Just under a week after losing a key court trial that would have protected its blockbuster drug Wegovy (semaglutide) from market competition, Novo Nordisk has slashed its 2025 sales outlook, prompting investor concern.
Novo Nordisk, holder of one of the largest market capitalisations in Europe, warned that full-year sales growth was expected to be 8% to 14%, a steep climbdown from its already-cut May forecast of 13% to 21%.
Shares in the Danish drugmaker dropped a sizeable 21.7% to DKK346.9 at market close on 29 July following the announcement. Shares rallied by only 2% on 30 July at market open, representing a subdued new day opening. The share plunge wiped more than €60bn ($69bn) from the company’s value.
The stock’s drift on the Copenhagen stock exchange nearly overshadowed Novo Nordisk’s appointment of a new CEO. It was confirmed that Maziar Mike Doustdar, currently Novo’s EVP of international operations, will take the helm of the metabolic disease specialist. He succeeds Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen, who parted ways with Novo in May amid concern that the company was falling behind rivals in the weight loss market. Share price in Novo has been gradually declining since late 2024 due to competition in the metabolic disease space.
Doustdar will have his work cut out to restore Novo to its perch in the glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) market. Eli Lilly has taken a lead with sales for tirzepatide, in part due to its higher efficacy. Analysis by GlobalData in January 2025 demonstrated that tirzepatide was outpacing semaglutide in the obesity market, the former having a higher sale ceiling forecast by 2031. Last year, Eli Lilly’s sales grew 32% compared to 26% for Novo Nordisk.
Novo Nordisk blamed lower growth expectations for Wegovy in the US obesity market for its cut 2025 guidance. Lower growth expectations for diabetes drug Ozempic in the US GLP-1RA market was also highlighted, as well as lower-than-expected penetration for Wegovy in international markets.
Lower sales have not solely been caused by Eli Lilly – the rise in compounded semaglutide has eroded market share for Novo Nordisk. These alternatives were cheaper and more accessible for patients, the competition forcing Novo to cut the price of Wegovy in the US. The company has maintained that continued compounding is unlawful and unsafe.
“For Wegovy in the US, the sales outlook reflects the persistent use of compounded GLP-1s, slower-than-expected market expansion and competition,” Novo Nordisk said in a statement.
A further blow was dealt earlier this week after a Delaware court ruled that patents for a weight loss drug manufactured by Viatris, currently awaiting approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), do not infringe on Wegovy.
