The Dolphins have kept their nose in front of the Roosters in the race for the final spot in the top eight.

This Saturday’s clash between the rival teams at Suncorp Stadium will not necessarily decide who gets a playoff berth and who doesn’t but it’s a monumental match for the NRL’s newest club and a perennial finals powerhouse.

Kristian Woolf’s newbies are looking to qualify for the post-season in their third year in the big league after starting strongly then fading badly in their first two attempts.

The Roosters have not missed the playoffs since Mitchell Pearce’s infamous pre-season antics and subsequent ban derailed their 2016 campaign, the only time they’ve finished among the also-rans since Trent Robinson took them to the title in his rookie seasons three years beforehand.

Manly are still in the mix in 10th spot on the NRL ladder despite their loss to the Roosters on Saturday – equal with the Tricolours on points, a win behind the Dolphins – while the Tigers and Dragons have kept their flickering hopes alive with upset wins over the Dogs and Raiders respectively.

Team by team, here’s how each team is shaping up heading into the final five weeks of the regular season. 

The run home for each team

1. Canberra (36 points, 16-4 record, +152 differential)  

Run home: Sea Eagles (home) bye, Panthers (away) Tigers (home) Dolphins (away) 

Their loss to the Dragons did not cost them on the weekend because the Dogs also slipped up. Three of their final four matches are against playoff contenders – all four if you think Wests still have a hope – but unless injuries strike, the Raiders should hang on to claim their first minor premiership since Bob Hawke was Prime Minister way back in 1990.

Predicted finish: 1st

2. Melbourne (34 points, 14-5 record, +228 differential)  

Run home: Broncos (home) Panthers (away) Bulldogs (home) Roosters (home) Broncos (away)

The run home is littered with five big guns – with Jahrome Hughes out it’s hard to see the Storm not dropping a game or two.

Predicted finish: 2nd

3. Canterbury (34 points, 14-5 record, +122 differential)  

Run home: Warriors (home) Roosters (away) Storm (away) Panthers (home) Sharks (home) 

Another team with a tricky finish to the regular season so their chances of rising back up to secure a top-two berth are not looking great.

Predicted finish: 3rd 

Lachlan Galvin. (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)

4. Warriors (30 points, 12-7 record, +26 differential)  

Run home: Bulldogs (away) Dragons (home) Titans (away) Eels (home) Sea Eagles (away) 

Their chances of hanging onto fourth spot after the season-ending injuries to Mitch Barnett and Luke Metcalf are looking grim now that they have dropped two on the trot to the Titans and Dolphins.

This Saturday’s road trip against Canterbury is their final clash with a top-eight team on the schedule but based on current form, they are going to drop a rung or two.

Predicted finish: 6th

5. Penrith (29 points, 11-1-7 record, +83 differential)  

Run home: Knights (away) Storm (home) Raiders (home) Bulldogs (away) Dragons (away) 

They should extend their win streak to nine by toppling the Knights before a three-game stretch of Melbourne, Canberra and Canterbury will define their season.

The premiers have done well to claw their way up the ladder from last but the cumulative effect of Origin and the energy they’ve spent to get up to sixth could catch up with them. 

Predicted finish: 5th

Blaize Talagi celebrates the winning try. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

6. Broncos (28 points, 11-8 record, +124 differential)  

Run home: Storm (away) Dolphins (home) Knights (away) Cowboys (away) Storm (home)  

Two matches against Melbourne in the run home loom as the key to the Broncos potentially reeling in the Warriors or having to go straight into sudden death in the finals.

They flogged the Bunnies but that doesn’t count for much – they need to reverse their record against the Storm, a team they have lost to in 16 of their past 17 encounters.

Predicted finish: 7th

7. Cronulla (28 points, 12-8 record, +43 differential)  

Run home: Dragons (away) Titans (home) bye, Knights (home) Bulldogs (away)

It’s a powder puff run home for the Sharks – they have four weeks of cannon fodder awaiting them before tackling the Bulldogs in the final round.

As they have shown in recent seasons, they can put away the dud teams, it’s the better-quality ones they meet in the finals that cause them trouble.

Predicted finish: 4th

8. Dolphins (26 points, 10-9 record, +171 differential)  

Run home: Roosters (home) Broncos (away) Sea Eagles (away) Titans (home) Raiders (home) 

The NRL’s newest franchise is battling away as injuries test their depth – Herbie Farnworth’s hamstring the latest dilemma – but destiny is in their hands in their run home.

As well as rolling the Roosters this weekend, they need to jag an upset when they take on the Broncos or Raiders to be assured of a maiden post-season run.

Predicted finish: 8th

Herbie Farnworth. (Photo by Janelle St Pierre/Getty Images)

9. Roosters (24 points, 9-10 record, +20 differential)  

Run home: Dolphins (away) Bulldogs (home) Eels (away) Storm (away) Rabbitohs (home) 

With three more finals contenders on their slate, the Roosters are no sure things to snare a top-eight berth even with Sam Walker a month into his return in the No.7 jersey.

Last Saturday’s win over Manly was crucial but they will be four points off eighth spot if they go down to the Dolphins this weekend.

Predicted finish: 9th

10. Manly (24 points, 9-10 record, +6 differential)  

Run home: Raiders (away) Tigers (away) Dolphins (home) Dragons (away) Warriors (home) 

Their finals chances are dwindling after getting caned by Canterbury and getting rolled by the Roosters last weekend.

Anthony Seibold could be cleaning out his desk by season’s end if the Sea Eagles fade out of finals contention.

Predicted finish: 10th

11. St George Illawarra (20 points, 7-12 record, -58 differential)  

Run home: Sharks (home) Warriors (away) Rabbitohs (away) Sea Eagles (home) Panthers (home) 

Their playoff chances are not yet officially over after getting the better of the Raiders.

Shane Flanagan’s side needs to win all five of their final fixtures and hope a host of other results go their way. In short, that ain’t happening but St George Illawarra fans can dare to dream.

Predicted finish: 12th 

Corey Allen celebrates with teammates (Photo by Mark Kolbe Photography/Getty Images)

12. Wests Tigers (20 points, 8-12 record, -121 differential)  

Run home: bye, Sea Eagles (home) Cowboys (home) Raiders (away) Titans (away)  

It would be so Wests Tigers for them to finish the season with a mini resurgence – not enough to get near the finals but enough to breed some sort of optimism.

They were fired up to beat the Bulldogs in their grudge match on Sunday and with a healthy squad and a decent run home, they should end up as the best of the rest in the group of teams that were never truly in the finals hunt.

Predicted finish: 11th

13. North Qld (19 points, 7-1-12 record, -177 differential)  

Run home: Eels (away) Knights (home) Tigers (away) Broncos (home) bye

It appears everything is going pear-shaped pretty quickly at this club with Todd Payten on shaky ground in the tropics. 

Their effort against the Sharks was Z-grade and the kind of performance that leads CEOs to tap coaches on the shoulder.

Predicted finish: 14th

14. Newcastle (16 points, 6-13 record, -116 differential)  

Run home: Panthers (home) Cowboys (away) Broncos (home) Sharks (away) Eels (away)  

Teetering on the brink of an overdue overhaul in the coaching staff and roster.

The Knights are still showing plenty of spirit but are sinking further into the abyss on the back of four straight defeats. 

Predicted finish: 15th

15. Parramatta (18 points, 6-13 record, -153 differential)  

Run home: Cowboys (home) Rabbitohs (away) Roosters (home) Warriors (away) Knights (home) 

Of the teams guaranteed to miss the finals, the Eels will be the happiest with their 2025 campaign.

New coach Jason Ryles has uncovered plenty of young talent and with Dylan Brown following a host of experienced fading stars out the blue and gold exit, they are well set up for not just next year but the rest of this decade while Mitchell Moses is running the show in the No.7 jersey.

They pushed Melbourne all the way last Thursday after toppling the Broncos in the previous round – the new era at Parra is starting to bear fruit.

Predicted finish: 13th

Jason Ryles. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

16. Gold Coast (14 points, 5-14 record, -153 differential)  

Run home: Rabbitohs (home) Sharks (away) Warriors (home) Dolphins (away) Tigers (home) 

They have three current top-eight teams on the horizon but the only game that will probably matter is this weekend’s Round 23 stoush with Souths which is likely to decide the wooden spoon’s location for 2025.

Des Hasler looks like he will get the punt but with a stirring win over the Warriors and a close-run thing against Penrith, at least his team is showing some fight and still playing for him.

Predicted finish: 16th

17. South Sydney (16 points, 6-14 record, -197 differential)  

Run home: Titans (away) Eels (home) Dragons (home) bye, Roosters (away)

It’s not looking good for Wayne Bennett’s hopes of avoiding the first wooden spoon of his career with the Bunnies dropping like flies in the NRL’s most crowded casualty ward.

Injuries have been a major factor in the team never really getting going in 2025 but it cannot be ignored that after finishing 16th last year, they will end up somewhere similar for a second straight season, probably the only spot worse.

Predicted finish: 17th