The hottest news right now in both global and Indian markets is the tariff development. A major update came in yesterday, just ahead of the August 1st tariff deadline for India. Donald Trump essentially stated that India might face a significant 20% to 25% tariff. While he acknowledged India as a good friend, he claimed that India is charging higher tariffs than any other country. What are your thoughts on this? Japan has managed to negotiate a 15% tariff, but the situation for India doesn’t seem as favorable.
Peter McGuire: I’ll tell you what — it really caught everyone by surprise. Looking at the structure of the tariff deals — who’s getting what and how it’s being put together — and the broader context with China, it’s clear that this came unexpectedly. The impact is significant, particularly for the Indian economy. Moving forward, we’ll have to see if President Trump is open to negotiating something more favorable for India, considering the strategic importance of the U.S.-India relationship. For now, it’s a wait-and-watch situation. But yes, I believe Indian manufacturers will feel the pressure and may need to absorb some of the cost increases.
I also wanted to get your thoughts on oil prices. We’ve seen a 3% jump recently. Is this more about Trump’s pressure on Russia and efforts to ease trade tensions? Brent and WTI are now at their highest levels since June 20th. Do you think this rally is sustainable, or is it just news-driven? Could you also share your near-term price targets for Brent and WTI?
Peter McGuire: Firstly, yes, I think it’s largely news-driven. As for Russia, we’re all very aware of how secondary sanctions on purchasing Russian crude could play out — not just for China, but for other nations as well. From what I’ve read, President Trump doesn’t seem overly concerned about higher oil prices. He’s ready to ramp up domestic production. So, we’ve seen a bit of a “hot energy” spike — pardon the pun — pushing prices upward. I expect prices will cap at current levels unless we see something dramatic unfold. I also think the market was a little oversold previously, and now it’s correcting. I’m closely following commentary from voices like Howard Lutnick and Scott Bessent to understand where we might be headed.
Let’s talk specifically about crude. We’ve seen some wild swings — sub-$70 levels and then sharp rebounds. What levels are you watching closely, especially as we head toward year-end? Where do you expect oil to settle?
Peter McGuire: I think crude will remain range-bound unless there are major disruptions — whether geopolitical tensions, further tariffs, supply-side uncertainties, or weather-related outages. If weather conditions stay stable, I expect prices to stay within the $60–$70 range. My forecast is that we’ll see a supply glut toward the end of Q3 or the beginning of Q4. Up to that point, there might be some volatility, but overall, I see more downside than upside for prices. By year-end, I believe consumers will be more comfortable with oil prices than they are right now.
