Perhaps the most interesting stock to buy in the market today is Palantir Technologies(NASDAQ: PLTR). The company, which is using its artificial intelligence (AI) platforms to completely alter how governments and commercial businesses operate, is up roughly 480% in the last year alone. So far in 2025, the stock is up almost 110%.
Along with that remarkable run-up is a story of obscenely high valuation. Investors are betting big on Palantir to the tune of some rarely seen valuations, such as a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) nearing 700 and a forward P/E of 270.
Palantir has its second-quarter earnings call scheduled on Aug. 4, after the market’s closing bell. If it can maintain its growth momentum, its stock will continue to soar. However, a slowdown in growth could be devastating and let the air out of the Palantir balloon.
Here’s what investors should be watching for as the company prepares its Q2 report.
Image source: Palantir Technologies.
Palantir is seeing serious growth since it unveiled its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) in the spring of 2023. AIP uses generative AI to allow users to input commands and lengthy prompts into Palantir’s powerful network in order to get real-time insights and predict the outcomes of events.
For government users of Palantir’s Gotham platform, it’s now much easier to command Palantir to tap into satellite networks to determine where opposing military assets are located, predict the results of operations, make recommendations, and offer insights as real-time battlefield situations evolve. Outside of the military aspect, Palantir’s platform will be helping to optimize and orchestrate workflows so users can make better decisions throughout the government.
Commercial users of Palantir’s Foundry platform can use AIP to help them manage supply chains, optimize operations, crunch healthcare data, and reduce manufacturing costs.
The company is seeing rapid growth in both platforms. While Palantir has long been recognized as a key government contractor, its commercial contracts in the first quarter were up 33% from a year ago, reaching $397 million. Much of that growth came from U.S.-based clients, where revenue jumped 71% from a year ago to reach $255 million. Government revenue was up a whopping 45% on a year-over-year basis to $487 million, with the lion’s share ($373 million) coming from U.S. government contracts.
That’s leaving Palantir flush with cash. The company ended the first quarter with $370 million in adjusted free cash flow, up from $149 million a year ago, and $5.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents with zero debt.
While Palantir’s growth numbers are impressive, it’s hard to say that the company is fairly valued today. Any company with a P/E ratio over 600 has far overextended its fair value — and that’s OK if you believe, as I do, that Palantir is a transformative company with a true value that still hasn’t been recognized. But that belief isn’t going to protect you if Palantir disappoints investors when it reports its Q2 earnings.
How would that happen? There are a few metrics I’ll be looking at.
Customer count: Palantir’s commercial customer count grew by 46% in the last year and by 9% on a quarterly basis. It needs to keep that momentum going by signing some big deals. In the first quarter, Palantir inked 139 deals of at least $1 million, and 31 of those were worth more than $10 million.
Revenue growth: Palantir needs to keep the money coming in. Remember, commercial work rose 33% on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter, and government work was up 45%. A slowdown would be impactful to the Palantir stock price. For the record, Palantir issued guidance for second-quarter revenue in a range of $934 million and $938 million. The midpoint of that would be a 47% overall increase from a year ago. That’s a big number, but I think it’s achievable.
Remaining performance obligations (RPO): This is the backlog — the amount of revenue that Palantir has locked in by contracts it signed with government and commercial clients, but the work hasn’t been delivered or paid for yet. Palantir’s backlog at the end of the first quarter was $1.9 billion and has been steadily growing over the last two years.
Quarter
Total RPO
Q1 2023
$936 million
Q2 2023
$968 million
Q3 2023
$988 million
Q4 2023
$1.24 billion
Q1 2024
$1.3 billion
Q2 2024
$1.37 billion
Q3 2024
$1.57 billion
Q4 2024
$1.73 billion
Q1 2025
$1.9 billion
Source: Palantir Technologies
Palantir’s backlog is accelerating, and the company needs to continue to grow its RPO at a decent clip. Anything below $2.05 billion will be a red flag, and anything above $2.15 billion will be a huge signal that Palantir’s growth story is still cooking.
I’m an unabashed fan of Palantir, but I’m not going to be adding to my position this week. If you’re looking to invest, I suggest a dollar-cost averaging strategy that will protect you from volatility if the stock drops but will still give you some benefits should the stock continue to show power.
Regardless of how Palantir does in its report, I’m holding the stock because I believe that it will continue to deliver — despite its steep valuation and high expectations from Wall Street.
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Patrick Sanders has positions in Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
