England are delusional if they think they have anything more than an infinitesimal chance of regaining the Ashes in Australia this summer. 

Only six touring teams have won a series Down Under in the past 33 years. Since the heartbreak of the Adelaide Oval one-run loss to the Windies in 1993, the Aussies have won no less than 43 Test series, drawing five.

In order to pull off this rare feat of beating them on their own turf, a touring team needs a strong batting line-up and a bowling attack with venom.

For all the hype that they prattle on about, the Bazballsrs have neither of these qualities. 

Even after they choked away the Fifth Test run-chase to turn what should have been a 3-1 series win into a 2-2 stalemate with India 2-2, captain Ben Stokes spoke confidently about the challenge ahead in Australia, starting in November. 

Stokes is yet again injured after exerting himself at the bowling crease while his batting has been in sharp decline in recent years. 

England’s batters can go berserk when their curators prepare featherbed pitches so they can play reckless shots with abandon but the Australian conditions will not suit the mantra they have adopted since their last visit ended in a 4-0 flogging.

It’s a full circle moment for the Poms – nearly four years ago they rebuilt their entire team structure and they are set to return after all the hype of this new era to see if they have actually made any progress at all.

Their batting linchpin, Joe Root, has not scored a ton in 27 trips to the crease on Australian soil, averaging a mortal 35, nearly 16 shy of his career mark.

Although he is still churning out the runs at a great rate of knots against other countries, the Aussie bowlers, in their own conditions, are clearly his Achilles heel. 

Very rarely do batters suddenly solve a career long problem at the age of 34. 

Harry Brook shapes as England’s X-factor in Australia.

Ben Stokes and Pat Cummins. (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

He has the attacking punch to put the Australian bowlers off their rhythm and is very much part of the new breed who don’t bare the scars of past Ashes failures with a world-class average of 57.55 and 10 tons from his 30 Tests since his debut in 2022.

Their other main hope for runs is opener Ben Duckett, who has the kind of game which could translate well to Australian conditions. 

But his opening partner Zak Crawley is a feast or famine run scorer. With 17 scores below 25 in his past 26 knocks, he hasn’t served up too many innings of substance in recent times.

Ollie Pope is highly rated in the Bazball set-up but his record against Australia is a woeful average of 15.7 from five Tests including 67 runs from six bats on the last tour.

Stokes is not the batter he once was and while he will bBring an intimidation factor to the crease based on past glories in Ashes contests, the fact of the matter is that his stats with the bat in hand since the last clash with the Aussies in 2023 have been well below par. 

He’s averaged 31.55 but has tonned up just once in the 18 Tests since last locking horns with Australia.

England are crossing their fingers that Jamie Smith will continue the promising start to his Test career to counter-punch in the middle order. 

But with zero experience against Australia, he wouldn’t be the first highly rated prospect to come undone during their first visit to these shores.

And when it comes to bowling, a common denominator for successful touring teams in Australia has been air speed.

Since the West Indies pace quartets of the 1980s and 90s cut a swathe through Australian batting line-ups, the best exponents of this have been the South Africans, who were successful in three series led by quality quicks in Dale Steyn, Kagiso Rabada, Morne Morkel and Vernon Philander at the top of their game.

England’s successful 2010-11 tourists had an armada of quicks led by James Anderson at the peak of his powers, backed up by big and nasty accomplices like Chris Tremlett, Steven Finn and Tim Bresnan rotating through to give the beleaguered Aussie batters little respite. 

Joe Root of England edges a ball to Alex Carey. (Photo by Darrian Traynor – CA/Cricket Australia via Getty Images)

The blueprint for England this time around is for Jofra Archer and Mark Wood to spearhead the pace attack.

But they will be lucky to get four or five Tests combined out of them. 

Archer was only risked in two of the five Tests against India, playing the five-day format for the first time in more than four years while Wood sat out the entire series due to a knee problem.

Archer and Wood have the pace and hostility to cause havoc but it’s highly unlikely that they will be able to go the distance of five Tests crammed into a seven-week period.

England have been putting plenty of miles into the legs of Josh Tonge, Gus Atkinson, Jamie Overton and Brydon Carse in the past 18 months after moving on from Anderson and Stuart Broad. 

They are not benign medium-pacers in the style of Ollie Robinson, who was made to look like a club cricketer at times on the last tour, but they are hardly in the class of Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood. 

The quality spinner is also a necessity for touring teams in Australia. Not necessarily as a wicket-taking strike weapon, but as a reliable option to hold up an end, churn through overs and keep the local batters in check.

The Poms have no one of the sort. They trialled Shoaib Bashir against India and recalled Liam Dawson with minimal success. If Jack Leach gets another tour Down Under, there won’t be too many Australian batters upset.

Graeme Swann was vital to their success in 2010-11 but they haven’t had a spinner of his calibre since he retired before the ensuing Australian tour was even over.

Jofra Archer celebrates dismissing Usman Khawaja. (Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images)

The other means for a touring side to find success is to come up against an Australian team in disarray, as was the case for India in 2018-19 when Steve Smith and David Warner were suspended or when England thrashed Ricky Ponting’s unsettled squad 15 years ago after a raft of all-time legends hopped into the retirement lounge in quick succession. 

While there are serious question marks about Australia’s top order, with Sam Konstas and Usman Khawaja struggling big time in the West Indies and Cameron Green still yet to cement the No.3 spot, the rest of the Australian team has zero weaknesses. 

There is also the not insignificant fact that England have not managed to win a Test in Australia since 2011, tallying 13 losses and two draws due to Sydney’s fickle New Year’s weather although you won’t hear them whinging endlessly about rain costing them a shot at victory, a la Manchester 2023. 

Not only will England be hard pressed to win the series to get their hands on cricket’s famous little urn for the first time in a decade but all signs point to them returning home with their tails between their legs after another winless sojourn to Australia.