Market coupling is aimed at unifying power prices, resulting in improvement of power trade efficiency but this is seen hurting IEX.
“Historically, market participants turned to IEX for price discovery. But, after this, transactions will be distributed among three exchanges and grid India on a rotational basis,” said Rupesh Sankhe, power sector analyst at Elara Securities. “If competing exchanges lower transaction fees, IEX’s volumes could decline further.” IEX shares ended 27.9% lower at ₹132.32 on Thursday. While IEX may lose market share, other two exchanges, Hindustan Power Exchange (HPX) and Power Exchange India (PXIL) may gain.
Shares of Power Exchange India (PXIL) went up by about Rs 30 to Rs 575 in the unlisted market on Thursday, post the announcement, as per data from unlistedzone.com. “We anticipate a significant impact on IEX’s profitability following the implementation of market coupling from next year,” said Sneha Poddar, associate vice president, equity research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. “DAM (day ahead market), which currently accounts for nearly 50% of IEX’s volumes, may see reduced activity as a result. This could also weaken the company’s pricing power.”
Sankhe said that out of the total 140 billion units traded on power exchanges, the day ahead market and real time market (RTM) together account for approximately 114 billion units. “This shift could impact IEX’s revenue by 25-40% cut in FY27 assuming market coupling also gets implemented for real time market products and exchange margins cut,” he said.
Before the decline on Thursday, the stock had gained 3.4% in 2025 in line with the performance of the BSE 500 index. Poddar said that given the current uncertainty, she recommends existing investors consider exiting the stock. “New investors should wait for greater clarity on how these changes may affect the company’s revenue,” she said.
