US President Donald Trump’s claim that Pakistan is sitting on “massive” oil reserves—and could even export oil to India—has sparked widespread skepticism.
Here’s a breakdown of what’s known, what’s not, and whether Trump’s assertion holds any oil.
Q: What exactly did Trump say?
On Thursday, Trump announced that the US would partner with Pakistan to develop its “massive” oil reserves. He added that “maybe” Pakistan would sell oil to India someday—a remark widely viewed as a jab at India’s ongoing reliance on discounted Russian crude.
Q: Does Pakistan really have massive oil reserves?
According to global energy data, no. Pakistan’s proven crude oil reserves stand between 234 to 353 million barrels (source: various global oil reserve databases). In comparison, India holds 4.8 to 5 billion barrels, making its reserves nearly 14 times larger.
Globally, Pakistan ranks between 50th and 55th, while India is in the early 20s for proven reserves.
Q: What about current oil production?
Pakistan produces around 60,000 barrels per day, about one-tenth of India’s 580,000 barrels/day (source: OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin). Both nations are heavily dependent on oil imports to meet domestic energy demand.
Q: Where could Trump be getting his numbers from?
Analysts believe Trump may be referencing a 2015 US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, which estimated that Pakistan has 9.1 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil resources, while India was estimated to have 3.8 billion barrels.
However, these are not proven reserves. As the EIA clearly noted, these figures are based on geological modeling—not actual exploration or drilling.
Q: What does “technically recoverable” mean?
It refers to oil that could theoretically be extracted using current technology. According to the EIA, only 3–7% of shale oil in place is typically recoverable, with exceptional cases as high as 10% and low as 1%.
Q: Is there significant oil exploration underway in Pakistan?
Very little. While there have been media reports in Pakistan about potential finds, analysts note that these are based on surveys and desk studies, not actual field exploration. To date, global oil majors have largely avoided Pakistan due to economic, regulatory, and security concerns.
Q: Could Pakistan export oil to India?
Energy analysts say it’s highly improbable in the foreseeable future. Developing a viable export-grade oil industry would require billions of dollars in foreign investment, years of exploration, and commercial production infrastructure—all of which Pakistan currently lacks.
Q: Is there a political undertone to Trump’s comment?
Possibly. Trump’s remark is seen as a subtle critique of India’s deepening oil trade with Russia, which has been a point of tension with the US. It also follows the recent India–Pakistan military skirmish, with Trump controversially claiming he mediated a ceasefire—something India denies.
Q: Bottom line—can Pakistan become a major oil exporter?
Not realistically, according to industry experts. Technically recoverable estimates do not equate to commercial viability. Without major discoveries, sustained investment, and long lead times, the notion of Pakistan becoming a regional oil exporter—let alone supplying India—remains largely speculative.
