It’s not officially designated like in the olden days, but make no mistake – Round 20 is Rivalry Round in the AFL.
Forget the Victorian teams that all hate each other equally – this weekend, it’s the four other states that take the lion’s share of the attention – unless you’re Channel 7 or the league’s fixture designators, who have pushed all four grudge matches away from prime time.
Nevertheless, we’ve got Ken Hinkley’s final Showdown at Port Adelaide, the most important QClash ever, and on Friday night, a Sydney Derby with more finals implications than any game we’ve yet seen this year. A GWS win officially makes September action a race in nine, while for Sydney, victory would be sweet not just for them, but for the Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Gold Coast and everyone else clamouring for precious spots in the eight.
Oh, and Fremantle play West Coast.
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Tim Miller
Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Brisbane, Fremantle, Geelong, Adelaide, Collingwood, St Kilda
This is a weird round – it’s pretty much split between keenly anticipated, crucial affairs and what loom as one-sided slopfests.
Let’s get the latter out of the way first. Fremantle have had some trouble accounting for the weaker sides in the competition this year while being the best in the business at handling the top nine, but not even that gives West Coast any chance in Harley Reid’s last the Derby.
On Saturday night, in surely the least-watched game of the weekend, Geelong’s cruisy run to September begins against North Melbourne; that might only be challenged by Essendon against the Western Bulldogs, with the latter all but certain to storm to an empty-calories big win while Channel 7 fume as everyone who can turns over to the Sydney Derby at quarter time.
On Sunday afternoon, the dream 2:10pm timeslot will likely mean a massive crowd for Richmond and Collingwood, even though that start time makes absolutely no sense with a game on at 3:15 to overlap with half of it.
The two matches that bookend the round aren’t quite as unappealing – St Kilda and Melbourne presents as a battle of two evenly matched battlers, while Thursday night sees the farewell of Sam Docherty. Expect Carlton to try everything to give him an ideal send-off but still fall short against a superior Hawthorn, while the Saints at Marvel Stadium should get the win they’ve been building towards for a month now against the Dees – though this is my least confident tip for the week.
That leaves three rippers – and what a coincidence, they all happen to be cross-town rivalries from outside Victoria, and all are going to be exclusively on Fox outside their home states! Huzzah!
Showdowns are always random and bear very little resemblance to formlines or ladder predictors – especially when they’ve got emotion riding on them, like there is for Port Adelaide in Ken Hinkley’s farewell. If Jason Horne-Francis was playing, I’d be seriously tempted to back the Power; but he’s not, and Adelaide quite frankly have too much at stake on a multitude of levels to let this one slip.
The QClash dominates Saturday afternoon, and I simply can’t see Gold Coast winning it. They should put up a better showing than against Adelaide last week, but with Brisbane beginning to streamline their push to September and the Suns’ injury list beginning to stack up – plus, of course, their having lost 12 of the last 13 Pineapple Grapples, you’d be a brave man to tip them, which I most certainly am not.
So far, I’ve stuck with the favourites, which leaves my roughie for the week: Sydney to beat GWS.
Why? The Swans have won eight of their last 10 against the Giants, and haven’t been beaten by more than two points since April 2019. That’s honestly amazing – the Giants’ last four wins over the Swans have been by a combined six points.
Anyway, I like their form, think GWS are due a bit of a comedown, and a worst Sydney team knocked them over earlier this year. If you’re banking on an outsider this round, it should be the Swans.
Ken Hinkley. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Dem Panopoulos
Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, GWS, Gold Coast, Fremantle, Geelong, Adelaide, Collingwood, St Kilda
This would be the perfect time to bring back heritage round, when we saw all the old kits being used, as rivalries are renewed.
Some games will be great – Saturday night won’t be – but as we approach the pointy end, anything can happen.
The last thing the Hawks needed was probably a Carlton clash with a lot on the line – Sam Docherty will be playing his last game. He is a modern-day icon and quite frankly, hero of that club.
It’ll make this one close, but flag contenders will need to start to fire up as we head into August.
Credit to the AFL for this Friday’s double-header, as we only have to deal with a quarter of a Bulldogs demolition job over Essendon before heading onto the second-best rivalry in NSW sport behind the Sixers and Thunder in the BBL.
The Giants have hit form and done enough to seemingly secure their finals spot, but they’re a lot more volatile than any contender should be. I’ll tip them, but without confidence.
The QClash is the early Saturday match, which just feels wrong – that doesn’t quite maximise the eyes on that contest. It’s a couple of teams coming from opposite ends of the result scale last week, and I think we’ll see the reverse occur – up the Suns!
To be completely honest, the rest of the weekend until the final match of the round are pretty straightforward. When everyone wanted to criticise Fremantle after a single loss, I did a full analysis and stuck up for them. The Dockers are in fine form and win the Derby easily.
Geelong wins at Marvel over North Melbourne, while the Crows continue to push for a home final double chance, which will be an extraordinary rise up the ranks. They’re answering every challenge so far – September will be a different beast but for the right now, they’ll keep winning.
It’s perhaps Collingwood’s stiffest test in recent times this week – a Richmond team that has probably been the most surprising of all this season. The wet conditions mean this won’t be a triple-figure margin.
Finally, the round ends at Marvel and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is just so awesome. Saints to win over Melbourne.
Sam Docherty plays his final game on Thursday night against Hawthorn. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Liam Salter
Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, GWS, Brisbane, Fremantle, Geelong, Adelaide, Collingwood, St Kilda
Well, now it’s getting interesting. And no, if you’re asking, I’m still not off the high that was Freo’s win over Collingwood. My heart’s only just settling down, though.
Unlikely to seriously set pulses racing, for that matter, is Thursday night’s encounter – unless you’re a Hawks fan who loves Will Day. And why wouldn’t you?! They’d have won without the influential mid’s return, but this only solidifies my faith. No upset here for the Blues, unfortunately for Sam Docherty.
(Side note: what a freaking legend that man is. Footy will be poorer without him).
A night later, while the Dogs will almost certainly boost their finals chase with a big win over a terrible Essendon outfit, I’m not sure it’ll change many opinions surrounding their struggles against the best (sorry, Tim, as is tradition).
I’m far less confident in the Giants’ chances against their crosstown rivals. They’ll regain plenty of personnel, and have much more to play for, but I’ll be tuning in for Isaac Heeney alone. What a gun … in a losing side this week, I’m thinking.
Saturday’s a huge day of rivalries – and of North hosting the Cats. Talk about an odd one out! That game may be a forgone conclusion – the Cats, by plenty and then some – but the other three truly aren’t.
The easiest team to back are the Dockers, who in theory should be thrashing this Eagles outfit, but this is a tip not without significant nerves. It would be extraordinarily Dockery to drop this one.
Showdowns ain’t ever predictable, and with plenty of emotion in this one – farewell, Ken Hinkley, in his final Showdown and, hello, chances of the minor premiership for the Crows – it’s difficult to convincingly back the Crows. Injuries remain concerningly bad for the Power, which makes it hilarious to me that Connor Rozee is adamant on playing with an injured finger. That went well for him last time! Port to make it a fight, but this is the Crows’ to lose.
In the toughest of the rivaries to pick, the Suns remain much better than their pathetic effort last week suggests. The Lions are superb in this match up – winning six from the last seven – and love a chance to embarrass their younger brother. A loss won’t ruin the Suns’ finals chances, while a win won’t be as crucial as their win over the Pies, but it’s important nevertheless. I’m more comfortable with the Lions, but watch this closely.
Sunday has two games in the same city that overlap significantly. Make it make sense!
Off two wins in a row, expect plenty of Tigers supporters to head along to their clash with the old enemy. Collingwood aren’t the Bombers, and certainly ain’t the Eagles, so don’t be expecting an upset here – rather, this will be a fascinating measure of how the Tigers match up to the best.
Oh, and just quietly, a test to see if the Pies can hold onto their minor premiership. No pressure.
Closing out the round is a fizzer. The Saints are one from ten in their last games, which is absurd – they’re not good, but they’re not that bad.
The Dees remain stuck in quicksand, and while no result will surprise me, let’s give the Saints the tip.
| Round 20 | Tim | Dem | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAW vs CAR | HAW | HAW | HAW | ? |
| ESS vs WB | WB | WB | WB | ? |
| GWS vs SYD | SYD | GWS | GWS | ? |
| GCS vs BL | BL | GCS | BL | ? |
| FRE vs WCE | FRE | FRE | FRE | ? |
| NM vs GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | ? |
| ADE vs PA | ADE | ADE | ADE | ? |
| RCH vs COL | COL | COL | COL | ? |
| STK vs MEL | STK | STK | STK | ? |
| LAST WEEK | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 110 | 106 | 108 | 117 |
