After week after week of complaints from around the footy world, at long last, the AFL seems to have nailed its prime time fixtures.
Thursday, Friday and Saturday night all feature two of the nine teams still in the hunt for finals squaring off – the latter two with major top-four implications, and the first game of the weekend between GWS and the Western Bulldogs with finals berths themselves on the line.
It’s set up to be a thoroughly entertaining weekend – at least, until Sunday rolls around and we have to endure what effectively amounts to three dead-rubbers unless Fremantle or Geelong spectacularly capitulate.
Until Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera’s heroics at the death, last round was one of the most boring in AFL history. Will Round 21 make up for it?
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Tim Miller
GWS, Adelaide, Melbourne, Gold Coast, Sydney, Brisbane, St Kilda, Geelong, Fremantle
Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way first: yes, I’m picking GWS to defeat my Western Bulldogs on Thursday night.
Why? Two reasons. Mostly, it’s because with my tipping season now shot to ribbons in terms of achieving anything meaningful – thanks, Melbourne blowing a 46-point three quarter time lead – my goal is now to reverse-mozz my team into September. If it’s anything like 2023 and 2024, going against the Bulldogs usually ends poorly for my tipping but excellently for my club. It’s a sacrifice I’m willing to make.
Secondly, well … the Bulldogs don’t inspire any confidence at all against anyone remotely good, never mind a Giants outfit arguably the most in-form team in the competition. With forwards to spare even without Toby Greene, a pacy, electric midfield primed to attack, and Sam Taylor to match up with Sam Darcy down back, I certainly don’t think the Giants should be as big an underdog as they are here.
Friday night should also be a beauty. Hawthorn are, amazingly, 6-1 over Adelaide in Adelaide since 2011 – but this is a different Crows team to what we’ve seen in a while. They’re in scintillating form, have eyes firmly fixed on the minor premiership, and I’m not sure the Hawks have the cattle to stop them in full flight. This would be a Sam Mitchell masterclass if he can pull it off.
I’m going for another upset in the third blockbuster of the round – Brisbane are injury-plagued all of a sudden, struggling with form and coming off a battering at the hands of Gold Coast, which to me makes them ripe for the kind of statement-making performance that signals the flag is still theirs to lose. Plus, I’ve still got some mild reservations around Collingwood – though a win here would well and truly disabuse me of them.
The problem with a season like this, though, is that the more genuine blockbusters we get, the less appealing every other match becomes.
Would-be finalists Gold Coast, Geelong and Fremantle should absolutely pump also-rans Richmond, Port Adelaide and Carlton, with defeat a potential season-wrecker for all three. Sydney don’t have stakes quite as high, but after last week’s humiliation to GWS I smell a bloodbath against an Essendon team counting down the days until the year is over.
To be honest, more interesting are the two battles between the bottom six. After last week’s disaster, Melbourne and Simon Goodwin are on the thinnest of ice, and losing to West Coast would just about shatter it. I don’t think they will, especially with no Harley Reid, but we could genuinely see a record low crowd at Marvel Stadium, because what Demons fan wants to return to the scene of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera’s miracle?
Then we’ve got St Kilda and North Melbourne for all you footy sickos out there. NWM could genuinely have 50 disposals and kick five goals the way North are defending at the moment – but if they don’t, I honestly give the Kangaroos a chance at an upset. I’m not brave enough to tip them and look like an idiot when they capitulate, but at some point they’ve got to stand for something, and a team ripe for a comedown after last week’s great escape seems a perfect target … provided they actually care.
Jack Gunston celebrates a goal in his 250th AFL game. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
Dem Panopoulos
Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Melbourne, Gold Coast, Sydney, Collingwood, St Kilda, Geelong, Fremantle
What a finish to last weekend. Truly superb – no notes, scriptwriters, even if the rest of the round was completely lousy.
There are a couple more rippers this round, luckily.
The Bulldogs are barely functioning against top eight teams, but without three key pieces for the Giants in Jack Buckley, Josh Kelly and Toby Greene, and it being at Marvel Stadium, this is simply an absolute must-win. It doesn’t guarantee much for the Dogs, that expectation, but it’s all we can give them right now. An olive branch of trust.
Friday night will be awesome and is a true test for both Adelaide and Hawthorn. The Crows keep ticking boxes: how does that defence, one with talent but still rather cobbled together, hold up in finals? This team isn’t ready to potentially be the minor premier.
On the flipside, people wanted to underrate and ignore the Hawks, who have now addressed the forward mix that needed to be adjusted. I’m tipping the upset here.
Saturday’s main event, the standalone game, should be fun too – Melbourne hosting a game at Marvel against West Coast. If you’re keen on going, they’ll probably offer a 5-for-1 special.
Collingwood and Brisbane that night will be super fun. Just as I didn’t with the Magpies and Suns, I’m not going to overreact to the Lions’ heavy loss, although it was worst fears realised with the exploitation of all their deficiencies, as opposed to aforementioned flag threats’ losses, which were aberrations. This will be hard-fought and close, but I have to go Collingwood.
The rest of the games are pretty straightforward, and will have margins that range from double digits to triple digits.
It might be worth watching North Melbourne’s response against St Kilda, I reckon back in the mid-2000s, this sort of game would have been a classic 190-140 score with Fraser Gehrig kicking nine. Instead, this will likely be a game with a combined total less than either of those singular scores, and the Kangaroos will respond by getting close.
Finally, don’t fret Dockers fans – it won’t be an issue, but some small portion of the supporter base will inevitably be a little cautious. Even against Carlton at home.
Steele Sidebottom and Scott Pendlebury celebrate a Collingwood goal. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Liam Salter
Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Melbourne, Gold Coast, Sydney, Collingwood, St Kilda, Geelong, Fremantle
At long last, and probably completely unintentionally, the AFL have nailed this week’s prime time games – and the three of them are, by some margin, the week’s hardest to tip.
It’s bloody important for the Dogs to win on Thursday night – and keep on winning. Them and the Giants is a surprisingly fun rivalry, but there’s good news for the home team: they’ve won four from five in this fixture of late.
It’s impossible not to be somewhat swayed by the Giants’ incredible performance last week, and the Dogs’ poor record against the best worries me. But pure motivation can lead to funny results, and I’m backing the Bullies to keep their season alive.
It’s not quite the last-chance saloon for the Hawks, but a loss tomorrow night would dent their already tricky run home. And it’s not like it’s going to be an easy battle against the ridiculously strong Crows! It’s a good opportunity for the Hawks to flex their best, but Adelaide are something else, and at home, are my pick.
Just quietly, gun to the head, the Crows would be my premiership pick at the moment. I’ll have about 27 apologies to make at work if I’ve jinxed them.
Compared to the Dogs and Hawks, the Lions are in a more fortunate position – and yet you’d still describe their top four chances as increasingly precarious. Glass half full, facing the old enemy Collingwood now is a good chance to shake off last week’s rubbish, but the Pies are ever dangerous – and may get some very good players back. This will be close no matter what, but Collingwood at home sways me.
Everything else seems easy-ish. I won’t ever trust Melbourne ever again, such was the calamity of last Sunday’s loss. It was an almost impressive type of awful – but, luckily for them – they should bounce back against a Harley Reid-less Eagles outfit desperate for the season to finish.
Both at home, the Suns (very, very likely to make finals) and Swans (door slammed shut) are hot favourites against the Tigers and Essendon respectively, though there’s more upset potential in the former.
Sunday’s a smidge more tricky. An incredibly predictable St Kilda result would be a loss to North Melbourne, but I’ll back them to conquer that mental battle, while the Cats will win by a million over Port Adelaide.
Freo, meanwhile, face a genuine banana-peel game against the Blues, but at home and in form, should be winning this. God help me if we don’t.
| Round 20 | Tim | Dem | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WB vs GWS | GWS | WB | WB | ? |
| ADE vs HAW | ADE | HAW | ADE | ? |
| MEL vs WCE | MEL | MEL | MEL | ? |
| GCS vs RCH | GCS | GCS | GCS | ? |
| SYD vs ESS | SYD | SYD | SYD | ? |
| COL vs BL | BL | COL | COL | ? |
| STK vs NM | STK | STK | STK | ? |
| GEE vs PA | GEE | GEE | GEE | ? |
| FRE vs CAR | FRE | FRE | FRE | ? |
| LAST WEEK | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 117 | 115 | 116 | 125 |
