On paper at least, Round 22 is another damp squib of a weekend of footy.
Of nine games, only one features two top eight teams going head to head – Hawthorn and Collingwood on Thursday night, in a rare blockbuster in the prime time slot that no doubt this year’s Thursday curse will turn into a one-sided fizzer.
But for everyone else, though, this week has a deeper meaning: it’s ‘Don’t Stuff Up Round’.
None of the contenders, be they fighting for the top four or just trying to lock in a place in the eight, can afford to drop four premiership points this round; and unlike some weeks in the latter stages of 2025, it feels like this is the round when an upset can occur.
Will Gold Coast get a shock against a Carlton team with nothing to play for but pride? Can Sydney take a major scalp and give Brisbane another surprise loss at the Gabba? Will the Western Bulldogs’ push for September get stopped in its tracks by Melbourne in the week the Demons farewelled Simon Goodwin?
Strap yourselves in: we might be seeing a boilover to shake up the race for the eight!
AFL tipping is BACK on The Roar for 2025! Get your tips in here.
Tim Miller
Collingwood, Geelong, St Kilda, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Fremantle, GWS, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide
It’s a common phenomenon in the AFL world: the ‘dead coach bounce’. That is, when a team, with a new face at the helm after the coach has been summarily booted mid-season, rises as one to either honour the old boss or impress the new with a backs-to-the-wall triumph.
Of the ten mid-year axings since the start of 2019, six have seen the caretaker coach win their first game in charge – seven if you factor in that Brad Scott at North Melbourne and Nathan Buckley at Collingwood won farewell games. That’s a pretty strong record for teams going so poorly the coach paid with his job – and it’s exactly why I’m going into the Western Bulldogs’ clash with a post-Simon Goodwin Melbourne this week in a state of dread.
It’s not strong enough to feel the need to reverse-mozz the Dogs by tipping against them, as I did last week against GWS (successfully) … but if you need to tip an upset this weekend, here’s your best bet.
The rest of the weekend has the potential to be interesting but likely won’t be. Certainly, Geelong will maul Essendon in a maudlin Friday night match that leaves us all praying Thursday at least will be watchable; while on Sunday, on either side of that Dees-Dogs clash, expect to see GWS attempt to atone for last week’s horror loss by pummelling North Melbourne, while Adelaide should basically just have to show up against West Coast in Perth to retain their grip on top spot.
A trio of Saturday games are more interesting; it’d be foolhardy to pick against any of Brisbane, Gold Coast and Fremantle against Sydney, Carlton and Port Adelaide respectively, but a combination of the Lions’ ordinary season at the Gabba and the Suns and Dockers needing to travel – plus the Power’s tendency to randomly get up for Ken Hinkley at unexpected times – carries just enough intrigue to be worth tuning in for the first quarter just to see if any of the three also-rans are up for the fight.
Game of the day might actually be its first, with Richmond and St Kilda playing the round’s only true dead rubber – this was the game I predicted pre-season would be the Tigers’ only win for the year. I’ve been proved terribly wrong on that score, and now that it has come around I’m not even sticking to that prediction. Saints for me.
Finally, the one true blockbuster that kicks off the round looks set to be, we pray, a beauty. A Hawthorn team in great form but with injury concerns and clinging to their place in the eight, against a Collingwood team just a game ahead but suffering a slump that could cost them top four.
The Hawks are in this one up to their ears, but with Billy Frampton and Jeremy Howe back in to bolster the defence, and the fact I’m still holding out on the Pies being a major premiership contender – and, of course, the fact the Bulldogs really, really need this result to go theri way – I’m backing in the black and white.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Dem Panopoulos
Collingwood, Geelong, St Kilda, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Fremantle, GWS, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide
Pointy end, here we are.
This feels like another underwhelming round, but for the first time in forever, it might actually peak with a good Thursday game. The loss of Will Day is catastrophic for Hawthorn, who now lack their most dynamic midfielder. We know they’ll be targeting a big-name mid or two in the months of spring, but that won’t help here.
No one is more bullish on the Hawks than me – I think they can still make a dent, but it’s hard to tip against Collingwood here.
We don’t tip Geelong games anymore, only the number of goals Jeremy Cameron will kick. I say 8 against the hapless Essendon.
It’s an interesting game at the MCG early on Saturday: is it wrong to think the Tigers could beat St Kilda? I’ve been purposefully not tipping them all year, but the joy in this team has been awesome to watch. I’ll still refuse to tip them, to have an egg in both baskets.
Later, the Lions should beat the Swans, and the Suns should be too good for Carlton despite the Marvel Stadium/Damien Hardwick rivalry generally reigning supreme. Similarly, Port Adelaide will fight hard this time around but Fremantle have to just keep being professional. I’m glad people have opened their eyes to how good they are.
Sunday is boring too, although that Demons/Dogs game has a bit of juice to it. Melbourne are missing an extraordinary number of senior off-field leaders, but the sacking of a coach often has a rebounding effect. It’s laughable if they or any fans think Simon Goodwin was the only problem though – the Bulldogs by plenty to keep their unlikely march to September alive.
Nick Watson celebrates a goal. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
Liam Salter
Hawthorn, Geelong, St Kilda, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Fremantle, GWS, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide
I know we’re all very, very excited for finals – and the race for the eight is ridiculously close – but this weekend just feels a bit, dare I say it, ‘meh’. And it ain’t like we’re saving the best for last.
Indeed, Round 22’s most interesting contest kicks us off, and it’s also the only game where both teams have something to lose in terms of finals. Suddenly at risk of falling out of the eight, the Hawks’ task gets zero percent easier against a Pies side who aren’t flying themselves.
Like Tim, I’m not quite subscribing to the genuine pessimism surrounding Collingwood, but while I may have backed them a month ago, the Hawks will sense their vulnerability. Hawthorn for me.
Unfortunately for Friday night footy enthusiasts, this one is another fizzer – but at least we’ll probably be able to watch Jeremy Cameron kick a higher score than a lacklustre Essendon squad.
I’m backing the favourites all day Saturday, despite all four games having somewhat of an upset threat. The Saints got dangerously close to dropping the undroppable last week, but will be up and about after two wins and should gain a third in a row over the Tigers.
Neither Queensland side should be troubled in their respective matches, but the Lions face a trickier task against a Swans side with nothing to lose. Then, despite a dubious record for both Freo (at Adelaide Oval) and me (seeing Freo wins live), the Dockers should do enough to see off a tenacious Port Adelaide riding high on emotion.
Entering Sunday, the upset winner I’ve flirted with the most, but opted against, are the Dees. As much as the ‘sacked coach’ phenomenon could play a factor (and I don’t doubt Doggies fans may be just a little nervous), the Bulldogs are a fundamentally better side than the hapless Melbourne , and have much, much more at stake.
Sunday’s other two games are far less interesting. I expect GWS to let off their frustration and win big against the Roos, while Adelaide will win by plenty against the Eagles.
| Round 22 | Tim | Dem | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAW vs COL | COL | COL | HAW | ? |
| GEE vs ESS | GEE | GEE | GEE | ? |
| RCH vs STK | STK | STK | STK | ? |
| BL vs SYD | BL | BL | BL | ? |
| CAR vs GCS | GCS | GCS | GCS | ? |
| PA vs FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE | ? |
| GWS vs NM | GWS | GWS | GWS | ? |
| MEL vs WB | WB | WB | WB | ? |
| WCE vs ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ? |
| LAST WEEK | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 125 | 122 | 124 | 133 |
