Some things change, and others stay the same as the biggest weekend of the AFL season comes to its conclusion.
Adelaide and GWS are officially contenders, the Western Bulldogs remain pretenders, and Sydney have kept the faintest of finals flames flickering with a thoroughly unconvincing win over St Kilda in an unexpectedly thrilling Sunday encounter.
Even the match that looked likeliest to be a blowout provided an entertaining end to the round, with West Coast looking good for a massive upset until Port Adelaide woke up to themselves and piled on the goals late for a victory that was far less comfortably than the margin suggests.
Perhaps the most surprising thing of all? I actually tipped well this week – thank you, Gold Coast, GWS and Fremantle!
Let’s dive in.
1. The premiership race has never been more open
Round 18 always loomed as the weekend in which the wheat would be separated from the chaff as far as the top nine goes, and so it has proved.
The problem? There’s now precious little to separate eight of those teams – and where a week ago several tiers to rank everyone seemed feasible, now there’s a legitimate case to make for all of them to claim premiership glory in a little under three months’ time.
We’ll get to the ninth of those teams – the perennially frustrating Western Bulldogs – later in this column, but first, let’s focus on the rest, and the statements made, opportunities missed and possibilities opened up in just 24 dramatic hours.
The big winners? For mine, Adelaide – their dazzling victory over the Bulldogs, more comfortable than the 11-point final margin would suggest, was a double whammy, both satisfying their need for a major scalp and proving their ability to win big games on the road.
Riley Thilthorpe was a colossus up forward as part of that oft-discussed three-tall structure that at the moment is working perfectly, Jordan Dawson’s Brownlow Medal case grows with every passing week, Mark Keane – and the rest of the Crows’ defence – managed to hold Sam Darcy to a relatively quiet game, and I think my thoughts on Dan Curtin’s performance off a wing have been made abundantly clear.
In a match that was always going to leave the loser’s top-four hopes majorly dented, the Crows now not only have the inside running on the double chance, but even a top-two berth – and with it two precious, precious Adelaide Oval finals. They’ve got a tricky run home, but it’s eminently possible – and in any case, a qualifying final road trip doesn’t seem quite as daunting anymore.
Gold Coast’s scalp was even bigger, that of Collingwood – and while there were the caveats of the Pies being undermanned and playing about as poorly as they have all season, the truth of the matter is that for all intents and purposes, the Suns are in the top four right now, with Essendon set to be barely able to field a 22 for their rescheduled Opening Round match in a few weeks’ time.
But in any other week, either of GWS or Fremantle’s big home wins over Geelong and Hawthorn respectively would easily be the round’s biggest statements.
After a flat stretch mid-season, the Giants have well and truly got their mojo back: that’s now three consecutive wins over finals contenders in Brisbane, the Suns and the Cats in which they’ve racked up a triple-figure score. The Orange Tsunami is irresistible in full flight, and while they’re seventh at the moment – albeit just percentage off fourth – there’s a case they’re playing the best football of anyone at the moment.
Still in danger of missing the eight, Adam Kingsley’s men have firmly thrust themselves into the premiership mix.
In similar danger at three-quarter time on Saturday night were Fremantle, who looked set to again be the story of the week as they trailed a supremely impressive and ferocious Hawthorn.
Cue their best 30 minutes since their comeback win in the 2022 elimination final, with the Dockers – and Andrew Brayshaw in particular – throwing themselves into the breach to simply blow the Hawks apart with pure ferocity for a famous victory that launches them back into the eight.
It’s where they belong, too: for all their detractors, the Dockers have an excellent record against their fellow finals contenders, especially at home. They’re still the most vulnerable of the current top eight, and a Round 24 date on the road with the Bulldogs looms as a potential eighth spot play-off; but right now, that loss to Sydney is looking more like a blip than a sign of decline.
As for the losers, the Magpies’ gap on the rest of the competition gives them a well-deserved mulligan for a poor night in which they very nearly pinched a win regardless; while the Hawks lost few admirers in heading west and coming perilously close to taking down Freo, even if that loss does just about put a line through their top-four hopes.
But if the big story this week is the Bulldogs, then Geelong are surely second.
I had them as my second seed going into the weekend – that’s not the case anymore. Remarkably for such a famously miserly defensive unit, only the Bulldogs have shipped more points to the other teams in the top nine than the Cats. Twice now GWS have ripped through them with breakneck pace and exposed a defence that, without Sam De Koning on Saturday, looks decidedly shaky.
If Jake Stringer is tearing your backline apart, then you’ve got problems. And while they have a soft run home that just about guarantees they won’t lose another game, and with it nab a top-four or even top-two spot, it means we won’t know if Geelong can fix those problems against the very best until, most likely, week one of the finals.
Daniel Curtin celebrates a goal. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
2. Jack Graham got off lightly for homophobic slur
The reaction to news of Jack Graham’s four-game suspension for a homophobic slur last week has been … predictable.
Some have chosen to compare it to Willie Rioli only receiving one week for threatening Bailey Dale, or the multitude of less significant suspensions dealt out for on-field conduct resulting in significant injuries. The genuine consensus was that the ban was way over the top, political correctness gone mad, and the latest example of the AFL focussing on petty nonsense rather than the important issues fans are frustrated with.
So I’ll go the other way. Graham should have been suspended for far longer. In fact, he should have been banned for the rest of the season.
Why? Well, the AFL’s message last year following a spate of on-field homophobic slurs was that further transgressions would result in steadily growing time spent on the sidelines.
Jeremy Finlayson, the first player cited, got three weeks – not long after, Will Powell got four. Then, in a VFL incident, Saint Lance Collard was slapped with a hefty six-week suspension.
By that logic, then it stands to reason Graham should have got a greater suspension – and the fact the Eagles’ season had seven games to go on the eve of their clash with Port Adelaide makes that specific ban the right one in my book.
Frankly, if, after all the media coverage and hefty bans handed out last year to three separate players for homophobic slurs, you’re a big enough moron and/or bigot to do it again, then there should be no sympathy, no mitigating circumstances, no discount for being upfront about it or apologising directly to the CEO, as Graham did.
Jack Graham. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
I’m staggered that a reason cited for the reduced sanction to ‘only’ four weeks is that Graham and the Eagles self-reported. It’s like if a cricketer was praised for walking off after a massive nick behind that the umpire didn’t give out but the opposition reviewed – why do you get points for honesty if there’s evidence on hand to implicate you anyway?
I’d be deeply, deeply sceptical if it was only deep guilt at using homophobic language, rather than trying to get ahead of the story, is what prompted Graham to self-report – and even if that is indeed the case, it shouldn’t matter anyway.
As for the idea that a threat from Rioli is worse than homophobic abuse, I cite the point I made back when that story broke in May: ‘however threatening the message, the only one affected by it is the person receiving it, whereas homphobia is a direct slur against an entire community of innocent bystanders’.
That’s exactly the point: if you’re a gay AFL supporter, or worse, a player, then the fact any footballer would use a homophobic slur as a go-to insult surely makes the game less welcoming. That’s something we should absolutely be striving for.
As of 2025, no senior AFL male footballer has openly come out to the public. Why on earth would they, if their sexuality is still deemed slur-worthy by yet another fellow player.
Speaking of those threatening messages, though…
3. 2025’s biggest overreaction
Sure, it’s not an apples for apples case, but I find it very interesting the difference in reaction to Willie Rioli sending a threatening text to Bailey Dale, and when a Collingwood supporter’s ‘death threat’ aimed at Michael Voss was finally publicised after several days of speculation and innuendo.
It transpired that the supporter had actually sent a message to the MCG’s antisocial hotline: “I’d like to report 23 missing persons and preemptively report the murder of Michael Voss”.
The worst I can say about this is that it’s not as funny as the sender thought it was, and the people that monitor that hotline have better things to do than have their time wasted by jokes like this. The hotline’s there for a reason.
At the same time, a five-year ban for that – from both the AFL and the Melbourne Cricket Club – is the biggest overreaction of 2025 by a country mile.
This isn’t a death threat – and of course, Victoria Police quickly came to the conclusion that there was no threat to Voss’ wellbeing, even if the Blues decided to beef up his security detail for their clash with Brisbane.
Worse things are posted on social media, or screamed from the stands, every single day of the football season: the invective I’ve heard from Blues fans themselves at Voss is considerably harsher and more likely to incite violence than this.
It seems likely to me that the AFL wanted a scapegoat to try and curb abuse, which is fine – but the punishment also has to fit the crime.
In any case, it’s a hell of a price to pay for a gag gone wrong.
4. Josh Daicos is wasted at half-back
Poor Josh Daicos.
He’s an All-Australian, best and fairest in a premiership year and absolute superstar of the competition … and yet at every turn, he gets overshadowed by his generational little brother.
That’s why, for his sake, and after his heroic last quarter to very nearly drag Collingwood to an unlikely comeback win over Gold Coast, I’m starting a petition: Craig McRae, please stop wasting Josh Daicos at half-back.
Oh sure, he’s an incredible kick, a great decision-maker, a cool head under pressure and is an exceptional asset driving the ball out of defence.
But it turns out when you play him on the ball, as he did for pretty much the first time under McRae after starting first on the wing and then moving to the backline this year, he’s every bit the insane talent Nick is.
No one in the AFL this year has played a greater final quarter than the elder Daicos’ on Friday night.
16 disposals, four clearances, six score involvements, two goals and approximately half a million SuperCoach points – he was everywhere. And with his pace and beautiful skills both causing havoc in a Gold Coast midfield that had up until his move had it all their own way, the No.7 showed he can be a serious September weapon if unleashed into the midfield more often.
McRae has a decision to make now. The Pies’ midfield has got the job done all year, but against the Suns, looked a touch one-paced, with Tom Mitchell and Ned Long not offering much offensively – it’s no secret things improved markedly when Scott Pendlebury was subbed on and Josh Daicos moved in.
The Pies still have a significant gap to the second-placed Brisbane, so perhaps the best way to continue to experiment is to shift a banged-up Nick to the relatively easier street of half-back or even the forward line for the next few weeks, now that his brother has proven to be a midfielder not only equal to him, but maybe, dare I say it, just a fraction better at his very, very best.
5. The Bulldogs’ problems aren’t in personnel
For many Bulldogs supporters, their worst fears came true on Saturday afternoon at Marvel Stadium.
Playing with only two key defenders in James O’Donnell and Rory Lobb, Adelaide’s three tall forwards in Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker bagged 11 goals between them, with Thilthorpe’s six the difference between the two teams.
But having seen every minute of what was probably an entertaining shootout for fans of 16 other clubs but for Dogs fans was a deeply unenjoyable day at the office, I’m of the view that Luke Beveridge could have picked Matthew Scarlett or Darren Glass, never mind Liam Jones or Jedd Busslinger, and it still wouldn’t have made a difference.
The Bulldogs play 1990s football – uber-aggressive, pushing numbers up to the ball and leaving ample space out back. As a general rule, their spare behind the ball – when they employ one – is in an attacking position one backwards handball away from the contest, damaging when things are going well but problematic if the opposition gets the footy, because then they become a glorified extra watching the ball sail over their heads to a backline left on a series of islands by teams with dangerous forwards, which all of the top eight possess.
It’s fine when your midfield can utterly dominate, as they have done week after week against the weaker teams in the competition: but when a team can do as the Crows did and match them there and prevent Sam Darcy from marking everywhere in attack, then there will be options galore going back the other way.
Premiership contenders don’t leak 11 goals from turnovers, as the Bulldogs did. Having a high-quality key back, or just plain more of them, isn’t going to help: when you’re leaving backmen isolated inside a vacant forward 50, as poor Rory Lobb was on multiple occasions, then it’s inevitable what will occur.
At the same time, wanting to increase numbers around stoppages is starting to backfire: Ryley Sanders is now playing on a wing and looking to join the mass around the ball wherever possible, and the Crows ruthlessly exposed his problems in open space with Isaac Cumming hitting the scoreboard in the opening quarter.
The Dogs’ season is far from shot: with games against GWS and Fremantle to come, their destiny is still in their own hands.
But something, at some point, has to change with the way they set up: whether it’s recalling more pure defenders, or even just throwing a spare or even two behind the ball, the Dogs will keep racking up cricket scores against the weakies, and losing shootouts to anyone good.
6. The problem with latest round of AFLW hot takes
The AFLW making news at any time, never mind in its off-season, is rarely for good reasons these days.
This week, the negativity surrounded a reported $50 million loss the league is making, with the AFL and CEO Andrew Dillon adamant that player push for an expanded season is going to be too ruinously expensive to even consider anytime soon.
Naturally, the reaction from some corners of the public has been to once again sink the boots into women’s football in general with the usual spiel – it’s unwatchable, no one goes to it, it shouldn’t be clogging up our airwaves, you know all the drill.
That line of thinking obviously sucks – but both it and the league’s concern around that $50 million shortfall misses, in my view, the same basic point about both women’s sport and sport in general.
Firstly, this post on X from The Back Pocket Podcast‘s Jack Turner sums up why the framing of that ‘loss’ is problematic better than I possibly could.
The AFL aren’t alone in this thinking, but as the self-appointed custodians of our game, a relentless focus on making even more money than the Scrooge McDuck-esque wealth they currently hoard, is in my view not what their core aim should be.
At its heart, the AFL’s core interest should be what makes Australian football better, not what makes it more profitable. Indeed, I’d argue as a registered non-profit entity exempt from paying income tax, the AFL boasting about the gargantuan sums of money it rakes in as gross income every year isn’t something to celebrate. They’re not investing enough into the game if that’s the profit they’re making, in short.
More than anything the league have done in a generation, running, promoting and investing in the AFLW at every level, from kid’s clinics to community football to the big league itself, is good for Australian football, as well as good for society as a whole.
Surely no matter what your stance on the AFLW as a competition is, we can all agree that getting more people involved in and playing sport is a good thing, and something to be encouraged by all.
Earlier this year, the AFL reported a $45.4 million profit for 2024, even including the money spent on AFLW. They’re hardly strapped for cash.
The AFLW is in its first decade of competition, and facing significant barriers to its continued expansion, most of them set by the league that funds them.
Fixturing, especially in last year’s disaster of a draw, is often not conducive to high attendances, especially for its core demographic of young girls and women. Crowds are further impeded by playing all games at venues with significantly limited capacity, in the eyes of many a cynical attempt to ensure the AFLW couldn’t possibly meet the markers hierarchy set to further expand.
And everyone, whether they’re pro-AFLW or not, seems to agree that the rapid expansion of the competition from eight teams in its inaugural season to the full 18 now has done plenty of harm – that’s something the NRLW, though I dispute the claims it’s the gold standard of women’s sporting competition in Australia, has avoided thus far.
The reality is this – if there’s one thing the AFL absolutely should be spending money on, no matter how much it costs them, no matter how much it recoups, it’s women’s football.
Hell, I’d say as the key decision-makers for the sport, it’s their duty.
Random thoughts
– I feel so mean saying this, but if I was a Saints fan I’d be hoping Alix Tauru turns into a forward, because his kicking down back is starting to become a liability.
– Brodie Grundy is the All-Australian ruckman. End of story.
– It’s quite amusing that the only two Victorian teams to win this weekend were Richmond and Melbourne.
– As a Dogs fan, I can’t make a case for why Sam Darcy wasn’t fined for the whack to Jordon Butts like Marcus Windhager was.
– Day 457 of me not getting the criticism of Harley Reid. The kid is a dead set superstar, and will get even better if and when the Eagles become remotely decent.
– The Hawks lost, but Lloyd Meek returning home to face the two ruckmen who pushed him out the door and pantsing them both was an incredible flex.
