Manly have shown they won’t give up their hunt for a playoff berth without a fight while the Warriors have kept the Broncos at bay for another week.

The Sea Eagles caused the biggest boilover in Round 20 when they upset the Storm by two at AAMI Park while the Warriors looked like their four-point lead on Brisbane was going to be halved until they produced an after-the-siren try to sink the Knights at McDonald Jones Stadium.

Newcastle’s faint finals hopes are now all but over after the 20-15 loss.

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Cronulla’s win over the Roosters on Friday night also had massive ramifications for the finals equation with the Sharks rising to seventh and the Tricolours dropping out of the top eight to now be 10th on the NRL ladder.

Team by team, here’s how each team is shaping up heading into the final seven weeks of the regular season. 

The run home for each team

1. Canberra (34 points, 15-3 record, +132 differential)  

Run home: Knights (home) Dragons (away) Sea Eagles (home) bye, Panthers (away) Tigers (home) Dolphins (away) 

Their 40-16 win over Parramatta was not as easy as the final scoreline suggested after three late tries but they have taken another huge step towards their first minor premiership since 1990. 

Predicted finish: 1st

2. Canterbury (32 points, 13-4 record, +98 differential)  

Run home: Sea Eagles (home) Tigers (away) Warriors (home) Roosters (away) Storm (away) Panthers (home) Sharks (home) 

They only just got home against the Dragons at Homebush to leapfrog Melbourne into second but they can’t afford a slip-up in the run home with the Storm holding a much better differential.

Predicted finish: 3rd 

Lachlan Galvin of the Bulldogs celebrates with teammates (Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)

3. Melbourne (30 points, 12-5 record, +218 differential)  

Run home: Roosters (away) Eels (away) Broncos (home) Panthers (away) Bulldogs (home) Roosters (home) Broncos (away)

The loss to Manly means their hopes of jagging the minor premiership are all but over. 

It is a rough run home for Craig Bellamy’s side with only Parramatta in Round 22 out of finals contention. 

It would be a surprise if they drop any lower than third and considering they have finished outside the top four once in the past decade (an “abysmal” fifth in 2022), they will enter the finals with two bites at the cherry.

Predicted finish: 2nd

4. Warriors (30 points, 12-5 record, +36 differential)  

Run home: Titans (home) Dolphins (home) Bulldogs (away) Dragons (home) Titans (away) Eels (home) Sea Eagles (away) 

The nail-biting win over Newcastle helps their chances of hanging onto fourth spot despite season-ending injuries to Mitch Barnett and Luke Metcalf with only two top-eight teams left on their schedule.

If the Broncos fly home, they could get overtaken on for-and-against.

Predicted finish: 4th

Leka Halasima celebrates. (Photo by Scott Gardiner/Getty Images)

5. Broncos (26 points, 10-7 record, 80 differential)  

Run home: Eels (home) Rabbitohs (home) Storm (away) Dolphins (home) Knights (away) Cowboys (away) Storm (home)  

Two matches against Melbourne in the run home loom as the key to the Broncos potentially reeling in the Warriors or having to go straight into sudden death in the finals.

Judging by their mostly up and down season, it’s tough to see the Broncos winning more than five of their remaining seven matches so they will probably need the Warriors to stumble to rise any higher.

Predicted finish: 5th

6. Penrith (25 points, 9-1-7 record, +45 differential)  

Run home: Tigers (home) Titans (away) Knights (away) Storm (home) Raiders (home) Bulldogs (away) Dragons (away) 

A three-game stretch of Melbourne, Canberra and Canterbury will define their season.

The premiers have done well to claw their way up the ladder from last and are riding high after six straight wins. But the cumulative effect of Origin and the energy they’ve spent to get up to sixth will catch up with them. 

Predicted finish: 7th

7. Manly (24 points, 9-8 record, +60 differential)  

Run home: Bulldogs (away) Roosters (home) Raiders (away) Tigers (away) Dolphins (home) Dragons (away) Warriors (home) 

Their finals chances will go on the line over the next few weeks with a succession of top-quality opponents on the horizon but they are off to a strong start by beating Melbourne.

Anthony Seibold could be cleaning out his desk by season’s end if the Sea Eagles fade out of finals contention.

Predicted finish: 10th

8. Cronulla (24 points, 10-8 record, +21 differential)  

Run home: Rabbitohs (away) Cowboys (home) Dragons (away) Titans (home) bye, Knights (home) Bulldogs (away) 

It’s a powder puff run home for the Sharks after getting the better of the Roosters last Friday –  they have six weeks of cannon fodder awaiting them before tackling the Bulldogs in the final round.

As they have shown in recent seasons, they can put away the dud teams, it’s the better-quality ones they meet in the finals that cause them trouble.

Predicted finish: 6th

Oregon Kaufusi is tackled. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

9. Dolphins (22 points, 9-9 record, +169 differential)  

Run home: bye, Warriors (away) Roosters (home) Broncos (away) Sea Eagles (away) Titans (home) Raiders (home) 

The NRL’s newest franchise is battling away as injuries test their depth and their run home is not too shabby.

Their Round 23 rumble with the Roosters could end up deciding who gets the last spot in the eight – the Phins need to jag an upset or two when they take on the Warriors, Broncos and Raiders.

Predicted finish: 9th

10. Roosters (22 points, 8-9 record, 21 differential)  

Run home: Storm (home) Sea Eagles (away) Dolphins (away) Bulldogs (home) Eels (away) Storm (away) Rabbitohs (home) 

With five finals contenders on their slate, the Roosters are no sure things to cling onto a top-eight berth even with Sam Walker back in the No.7 jersey.

They will likely win four or five of their remaining matches to just scrape in but last Friday’s loss to mid-table comrades Cronulla could come back to haunt them in the final wash-up.

Predicted finish: 8th

11. St George Illawarra (18 points, 6-11 record, -58 differential)  

Run home: Cowboys (away) Raiders (home) Sharks (home) Warriors (away) Rabbitohs (away) Sea Eagles (home) Panthers (home) 

It’s wishful thinking to predict any team from the Dragons down is even a faint hope of making the playoffs.

Shane Flanagan’s side would need to win all seven of their final fixtures but there has been nothing to suggest all season that this team is capable of being anything other than a mid-table plodder.

Predicted finish: 12th 

12. Wests Tigers (18 points, 7-11 record, -102 differential)  

Run home: Panthers (away) Bulldogs (home) bye, Sea Eagles (home) Cowboys (home) Raiders (away) Titans (away)  

It would be so Wests Tigers for them to finish the season with a mini resurgence – not enough to get near the finals but enough to breed some sort of optimism.

They have a relatively healthy squad and a decent run home so they should rise a few rungs on the ladder, mainly due to the teams around them going backwards in a hurry.

Predicted finish: 11th

13. North Qld (17 points, 6-1-11 record, -163 differential)  

Run home: Dragons (home) Sharks (away) Eels (away) Knights (home) Tigers (away) Broncos (home) bye

It could all go pear-shaped pretty quickly at this club with Todd Payten on shaky ground in the tropics. 

Their draw only contains two current finals teams but on recent form, this mob are good for a decent performance once every three or four weeks.

Predicted finish: 13th

14. Newcastle (16 points, 6-12 record, -90 differential)  

Run home: Raiders (away) bye, Panthers (home) Cowboys (away) Broncos (home) Sharks (away) Eels (away)  

Another club teetering on the brink of an overdue overhaul in the coaching staff and roster.

Kalyn Ponga was going now he’s staying (probably), Adam O’Brien looks like he’s gone and Fletcher Sharpe is a goner for the rest of this season due to his lacerated kidney. It all adds up to the Knights sinking further into the abyss. 

Predicted finish: 16th

15. South Sydney (16 points, 6-12 record, -149 differential)  

Run home: Sharks (home) Broncos (away) Titans (away) Eels (home) Dragons (home) bye, Roosters (away)

It’s not looking good for Wayne Bennett’s hopes of avoiding the first wooden spoon of his career but the Bunnies should have enough experience on their side to grind out enough wins to keep them away from the cellar.

Injuries have been a major factor in the team never really getting going in 2025 but it cannot be ignored that after finishing 16th last year, they will end up somewhere similar for a second straight season.

Predicted finish: 15th

16. Parramatta (16 points, 5-12 record, -149 differential)  

Run home: Broncos (away) Storm (home) Cowboys (home) Rabbitohs (away) Roosters (home) Warriors (away) Knights (home) 

Of the teams guaranteed to miss the finals, the Eels are the only ones who will be happy with their 2025 campaign.

New coach Jason Ryles has uncovered plenty of young talent and with Dylan Brown following a host of experienced fading stars out the blue and gold exit, they are well set up for not just next year but the rest of this decade while Mitchell Moses is running the show in the No.7 jersey.

Predicted finish: 14th