After 21 home and away rounds of the NRL, I think we have all seen enough and know precisely who will be there when the whips are cracking in late September and early October.
It certainly won’t be the Bunnies, Titans, Knights, Eels or Tigers, with coaches and players under immense pressure after seasons of disappointment and frustration.
It is a case of what could have been for the Dragons, a team cursed by some very poor officiating but also one lacking the precision in crucial moments that could have seen them turn around a handful of the close losses they have suffered.
The Cowboys have been a major letdown, now destined to miss finals and serious questions around whether Todd Payten is the man to lead them to a premiership are fair ones to ask.
For the remainder of the teams, there is still something for which to play, yet a number of the other 10 clubs are simply wasting their time in 2025.
With the upsets becoming less frequent and Origin interruptions well and truly over, a clear picture of the top seeds heading into the finals has emerged.
#1 Seed – Raiders
With 16 wins from 19 matches, a bye still up their sleeve and a minor premiership heading their way, Canberra deserve to be favourites heading into the end of a season that coach Ricky Stuart has managed superbly.
They are explosive, dynamic, consistent, well controlled and most importantly, a passionate unit that plays for each other every week. Pity all the pundits who had them last heading into the season.
#2 Seed – Storm
As boring as it might be to say, Melbourne Storm will enter the finals with as good a chance as most at claiming another premiership. Some might cite their tough run home as a problem, I feel it might actually clarify their credentials and remind everyone that their stars are match and premiership-wining quality.
Melbourne Storm’s Ryan Papenhuyzen makes a break to score a try. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
#3 Seed – Panthers
In estimating the chances of the Panthers heading into the finals, one must simply ditch the early part of the season. It was an anomaly. The recent seven wins on the trot confirm that and the two wins against top four opposition during that period tell us where Penrith are really at.
Like Melbourne, matches against current top four teams on the run home will confirm the fact that the Panthers are well in the hunt for a fifth straight title. With Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo managing games, that is simply a fait accompli.
#4 Seed – Broncos
Jumping the Dogs and Warriors into the fourth seed position is the Broncos. With four very winnable matches to end the season and two match-ups with the Storm (seriously NRL draw makers?), the top four might be a stretch unless Brisbane can get over the number two seed in at least one of those matches.
However, should they finish fifth, the danger they present in the finals will be significant.
It has been a season of missed chances and inconsistency, exemplified in the loss to the Eels last weekend. Should the Broncos find the key premiership winning ingredients of momentum and health heading into September, the premiership is still there for them if they are good enough on the day.
It has been far from a predictable season for the Broncos. Yet with stars like Reece Walsh, their potential remains. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
In my view, that is where the premiership race lies. After last week’s capitulation against the Bulldogs, it is clear that the Sea Eagles are cooked for 2025, even if they should manage to limp into the finals.
The Dolphins have plenty of points in them, a brilliant young halfback in Isaiya Kotoa upon whom they probably rely too much and might win a final if they get there. However there is a chasm between their performances and the top seeds on a good day.
Like seemingly always, the Sharks are pretenders and the Warriors have beaten up on plenty this season, yet when it comes to performances against the teams that really matter, have simply not shown enough.
The Sharks have had their moments in 2025, but are simply not of premiership winning quality. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
The Broncos, Panthers, Raiders and Storm have beaten them this season, whilst an early season match against an out of form Brisbane saw New Zealand sneak home by two points.
The story is a similar one for the Bulldogs, a team now becoming affected by injury late in the season and without one of their best for 2025 in Connor Tracey.
Canterbury have barely missed a beat this season when it comes to knocking off those below them on the ladder.
Most have been summarily dismissed, with only the Storm, Panthers, Dolphins and Broncos bucking the trend. Considering the Raiders also had them by the scruff of the neck in Canberra before failing weakly in the second half, form against the top eight reads badly for the Dogs.
Of the teams I am discounting, they are probably the one to be feared most, yet when it comes to the smart money, form and momentum built on the run home, it is the Raiders, Storm, Panthers and Broncos, in that order.
I’m happy to be wrong and keen to see another throw their hat into the ring. Yet the professional game is exactly that and the winning team will need a clinical month of football to win it.
