India and the US are continuing with negotiations for the bilateral trade agreement, with officials in New Delhi noting that it is still too early to assess the impact of the proposed reciprocal tariffs that US President Donald Trump has said will come into effect from August 1.
“Apart from the tariffs on China, there are only announcements of the US intent to levy reciprocal tariffs on countries. They have not come into effect, and the relative position for Indian exports has not changed as of now,” noted official sources, adding that the impact of these will be assessed as and when they play out.
As of now, there is a 10% baseline tariff by the US on almost all countries, while its tariff on Chinese goods is at about 55%. The US has also levied sector-specific tariffs on items including auto components, steel, and aluminium.
“Recent US trade data shows that the import reduction is largely in these sectors and largely for goods from China. Overall, tariff collections by the US have increased, but imports have not decreased for now,” officials noted.
But with concerns over the possible impact of the US tariffs on Indian exports, the Department of Commerce is planning to start a global trade watch from next month that will monitor what is happening across the world and how India should strategise with regard to its imports.
“India continues to do well in exports, so government policies are having an impact, which has helped build resiliency in exports and led to assured export markets,” sources noted.
As per provisional data, India’s merchandise exports remained almost flat at $ 35.14 billion in June 2025 from $ 35.16 billion in June 2024, while imports decreased to $53.92 billion in June 2025 from $ 56 billion in June last year.
However, the cumulative exports (merchandise and services) during April-June 2025 grew by 5.94% to an estimated $ 210.31 billion, as compared to $ 198.52 billion in April-June 2024.
Officials also clarified that despite announcements by the US on levying an additional 10% tariff on BRICS countries and separate tariffs on those countries dealing with Russia, negotiations for the India-US trade deal continue as per the terms of reference that was decided earlier.
“The negotiations are in progress as per the decision of the leaders and the terms of reference decided,” they said, adding that the BTA is being negotiated as per the timeline decided in February of the first tranche being completed.
Expectations however continue that a limited deal may be signed before the end of the month. A team of official from India are currently in the US and another round of negotiations to clinch the deal are set to start from Wednesday.
Chief negotiator of India and special secretary in the Department of Commerce, Rajesh Agrawal, will join the team on Wednesday. The four-day talks start on Monday and will end on Thursday.
Other trade deals
Meanwhile, India is also pushing ahead with trade deals with other countries. While the second round of negotiations for the India-New Zealand free trade agreement is currently underway in New Delhi, the 12th round of talks on the India-European Union FTA concluded last week in Brussels. The next round of discussions is scheduled for the first week of September, when a delegation from the EU will visit India.
“We have exchanged our offers on services and non-services… There were discussions on that. We also discussed key interests in market access related to goods as well… The next round of talks will be held in the first week of September,” said L Satya Srinivas, Special Secretary in the Department of Commerce.
India is also working on the FTA review with ASEAN nations, where nine rounds of talks have already taken place. The 10th round of talks is scheduled for August in New Delhi. While there has been some progress in areas like customs, trade facilitation, and technical cooperation, more discussions are needed.
