If someone had said at the start of the year that the Raiders would be riding high in first place by the end of Round 17, you would be well within your rights to tell them that some dreams are too far-fetched.
But the reality is that Canberra’s unfashionable bunch of pre-season wooden spoon contenders are sitting pretty at the top of the ladder with a 13-3 record and thoroughly deserve everything that’s come their way.
They rested their best player all season, Hudson Young, in Newcastle on Friday night and still came away with a 22-18 win built on every player filling their role to make the Green Machine hum along beautifully.
The Knights’ loss was compounded by captain Kalyn Ponga limping off with a foot injury midway through the second half and he will undergo weekend scans to see if he will be fit for the Origin decider at Accor Stadium on July 9.
Earlier at Brookvale Oval, the Tom Trbojevic to centre switch got off to a solid start with Manly thumping a lacklustre Wests Tigers outfit 28-10.
1. Raiders rise to top spot
The Green Machine are first, have a super chance of winning the minor premiership and it’s time to concede that the title may indeed be not beyond them.
Many pundits thought it was nice to see Ricky Stuart’s side win a few games earlier in the year.
Then it became a case of these guys deserve some respect.
That has morphed into this team could not only make the top four but claim the minor premiership, particularly given they have two more byes plus a marshmallow-soft run to the finals with the Dragons (twice), Eels, Knights again, Sea Eagles, Panthers, Tigers and Dolphins on the horizon
They are third favourites with the bookmakers behind the Bulldogs and Storm for the title by virtue of the fact that those teams have many more stars on their roster.
But that is the beauty of Stuart’s melting pot – they don’t need stars even though they have a few elite performers in Joseph Tapine and Hudson Young.
Canberra have a strength in numbers – it’s already taken them a long way and it’s now not beyond the realms of possibility that it could take them all the way.
2. Ponga injury puts Origin in doubt
Ponga could be forced to miss the State of Origin decider after injuring his foot at McDonald Jones Stadium, limping off with 20 minutes to go.
The star fullback was below his best in the series opener and put in an improved performance in Perth as the Maroons squared the ledger.
He was quiet in the first half but created two line breaks as Newcastle threatened to make a comeback in the second stanza.
Ponga pulled up lame after a stock-standard tackle from Morgan Smithies, immediately clutching at his left boot.
If he is ruled out, Queensland coach Billy Slater has Brisbane speedster Reece Walsh at the ready after his stirring recent return from a knee injury while Dolphins ace Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow could also be switched to the No.1 jersey from the wing.
3. Canberra keep their cool despite late flurry
The Raiders spent most of the first half absorbing defensive pressure and in the 10 minutes they managed to get up the other end of the ground they put on three tries.
Simi Sasagi, elevated to start to give Young a rest during the Origin season, did his best impersonation of the regular wearer of the No.11 jersey to bully Ponga out of the way to retrieve a high kick for the first try before Kaeo Weekes and Ethan Strange added their names to the scoresheet.
There were a few boos again as the Knights trudged off at half-time down 16-0 and just like their comeback win over Manly, they were re-energised in the second half with James Schiller crossing twice against his old club, along with Jermaine McEwen.
But the decisive play came in the 60th minute when Jed Stuart scored in his second NRL match to delight his dad on the sideline, backing up a Strange break to slide past Dominic Young.
Josh Papalii makes a hit-up. (Photo by Scott Gardiner/Getty Images)
4. Turbo switches to Origin mode
Manly only had to look at the tape of Trbojevic in Origin from a couple of years ago to see how he can be a game-changer even when he’s away from his favoured fullback position at centre.
Anthony Seibold has switched him to the No.4 jersey to give Lehi Hopoate a chance to shine at fullback and to ease the load on Trbojevic’s fragile frame.
He was the designated right centre but, just as he did when he was at his best with the Blues, he floated to the other side of the field to cause havoc down the left edge by creating an overlap.
Trbojevic had a hand in two tries and although he made a bad defensive read which led to an Alex Seyfarth try, there was enough there to suggest to Seibold that it’s worth sticking with this move for the timebeing.
The Tigers’ porcelain defence held firm for nearly the entire first half before Trbojevic flicked for Jason Saab to give Manly a 6-0 lead a minute out from the siren.
Trbojevic combined with Hopoate on the left to send Reuben Garrick to the cornerpost unchallenged and when Tolu Koula crossed in the 46th minute, the hosts held a 16-0 advantage.
Seyfarth’s strike narrowed the gap to 12 but Corey Waddell’s touchdown on the hour mark ensured the Sea Eagles would win with Ben Trbojevic adding another before Tallyn Da Silva claimed a late consolation four-pointer.
5. Seibold situation slightly clearer
If the Sea Eagles top brass were going to punt Seibold on the strength of their performances against the Tigers this week and Souths next round, he has at least cleared the first hurdle.
Although a win over this rabble does not prove much of anything.
Basically, if Manly had managed to lose to Wests then the boardroom would have more than enough ammunition to give Seibold his marching orders.
They have now improved their record to 7-8 to remain on the fringe of the top eight but they are still a long way from respectability.
The Kick: Tigers a mess – no more, no less
That’s six losses on the trot now for the Tigers and in the unlikely event of Parramatta, South Sydney and Gold Coast all winning later in the round, they could be occupying the bottom rung of the ladder.
This was supposed to be the year where the club turned its fortunes around after three straight wooden spoons.
Benji Marshall had emerged from his rookie season relatively unscathed and he had some high-profile recruits to work with as he tried to restore pride in the joint venture club.
But their attack is toothless, they don’t run with intent and their defence goes missing far too often.
And with Da Silva potentially getting a release in the next few days, first-choice rake Api Koroisau suffering a category-one concussion and Jarome Luai likely to be on NSW duty, the Tigers are set to roll out a makeshift spine next Sunday against the Roosters.
Although their opponents will be missing as many as five Origin stars, the Roosters could have another five out and still be red-hot favourites the way the Tigers are travelling right now – straight down to the cellar.
