Why Paul Skenes should be an All-Star starter despite Pirates’ record


Not only was Skenes selected to the game on Sunday, he also started the Pirates game in Seattle and was masterful, throwing five more shutout innings and striking out a season-high 10 batters before inexplicably being lifted after just 78 pitches. 

For all of that dominant work, he earned yet another no-decision and continues an absolutely shocking run of starts where he has not been able to get a win. 

Not only did Skenes leave with no run support — again — the Pirates’ bullpen surrendered a solo home run just three batters after he left the game. It was the only offense Seattle would need in a 1-0 series sweep that saw the Pirates score zero runs in the three games. 

Skenes has not actually had a win for himself since May 28, and only has one since May 1. He has been shut out in the win column since then despite having a 1.74 ERA in his 13 starts over that stretch. Those numbers defy logic. 

For the season, his individual record is only a dismal 4-7 despite allowing one earned run or less in 13 of his 19 starts. 

He has allowed more than two earned runs just three times. 

That record will be the one thing that might hold him back in Cy Young voting, and it might be the one thing that prevents him from getting a second straight All-Star start when somebody like, say, Philadelphia Phillies starter Zack Wheeler owns a 9-3 record and was masterful himself on Sunday with a complete game, 12-strikeout win against the Cincinnati Reds. 

But this is just another example of how a win-loss record is a terrible metric for evaluating starting pitchers. It’s a team stat and not at all a reflection of how the individual pitcher is performing. 

While Skenes’ win-loss record is below .500, and while the Pirates left Sunday’s game with a losing record in Skenes’ starts overall (9-10), every piece of objective evidence points to him being the best starting pitcher in the National League and arguably the best in MLB.

After Sunday’s start, his ERA for the season is down to 1.94. Nobody in the National League is better, and only Houston’s Hunter Brown (1.82 entering Sunday) was lower. 

His 0.92 WHIP is also second in the National League (behind only Wheeler’s 0.84) and sixth in the league.

He also entered Sunday leading the National League in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) among starting pitchers at 4.5, while also being among the league’s leaders in innings pitched. 

He’s the best starting pitcher in the National League. He’s in the top two or three in MLB, and perhaps even at the top. He is an All-Star for the second time in as many years to start his career. He should be starting the game again. Even if he never actually gets any wins. 



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