There are four races remaining in the regular season — events at the Iowa Speedway (Aug. 3), Watkins Glen (Aug. 10), Richmond Raceway (Aug. 16) and Daytona International Speedway (Aug. 23) — before the playoffs begin with the Southern 500 at Darlington on Aug. 31. 

Since the latest tweaks to NASCAR’s playoff format were introduced for the regular-season championship in 2017, only two regular-season champs have missed the Championship 4: Kevin Harvick in 2020 and Martin Truex Jr. in 2023. 

Here’s how the four drivers in contention are trending as the regular season winds down. 

1. Chase Elliott (+4) | Trending: Up

Elliott was radio silent at Indianapolis, but the No. 9 team has found winning speed over the past month. Elliott broke a 44-race winless drought at EchoPark Speedway on June 28, finished third at Sonoma on July 13 and led 238 laps at Dover on July 20 over a recent stretch in which he took over the points lead. Watkins Glen is an excellent opportunity for Elliott to win for the second time in 2025 and to extend a slim points lead. 

2. William Byron (-4) | Trending: Down

Byron was in for a top-five finish in the Brickyard 400 before he ran out of gas on the final lap and finished 16th. The Daytona 500 winner has six finishes of 16th or worse over the past eight races and has been bleeding points in recent weeks. To topple Elliott and to take the regular-season title for himself, he could use a Daytona sweep. 

3. Kyle Larson (-15) | Trending: Up

Larson has been mired in a slump since late May, but consecutive top-five efforts — including a runner-up finish in the Brickyard 400 — have him back within striking distance. Watkins Glen is likely the best track remaining on the regular-season schedule for Larson, but the No. 5 team has the ability to dominate on any given weekend — something that can’t necessarily be said for any other team in the field. 

4. Denny Hamlin (-20) | Trending: Up 

Had Hamlin not missed the June 15 race in Mexico City, he would at least be closer to Elliott, if not leading the standings. Regardless, Hamlin has been on a tear throughout the summer, collecting six top-five finishes — including wins at Michigan and Dover — over his past eight starts. Iowa and Richmond are golden opportunities for Hamlin to gain on those above him, and if he can mitigate his losses at Watkins Glen and survive at Daytona, he could claim the regular-season championship for the second time in his career.