trade tariffs: US-EU trade deal could be next big catalyst for global markets: Peter Cardillo


“So, the question is, will they be able to strike a deal at, what I would consider now, the lower level, which is 15%. I kind of suspect that, that is probably going to be the case and I am also optimistic that the Indian government is likely to reach a deal and not necessarily delay it much longer,” says Peter Cardillo, Spartan Capital Securities.

Look, at the way Wall Street is moving. S&P 500, Nasdaq are sitting at record high levels. This is the third consecutive record level close for the indices. Do you think that the global jitters around the trade tariffs are easing now? Do you see more legs to Wall Street’s rally?
Peter Cardillo: Yes, I do. And of course, what we are seeing here is a market that is responding to two major factors. One, earnings which so far have been beating market expectations. There have been some negative guidance due to the uncertainties surrounding the tariffs and of course, the other one is the trade deals that have been announced. And of course, it looks as though the next major trade deal will be between the US and the European Union. And so, this is adding enthusiasm to the market. And I suspect that the market has long legs. Now, the problem is this, is that we are at hefty levels and that there is no room for any negative surprises.

By that I mean if the rest of the Magnificent Seven stocks that have to report should miss, that could be a problem for the market. But in general, the market probably will continue to rally, not at such a vivacious pace as we have seen over the past 10 days or so, but we can hold these grounds. Again, it is priced to perfection, and it cannot afford to have any negative surprises.

Now, I also wanted to take your first views on the India-UK FTA that has been signed. You have previously expressed some optimism as far as India is concerned about getting a good deal with the US. But now that the UK FTA has been signed, how do you see this impacting India’s trade relations with other economies, especially the US and its overall position in the global supply chain?
Peter Cardillo: Well, it looks as though the basis of a 15% tariff imposition is likely going to be the norm. Could that be a little bit different for India, is a possibility. In fact, I suspect India is waiting for a better deal. But Trump has made it quite clear that that is the starting point. So, if you do get 15% that is a pretty hefty tariff in terms of inflation. So, the question is, will they be able to strike a deal at, what I would consider now, the lower level, which is 15%. I kind of suspect that, that is probably going to be the case and I am also optimistic that the Indian government is likely to reach a deal and not necessarily delay it much longer.

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