India is entering a phase of demographic transition that demands urgent attention—not celebration—warns Sanjeev Sanyal, Member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council. In a wide-ranging conversation on The Neon Show podcast, Sanyal dismantled the common narrative that India is the “youngest country in the world,” pointing to a sharp and underdiscussed decline in fertility rates.
“We are not the youngest country in the world anymore,” Sanyal stated. “There are younger countries in Africa, in the Philippines, Pakistan. We are in the demographic dividend phase, yes—but that window is only about 25 years. After that, we will age.”
Sanyal raised concerns about India’s persistently outdated population control mindset. “We still have population control programmes in many parts of the country,” he noted, despite India’s total fertility rate (TFR) already falling below replacement levels. “You’ve got to be kidding me—we should shut it down everywhere, including in UP and Bihar.”
While most demographers cite 2.1 as the replacement-level TFR, Sanyal argued India’s sustainable rate is higher—around 2.3 to 2.4—due to lingering structural imbalances, including historically skewed gender ratios and elevated child mortality in some regions. India’s national TFR currently stands at 1.9—and falling.
“The only reason it’s at 1.9 is because Bihar and UP still have high fertility,” he explained. “If you take the rest of the country, it’s much lower. There are parts of India with Japanese-level fertility now.”
Sanyal cautioned southern states against political finger-pointing over north-to-south migration. “Rather than complain about UP-Bihar fertility rates, they should be trying to increase their own. UP and Bihar will also fall below replacement in the not-too-distant future.”
Globally, no country has successfully reversed a fertility decline once it dropped below replacement, he warned. “In South Korea, it’s down to 0.6. In one generation, their population could shrink by two-thirds.”
As for the argument that fewer people means better quality of life, Sanyal pushed back: “India’s quality of life with 1.4 billion people today is far higher than it was at Independence. It’s about how we use people and deploy them.”
He added, “I’m not advocating going back to having five kids. I’m just saying—if we have too few children, we’ll age rapidly without a young generation to pay taxes and keep the system running. Who’s going to maintain roads when I’m 80? Those people need to be born first.”
