at stake. This is theirs to lose. 

The other two are much, much easier. The Eagles, try as they might, simply won’t get close to beating Collingwood (even at Marvel!), and the Crows keep on marching on, so will easily earn the win over Richmond.

And in the weekend’s finale, the onus is very much on the Dockers to atone for Round 8’s horrific loss to the Saints. A month or two later, they’re in much better form – and have a third straight game at home. That petrifies me.

I’ll back them here, but don’t talk to me come Monday if my boys drop this. Eeek. 

Round 16	Tim	Dem	Liam	Crowd
PA vs CAR	PA	CAR	PA	?
SYD vs WB	WB	SYD	WB	?
GCS vs MEL	GCS	GCS	GCS	?
HAW vs NM	HAW	HAW	HAW	?
COL vs WCE	COL	COL	COL	?
RCH vs ADE	ADE	ADE	ADE	?
FRE vs STK	FRE	FRE	FRE	?
LAST WEEK	4	5	3	4
ROLLING TOTAL	81	84	81	93